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May 7th-10th Severe Outbreaks


andyhb

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What a disgrace, this is absolutely embarrassing: https://twitter.com/reedtimmerTVN/status/596484899588034560

 

Its a small wedge that can't keep a constant condensation funnel down.

 

A side question...Why don't storm chasers use night vision cameras to get a better view of possible night tornadoes? Are they to expensive? It would be incredible to get a solid view of a night tornado. It would also aid in the possibility of saving lives.

 

That's something I've never thought of, now I want to know what a night vision camera would pick up in a night time tornado situation. I get the feeling it wouldn't work for various reasons.

 

A tornado warning in Nevada ongoing. It has some strong wording.

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With regard to Saturday, did anyone else notice the rather dramatic change in the GFS wind profiles at 18Z saturday and 00Z sunday?  Profiles on the 12z were pretty good, hodographs looked pretty decent in central OK.  

Now there's a hint of VBV...not liking that...

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With regard to Saturday, did anyone else notice the rather dramatic change in the GFS wind profiles at 18Z saturday and 00Z sunday? Profiles on the 12z were pretty good, hodographs looked pretty decent in central OK.

Now there's a hint of VBV...not liking that...

I'm not all that concerned about VBV for Saturday, yet. It's been trending down, but it still bears watching. My main concern is a mid morning MCS leaving behind a cold pool that will make things tough to recover from.
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Might want to add that the number one CIPS analog for tomorrow is 6/8/95.

That might make me lose my cool. I've mentioned 1995 as my hope this yr on Twitter. :P Dream day. I don't rellt believe in analog forecasting at this range but interesting to see various similar spring/summer El Niño seasons show up lately.. Some coming some going.
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Already seeing some pretty phenomenal soundings out of the 00z NAM for tomorrow. Wherever this outflow boundary retreats to for tomorrow is liable to have a big problem.

Sure, 21hr forecast from the NAM has 4000 J/kg of SBCAPE and 50 kt of 0-6km shear, just east of Amarillo. That should attract storm chasers by the dozens.

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    a painful day for me.   was on VORTEX (the first one), and the armada was positioned in the OK panhandle, because we were told that "the shear in the panhandle would not support tornadic storms."   That was an exact quote.   Low-level flow was indeed very weak, but with 5000 cape, the storms made their own inflow.     We busted south, but the ongoing beast storms cut out the power supply to many areas, and we couldn't find an open gas station.   (The ones that did have power were closed, as the workers got spooked by the reports of huge tornadoes and closed down.)     In danger of running out of gas, my crew elected to try to get a look at the Kellerville tornado, but it had wrapped up by that time, and we couldn't see it from a distance and didn't want to risk running out of fuel with a large tornado bearing down on us.      All we could do was sit in a gas station in Shamrock and wait for power to return several hours later.    Several VORTEX vehicles did run out of gas in the middle of ops that day.

 

For those unfamiliar, this was the Pampa/Hoover day (also had two monstrous tornadoes near Kellerville and Allison). It is probably the most notorious TX Panhandle chase day on record.

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Not every day you see forecast hodographs like this. OU's convocation is in the stadium tomorrow evening.. that could get nasty. Almost 60 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear with >350 m2 s-2 of 0-1 km SRH and SBCAPE of 1800 J kg-1

 

attachicon.gifnorman.png

hope the met dept there is up to the challenge, and hopefully the students don't weenie out during the graduation ceremony if things get funky. cause yea, the next 2 days look ugly there.

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For those unfamiliar, this was the Pampa/Hoover day (also had two monstrous tornadoes near Kellerville and Allison). It is probably the most notorious TX Panhandle chase day on record.

 

A bit off topic, but this video of the Allison tornado is one of my all time favorite tornado videos from the pre-2000 era.

 

http://youtu.be/djk418z9cm4

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Looks like the 00z GFS ramped up tomorrow too. I have a suspicion that we may see a high risk at some point for tomorrow barring overnight/morning convection. Most forecast soundings I've seen show hellacious low level backing near the OFB and great shear/instability elsewhere too. LCL heights will not be an issue by any stretch of the imagination given the deep moisture in place and venting aloft appears to be solid. There isn't a lot to suggest that there won't be a number of tornadic supercells tomorrow in W TX and OK and the parameters in place would easily support significant tornadoes. Nocturnal threat also may be there given a cap that appears very slow to strengthen, and this could put the OKC metro in the firing line again. Watch out for initiation near the Wichita Mountains as well, like Wednesday.

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850 mb dewpoints still look pretty moist in behind that MCS per mesoanalysis.

 

Now that the southern segment has broken up into discrete cellular convection and the eastern segment has weakened some, I'm not too concerned that the current MCS will wreck tomorrow's setup -- although it will likely limit the northward extent of it more than the NAM/GFS/etc. have shown the past several days. What does seriously concern me is the potential for yet another morning MCS coming off the Caprock, which would probably be near-fatal to the hype/outbreak scenario that some are touting as a given tonight. There's no word for the HRRR but "ugly" regarding 12z-16z on the past couple runs, and the SPC 4 km WRF depicts a similar evolution. However, I will say the HRRR has been less impressive (and less consistent) in its forecasts for convective evolution the past few days than usual for the Plains. Still, gun to my head, I'd bet on a substantial amount of convection across W TX and the Panhandles before 18z tomorrow. If it weren't for that, this would of course be the most impressive setup for this region in at least 5 years, likely more.

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