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May 7th-10th Severe Outbreaks


andyhb

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Well, tomorrow is interesting. Seen this before with a bimodal triple point/southern vort scenario once the trough fully ejects. TX is probably going to be under the gun either way, pretty much across the board agreement from the models of a fairly robust parameter space down there (surprised there wasn't more mention here of the most recent D2 outlook). Triple point more dependent obviously on overnight convection.

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The pic I posted is the exact time the wedge report went in. I can verify too, I've seen at least 6 tornadoes on various feeds from up there.

My velocity image might have been 2 minutes off from your post.  I generally try not to clutter up the thread with large picture files, but I thought this would be helpful. I hope everybody is OK out there in Kansas. Sounds like a multi-vortex tornado went through mainly rural area. Nathan Moore's video stream is extremely dark. They must have been losing daylight (almost completely) when the tornado started? and they tracked it for miles? Perhaps Moore still following the tornado.

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I may have screwed the pooch on not focusing enough on tomorrow.

 

we all did I think... I'll be honest I did expect more overall, but didn't expect what appears to me an EF-4 tornado from images I've seen of Cisco.. Or at least a tornado like that in North Texas... it's horrible for the 7 homes damaged/destroyed but we was VERY lucky it wasn't a few miles north, as having that go through the heart of town would have been devastating... Cisco itself is a town of nearly 4,000

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS  
1004 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
NORTHWESTERN SHERIDAN COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN KANSAS...  
SOUTHWESTERN DECATUR COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN KANSAS...  
 
* UNTIL 1045 PM CDT  
 
* AT 1004 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO  
WAS LOCATED NEAR SELDEN...OR 14 MILES NORTHWEST OF HOXIE...MOVING  
NORTH AT 25 MPH.
 
 
THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.  
 
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  
 
SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.  
 
IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS  
MAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE  
HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO  
HOMES...BUSINESSES AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE  
DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
SELDEN.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TORNADOES ARE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. DO NOT  
WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.  
 
A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE  
IMMEDIATE TORNADO PRECAUTIONS. THIS IS AN EMERGENCY SITUATION.
 
 

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS  
1014 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
SOUTHWESTERN HODGEMAN COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...  
NORTHWESTERN FORD COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...  
NORTHEASTERN GRAY COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...  
 
* UNTIL 1045 PM CDT  
 
* AT 1013 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTH OF  
INGALLS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.
 
 
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...PUBLIC CONFIRMED TORNADO.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...  
CIMARRON AROUND 1025 PM CDT.  
HOWELL AROUND 1030 PM CDT.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  

TORNADO WARNING  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS  

1004 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015  

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A  

 

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  

NORTHWESTERN SHERIDAN COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN KANSAS...  

SOUTHWESTERN DECATUR COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN KANSAS...  

 

* UNTIL 1045 PM CDT  

 

* AT 1004 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO  

WAS LOCATED NEAR SELDEN...OR 14 MILES NORTHWEST OF HOXIE...MOVING  

NORTH AT 25 MPH.  

 

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.  

 

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  

 

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.  

 

IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS  

MAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE  

HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO  

HOMES...BUSINESSES AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE  

DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE.  

 

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  

SELDEN.  

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  

 

TORNADOES ARE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. DO NOT  

WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.  

 

A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE  

IMMEDIATE TORNADO PRECAUTIONS. THIS IS AN EMERGENCY SITUATION.  

 

 

Okay this is getting ridiculous.  Not much evidence to support an "EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO".

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Oberlin may not be out of the woods just yet...

 

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS  
1028 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
WESTERN DECATUR COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN KANSAS...  
 
* UNTIL 1100 PM CDT  
 
* AT 1027 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 10 MILES NORTH OF  
SELDEN...OR 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OBERLIN...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.
 
 
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND HAIL UP TO TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER.  
 
SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
OBERLIN AND TRAER.  

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attachicon.gif123.jpg

 

ummmmmmm I think tornado chances may not be 100% done in North Texas looking at the radar over Erath county... 

a little trivia here: I found an 81dbz reflectivity over Morgan Mill TX at 13000ft (0.9degrees) at 0339z. That's the highest reflectivity I've seen. (I have not used GRLevel2AE that much though.) Morgan Mill is the same exact place that was in the middle of the meso (possibly large hail, hours ago, and again 20 minutes ago.)

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS  
1112 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
SOUTHWESTERN RED WILLOW COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA...  
 
* UNTIL 1145 PM CDT  
 
* AT 1112 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 9 MILES NORTHEAST  
OF HERNDON...OR 13 MILES SOUTH OF MCCOOK...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.
 
 
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.  
 

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I'm here in the Ft. Hood/Temple area.  Just kind of hoping I don't have to deal with tornados.  Moved out of Norman/Moore area for that reason.

 

I won't say yay or nay on tornadoes.. my gut feeling is that the tornado threat would be higher closer to DFW and the I-20 corridor than down near Ft Hood, but just keep an eye to the TV,radio etc. Don't feel scared, just be prepared

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I won't say yay or nay on tornadoes.. my gut feeling is that the tornado threat would be higher closer to DFW and the I-20 corridor than down near Ft Hood, but just keep an eye to the TV,radio etc. Don't feel scared, just be prepared

Thanks for the encouraging words, my friend.  I'll be hitting the refresh button in here like a crazy person, per usual. 

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Like a few others here who have made mention of tomorrow, given the current storms around I-20, do you think the SPC threat within the DFW area and around is still valid tomorrow? Just looking at the models tonight it seems the threat shifts farther east and south but could be reading them wrong not looking at all the pieces. With it being Mother's Day and all, I'm sure there will be many folks out and about which has me concerned.

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