cstrunk Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 I'm very interested in the bulging dryline in west Texas. I'd be sitting around Abilene give or take, watching satellite trends. The environment doesn't look too bad south and west of DFW. The storm southwest of Fort Worth sure as an interesting shape on reflectivity, but that's probably about it for now anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Brett's right, it's just too much. The best tornado threat today may actually end up in the N TX 10% area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0564NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1240 PM CDT SAT MAY 09 2015AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO/WRN KSCONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELYVALID 091740Z - 091845ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENTSUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSSEASTERN CO AND WESTERN KS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LARGEHAIL...TORNADOES...AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY.DISCUSSION...EXIT REGION OF STRONG MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX HAS ROTATEDINTO SERN CO AND ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TOSPREAD NEWD INTO NWRN KS BY LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG BOUNDARY LAYERHEATING ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO STEEPENINGLOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA SUGGESTS SFC-3KMVALUES ARE APPROACHING 9 C/KM ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF SERN CO/NERNNM. VIS IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS WITH AN EXPANDING/DEEPENING CU FIELDALONG THE SERN CO/NERN NM BORDER RIDGE...NWD ALONG THE SANGRE DECRISTO RANGE WEST OF PUB. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SUPERCELLSSHOULD EVOLVE WITHIN FAVORABLY MOIST UPSLOPE REGIME AND TRACK NNEWDAHEAD OF DEVELOPING/SURGING SFC LOW. LARGE HAIL WILL BE COMMON WITHTHIS ACTIVITY AND TORNADOES ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THE MOSTORGANIZED SUPERCELLS...DARROW/CORFIDI.. 05/09/2015 Well Well Well.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 60/20 tornado probs on new watch over eastern CO/western KS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 TornadoTitans reported a wall cloud on the storm near Duncan. Central and SW Oklahoma being upgraded to Tor watch including OKC metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Watching cells begin to pop up just south of Abilene and near Stephenville, TX... keeping my eyes on those Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 9, 2015 Author Share Posted May 9, 2015 That, and the subtropical jet that has been juiced up by El Nino. Lots of badly-timed subtle southern stream impulses this year kicking up crapvection on the southern end of risk areas, which destroys destabilization to the north. I think Wed was the only day this year where crapvection was not present at 18Z, and guess how that turned out. Given the massive WWB ongoing in the Pacific, I can't imagine southern stream issues disappearing anytime soon. This will be less of an issue once systems start working their way north. There's a reason why El Nino years tend to start slow and pick up in May/June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 9, 2015 Author Share Posted May 9, 2015 Also worth noting that Central/E TX faces a potentially significant threat tomorrow (along with the more conditional triple point threat), with wind profiles that look much better as a southern vort rotates around the base of the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Memphis Weather Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 DFW Metro placed in a Moderate Risk...per SPC /1/ PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INCLUDING THE DFW METROPLEX HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO MODERATE RISK FOR AN INCREASED RISK OF TORNADOES...SOME POSSIBLY STRONG...FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE SPECIAL 19Z SOUNDING FROM FORT WORTH SAMPLES AROUND 8 C/KM LAPSE RATES IN THE H7-H5 LAYER SURMOUNTING LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS SUPPORTING STRONG INSTABILITY. CONVECTION IS ALREADY DEVELOPING AT THE ERN EDGE OF THE STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME NOSING INTO SRN PARTS OF THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS...WITH DEEPENING CONVECTIVE TOWERS ALREADY NOTED IN THIS REGIME PER VIS IMAGERY AND RADAR TRENDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER INTENSIFY WITH SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA INTO THE EVENING. A VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE SAMPLED BY THIS RAOB IS SUPPORTING SUBSTANTIAL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE...YIELDING AROUND 325 M2/S2 OF EFFECTIVE SRH. THE PRESENCE OF A BACKGROUND BROAD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THIS REGION AND RELATED ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SRH AND VERTICAL VORTICITY WILL FURTHER ENHANCE THIS RISK AMIDST RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. AND GIVE THE VERY LIMITED MAGNITUDE OF VERTICAL MOTION AT LARGER SCALES...A SUPERCELL MODE IS EXPECTED WITH THE RISK FOR TORNADOES -- SOME POSSIBLY STRONG. VERY LARGE HAIL IS ALSO EXPECTED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Hatched 15% tornado for N TX. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Cold pool crawling. That area between it and the dryline is ripe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSWx Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Don't the probs on TW 150 seem a bit low now given the circumstances, or would you all still agree? Have they ever updated probs on a TW after it's been out; or could they perhaps create and separate a new watch for the mod area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Cell SW of Putnam, TX starting to look a bit more interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 9, 2015 Author Share Posted May 9, 2015 Don't the probs on TW 150 seem a bit low now given the circumstances, or would you all still agree? Have they ever updated probs on a TW after it's been out; or could they perhaps create and separate a new watch for the mod area? They could add a new watch if things are looking ugly in the next few hours. DFW is obviously a very high impact target. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Memphis Weather Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Here's the 19z FWD sounding FWIW. It terminated early so that impacts the thermodynamic numbers but otherwise a favorable look..as SPC implied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 They could add a new watch if things are looking ugly in the next few hours. DFW is obviously a very high impact target. current watch out until 9, I wouldn't see an updated watch until evening if the threat is still there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 9, 2015 Author Share Posted May 9, 2015 This visual shot just looks prime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Memphis Weather Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 SUMMARY...LARGE HAIL AND TORNADO POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO STEADILYINCREASE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TX THROUGH EARLY EVENING...INITIALLYIN AREAS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE DFW METROPLEX VICINITY. LOCALLYDAMAGING WINDS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND POSSIBLY SOME TORNADO RISKWILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL OK/FAR NORTHEAST TX.TORNADO WATCH 150 CONTINUES UNTIL 02Z.DISCUSSION...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY-RELATED EFFECTIVE WARM FRONTEXTENDS ROUGHLY WEST-EAST ACROSS FAR NORTH TX ROUGHLY ALONG THENORTHERN EDGE OF THE METROPLEX AND THE ADJACENT NORTHERN TWO-TIERSOF COUNTIES OF NORTH TX. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THEI-20 CORRIDOR IN VICINITY OF BRECKENRIDGE/BROWNWOOD/STEPHENVILLEVICINITIES NEAR A SURFACE LOW/DRYLINE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. AS ATLEAST ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/MATURE AND SPREADNORTHEASTWARD...LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND TORNADOES/INCLUDING A STRONG TORNADO RISK/ WOULD ESPECIALLY BE A CONCERN ASSTORMS ENCOUNTER A STRONGER CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS TOTHE EAST AND/OR INTERACT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. ASPECIAL 19Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM DALLAS-FORT WORTH SAMPLED A VERYMOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /LOWER 70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/ WITH 300+ M2/S2EFFECTIVE SRH.FARTHER NORTH...THE PRIMARY SCENARIO WILL BE FOR CONTINUED STORMMERGERS AHEAD OF SOUTHEASTWARD-PROPAGATING OUTFLOW CURRENTLY ACROSSPORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL OK. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS/SOMEHAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 9, 2015 Author Share Posted May 9, 2015 Impressive mid level lapse rates/low level shear on that sounding. The latter will increase further as the LLJ strengthens in response to the trough ejecting late this afternoon/evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 The mentioned Putnam storm trying to get going, threw off a left split already, and has strong winds with it on the Base Velocity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 9, 2015 Author Share Posted May 9, 2015 Boy that CO cell INVOF Pueblo has a mean couplet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Have to confess that developing string of pearls in north central Texas is making me nervous. Today might end up fulfilling some of our original expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0403 PM CDT SAT MAY 09 2015 ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... * LOCATIONS... NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS EXTREME SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA * HAZARDS... SEVERAL TORNADOES, A FEW INTENSE SCATTERED LARGE HAIL, SOME BASEBALL SIZE SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS * SUMMARY... SEVERAL EPISODES OF SEVERE STORMS WILL OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THE AREAS AT GREATEST RISK FOR TORNADOES, SOME POSSIBLY STRONG, AND VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REVIEW YOUR SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY PROCEDURES FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF DANGEROUS WEATHER TODAY. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO, WEATHER.GOV, OR OTHER MEDIA FOR WATCHES AND WARNINGS. A TORNADO WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES TO FORM DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA, MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY, IDEALLY IN A BASEMENT OR INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Have to confess that developing string of pearls in north central Texas is making me nervous. Today might end up fulfilling some of our original expectations. Have to agree with that, has my ears really peeled at this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Boy that CO cell INVOF Pueblo has a mean couplet. I wonder if the gravity waves developing just E of that cell could offset the somewhat high LCLs. To me the tornado threat still looks conditional, maybe not worth the 15% (more worthy of the 10%), but maybe the cells need time to mature. One thing's certain: they're heading into the one area where very substantial instability remains (and will for a long period of time), with no back-veer-back anywhere. The good news is that the Pueblo (Callahan County, TX) cell really won't encounter high population densities for some time...until it gets to DFW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 9, 2015 Author Share Posted May 9, 2015 I wonder if the gravity waves developing just E of that cell could offset the somewhat high LCLs. To me the tornado threat still looks conditional, maybe not worth the 15% (more worthy of the 10%), but maybe the cells need time to mature. One thing's certain: they're heading into the one area where very substantial instability remains (and will for a long period of time), with no back-veer-back anywhere. The good news is that the Pueblo cell really won't encounter high population densities for some time...until it gets to DFW. Good grief. You just don't stop do you? The storms initiated like 30 minutes ago, tornadoes don't just happen... The storm east of Abilene already has tightening rotation aloft, and is pretty much as classic as it gets structure wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rolltide_130 Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 I wonder if the gravity waves developing just E of that cell could offset the somewhat high LCLs. To me the tornado threat still looks conditional, maybe not worth the 15% (more worthy of the 10%), but maybe the cells need time to mature. One thing's certain: they're heading into the one area where very substantial instability remains (and will for a long period of time), with no back-veer-back anywhere. The good news is that the Pueblo cell really won't encounter high population densities for some time...until it gets to DFW. Uh that cell is in Colorado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rolltide_130 Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 That cell near Putnam is going to be tracking pretty much right down I-20 for quite some time. Looks like it has the best rotation between the cells in Texas as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 9, 2015 Author Share Posted May 9, 2015 Also, are you not familiar with Granbury/De Cordova 2013? There is plenty of population south and west of the DFW metro. My god, stop with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Also, are you not familiar with Granbury/De Cordova 2013? There is plenty of population south and west of the DFW metro. My god, stop with this. This is north of Granbury on its current heading, which targets areas W and WSW of DFW--areas that are less densely populated than areas due SW of DFW. I consider the first major population center in its path (Weatherford) part of the DFW metro area. And on second thought, the distance between the cell and more back-veer-back profiles to the north isn't very great, which gives me more confidence that the tornado threat is conditional and might be even shorter-lived than I suspected. You can see how cells to the N of the southernmost one are struggling to maintain their isolation. UL winds might back even more over the next few hours as the UL trough approaches. Such would be good news for DFW and other, smaller population centers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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