Misstertwister Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 What's that mean for tomorrow and Friday? I know y'all like to watch and chase but Okies are on edge here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Misstertwister Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 Sorry. Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 Sorry. Saturday Sent you a PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 While I doubt that the MCS will completely disrupt tomorrow's threat, I do think the resulting boundary will be an important focal point for the tornadic supercell threat. This is even more true considering the low-level jet isn't particularly strong tomorrow, so any additionally backed surface flow (via a thermal boundary) will enhance low-level shear and helicity. Given the potentially extreme (>4000 J/kg CAPE) instability and sufficient deep layer shear, any cells that ride that boundary could be trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS 351 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN HASKELL COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS... SOUTHWESTERN GRAY COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS... * UNTIL 415 PM CDT * AT 350 PM CDT...TORNADO PRODUCING STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES NORTH OF MONTEZUMA TO 2 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TICE...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO. SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO MOBILE HOMES...ROOFS AND VEHICLES. * THESE TORNADIC STORMS WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN HASKELL AND SOUTHWESTERN GRAY COUNTIES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UKStormFan Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 Storms up towards KS have looked a lot more 'interesting' throughout the afternoon so far. I wonder if it may be a case of 'wrong location' for a lot of chasers today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 7, 2015 Author Share Posted May 7, 2015 While I doubt that the MCS will completely disrupt tomorrow's threat, I do think the resulting boundary will be an important focal point for the tornadic supercell threat. This is even more true considering the low-level jet isn't particularly strong tomorrow, so any additionally backed surface flow (via a thermal boundary) will enhance low-level shear and helicity. Given the potentially extreme (>4000 J/kg CAPE) instability and sufficient deep layer shear, any cells that ride that boundary could be trouble. I'm wondering if that is the feature the 18z NAM is picking up on for tomorrow with strongly enhanced SRH through the E TX Panhandle and SW OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 Storms up towards KS have looked a lot more 'interesting' throughout the afternoon so far. I wonder if it may be a case of 'wrong location' for a lot of chasers today. SPC still focusing for this evening along the Red River region where a watch will be issued shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 I'm wondering if that is the feature the 18z NAM is picking up on for tomorrow with strongly enhanced SRH through the E TX Panhandle and SW OK. Yep that seems to be the case, and the 4km NAM also shows this feature. Assuming the ongoing MCS persists and progresses eastward, I'm willing to bet the boundary will be present, but where exactly this boundary ends up is a big question mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UKStormFan Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 SPC still focusing for this evening along the Red River region where a watch will be issued shortly. I had to have a quick google of 'red river'. East of Dallas? I must admit, if that's right, it looks like it will be long passed my bedtime by the time these storms move in that direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 I had to have a quick google of 'red river'. East of Dallas? I must admit, if that's right, it looks like it will be long passed my bedtime by the time these storms move in that direction. North of Dallas along the OK/TX border. Loved visiting Birmingham way back in 1977. Thanks for being on this board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 7, 2015 Author Share Posted May 7, 2015 Early 4 km NAM runs have a very large area of 1 km EHI (yes 1 km) in the 4-6+ range at starting at 21z (or perhaps even before) Saturday. Pretty scary looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 Early 4 km NAM runs have a very large area of 1 km EHI (yes 1 km) in the 4-6+ range at starting at 21z (or perhaps even before) Saturday. Pretty scary looking. The 12km 18z NAM fires discrete convection along the dryline Saturday evening, which can easily be seen in the qpf fields. Even has a long tracker across central TX. Same general idea on the 4km, but farther east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 7, 2015 Author Share Posted May 7, 2015 ICT and OUN AFDs today are ...unsurprisingly. ICT: THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HIGHER-END SEVERE WEATHER APPEARSMOST LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON-EVENING OF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.AMONG OTHER THINGS...THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE CIPS ANALOGS. FRIDAYTHREAT IS CONTINGENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE CONVECTIVEOUTFLOW/SYNOPTIC FRONT GETS TONIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THISBOUNDARY WILL SET-UP SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN KS/NORTHERN OK BYPEAK HEATING. GIVEN RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE ARE SOMECONCERNS ON EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER HAMPERING DESTABILIZATION.NONETHELESS...IF THIS HURDLE IS OVERCOME...SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ALOFTAPPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL LIKELY INITIATE CONVECTION BYMID-AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEARVALUES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS EAST-WESTBOUNDARY...AS WELL AS FURTHER WEST/SOUTHWEST IN VICINITY OF THEDRYLINE OVER SOUTHWEST KS AND WESTERN OK.FURTHERMORE...STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR VALUES WILL SUPPORTTHE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BESTRONG. THINKING THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER-END SEVEREWEATHER WILL BE SOUTH-CENTRAL KS AND POINTS SOUTH AND WEST.WIDESPREAD STORMS WITH LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN SHOULD SPREAD EASTACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.THE POTENT SOUTHWEST CONUS TROUGH WILL EJECT NORTHEAST OVER THEPLAINS SATURDAY...ATOP AN INCREASING MOIST/UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR.GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PLACEMENT AND TIMING OFSYNOPTIC FEATURES...WITH A SHARPENING DRYLINE EXPECTED OVERWESTERN PORTIONS OF KS/OK. STRONG FORCING...STRONG INSTABILITY ANDSTRENGTHENING LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL FAVOR A HIGH-ENDOUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERNPLAINS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. HIGHESTTHREAT CURRENTLY LOOKS GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS.DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD FAVOR A HANDFULOF STRONG/LONG-TRACKED TORNADOES ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITHVERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.PLEASE STAY TUNED...AS FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY HAS THEPOTENTIAL TO BE A LIFE-THREATENING...HIGH-IMPACT SEVERE WEATHERDAY. OUN: STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST TOMORROW...ANDINCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OFSUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND THE RELATED SEVERE WEATHERTHREATS...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN 2/3 OF OUR FORECAST AREA.SATURDAY AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE A CLASSIC SEVERE WEATHERSITUATION. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG...NEGATIVELY-TILTED...SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHPLAINS...PROVIDING PLENTY OF SUPPORT FOR STORMS IN THE MODERATEINSTABILITY AND HIGH-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THAT IS EXPECTED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 My WAG is Saturday will go as big as it can. Gotta make up for a crappy few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 Already some very impressive soundings popping out on the 12km NAM (For posterity) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 7, 2015 Author Share Posted May 7, 2015 My WAG is Saturday will go as big as it can. Gotta make up for a crappy few years. Yesterday kind of already did to a degree, at least in terms of a legit, prolific Plains day. Bigger things ahead though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 Yesterday kind of already did to a degree, at least in terms of a legit, prolific Plains day. Bigger things ahead though.Despite slow start this has been a performing or over performing season in general I think. I don't believe in deep meaning to those things necessarily but they do often end up trends. At this pt go with persistence till it fails maybe. Strong consistent signal from range into close with copious moisture (that alone is exiting lately). Some wiggle room. Yesterday might be one of the biggest factors against it. We're 'due' to bust. . Otherwise... I'd expect more and stronger tornadoes than yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 The 12km 18z NAM fires discrete convection along the dryline Saturday evening, which can easily be seen in the qpf fields. Even has a long tracker across central TX. Same general idea on the 4km, but farther east. I've noticed this too, the NAM has been showing a favorable environment for a few runs all the way down into Central Texas. I'll be getting a late start that day (stupid Saturday morning final exam), so if things look interesting enough, I may end up making the further south play west of I-35 in Texas. We'll see though, I'm not exactly enamored with that option right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 Just for fun ... Enid, OK 0z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 I think persistence is the key. It's time for western lows and troughs to set up and stay awhile. Think of how long we have had nw flow this past winter into spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UKStormFan Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 North of Dallas along the OK/TX border. Loved visiting Birmingham way back in 1977. Thanks for being on this board. Thanks! Glad you enjoyed your stay, I can only imagine it looks a lot different now. A lot quieter today...dare I say...if yesterday was an overachiever...today is a bust? (So far) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 7, 2015 Author Share Posted May 7, 2015 Strong rotation just north of Jacksboro, TX right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 storms with hooks in north central TX BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 540 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHERN JACK COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS... * UNTIL 615 PM CDT * AT 540 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR JACKSBORO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 The cell near Springtown is somewhat interesting. Rotation is pretty weak with it and it's not right moving yet, but it's pretty isolated still and certainly looks the part based on reflectivity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 I have a friend in Jacksboro TX...did we have a touch down or was it only radar indicated? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 I hate to ask, but as I interpret the trends in the operational GFS for Saturday, is the model gradually moving not only toward a broader UL trough, but also a more low-amplitude UL trough? If so, could that cause the badly timed lead impulse (which helps spark a lot of convection over part of the warm sector in OK by 18Z Saturday), currently depicted strongly on the 18Z run, to be weaker/faster-moving than currently indicated? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 I have a friend in Jacksboro TX...did we have a touch down or was it only radar indicated? That cell did drop a brief tornado near Bryson per Mike Scantlin on Twitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 7, 2015 Author Share Posted May 7, 2015 That storm merger NW of DFW might lead to something interesting momentarily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 That storm merger NW of DFW might lead to something interesting momentarily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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