codfishsnowman Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Im a snow weenie just ask Coastalwx and a really annoying one as well just like DIT but I have severe wx stripes 06-01-11.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 I have never seen average spring severe weather (in places that are used to getting it) receive so much national coverage, I am not sure if I remember this much hullabalo over the late april outbreak in 2011 was truly anamolous and historic! I think the outbreaks such as this one are the reason the national hullabaloo has increased over the last 5 years or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 There has been an enormous increase in wx coverage in recent years... Lots from people unqualified to cover. Plus I think social media helps worst case scenarios become favored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roy Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Yeah, lots of hype on Facebook etc. So everyone assumes the worst, and then when it doesn't happen...they stop believing so when something bad really does happen, you have the crying wolf effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 There has been an enormous increase in wx coverage in recent years... Lots from people unqualified to cover. Plus I think social media helps worst case scenarios become favored. it's mainstream media too and also post-event; network nightly news now repeatedly will lead off and devote a long segment to a pretty routine severe wx "outbreak" that occurred that afternoon or night before....I mean a couple of F2s in a rural area (especially if there is some good footage) and some hail and flooding, not a town being erased like Greensburg. They often do this even when there is some extremely major international news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 9, 2015 Author Share Posted May 9, 2015 Might not be the only reason but a real lack of a good EML seems to be biting these setups in the ass. Hoping that changes by mid-month. This, the lack of capping in the overnight/morning periods has been a complete mess so far, likely has to do with influence of the sub-tropical jet. Also, the track of these systems has been not ideal for advecting a quality EML. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roy Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Do they need to dig further south to bring a stronger EML? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 9, 2015 Author Share Posted May 9, 2015 Do they need to dig further south to bring a stronger EML? No, they need to be further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 it's mainstream media too and also post-event; network nightly news now repeatedly will lead off and devote a long segment to a pretty routine severe wx "outbreak" that occurred that afternoon or night before....I mean a couple of F2s in a rural area (especially if there is some good footage) and some hail and flooding, not a town being erased like Greensburg. They often do this even when there is some extremely major international news. National media is among the worst offenders easily. Shoot they even realized a year or two ago that covering a rural fieldnado gets attention so they are all in on that. It's gotten pretty ridiculous... at some point it has to dial back or we're slowly degrading confidence in forecasting over time by repeatedly doomsdaying everything. I don't think most seem to get that it's a potential problem long-term.. too much "fun" and "shares" in the short term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Nice wake low over SW KS and the OK panhandle, with a gust to 60 MPH at Seward KS. More forecast thoughts to come shortly. This is a tough one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Fwiw recent high-Rest guidance (NAM, 4K NAM, HRRR) still show a potentially higher end tornado threat developing across much of southwest KS/Western OK by as early as 21Z, and especially toward 00Z.. all of them even develop convection in these areas as well with in this time period. Do question the amount of instability they do show though due to the atmosphere being largely overturned imo. However, does appear that nearly all early morning convection is out of the area of initiation, also clouds are beginning to rapidly evade the highest threat area. It's only 1605Z ATTM, still lots of opportunity to destabilize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 I have never seen average spring severe weather (in places that are used to getting it) receive so much national coverage, I am not sure if I remember this much hullabalo over the late april outbreak in 2011 was truly anamolous and historic! The event on Wed set the media on edge probably. Looks like the hypetrain crashes this afternoon when all the tornadoes end up being in SE CO, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 I'd still be chilling in the Childress area. Things seem to be progressing OK so far considering. Everyone just assumed that was the end of it with this first round but I don't think that's clear at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 I'd still be chilling in the Childress area. Things seem to be progressing OK so far considering. Everyone just assumed that was the end of it with this first round but I don't think that's clear at the moment. The SPC won't bust on Day 1. Switching back to the original expectations--i.e., a MDT Risk or better--after such a drastic shift overnight would be unprecedented. I know that I've been criticized a lot here but the SPC's concerns about meager instability, back-veer-back, insufficient EML, etc. all match my original concerns from yesterday and preceding days (before and after I went along with the crowd and opted for a bullish outlook for today's "event"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Well I think it's still in salvage mode. I just wouldn't give up entirely given where we stand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Noting an outflow boundary from far southeastern CO to the northwest TX panhandle. Heading toward Liberal, KS and hoping that high shear low/modest CAPE can pull it off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Fwiw recent high-Rest guidance (NAM, 4K NAM, HRRR) still show a potentially higher end tornado threat developing across much of southwest KS/Western OK by as early as 21Z, and especially toward 00Z.. all of them even develop convection in these areas as well with in this time period. Do question the amount of instability they do show though due to the atmosphere being largely overturned imo. However, does appear that nearly all early morning convection is out of the area of initiation, also clouds are beginning to rapidly evade the highest threat area. It's only 1605Z ATTM, still lots of opportunity to destabilize. Not that the HRRR has been stellar as of late, but the 15Z run keeps most of the dryline capped at 0Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 9, 2015 Author Share Posted May 9, 2015 The SPC won't bust on Day 1. Switching back to the original expectations--i.e., a MDT Risk or better--after such a drastic shift overnight would be unprecedented. I know that I've been criticized a lot here but the SPC's concerns about meager instability, back-veer-back, insufficient EML, etc. all match my original concerns from yesterday and preceding days (before and after I went along with the crowd and opted for a bullish outlook for today's "event"). Yeah because moisture and drought concerns everywhere that hasn't been affected by a cold pool has been such an issue with the past three days... Meager instability? Have you looked at mesoanalysis for any of the past few days? I don't recall you mentioning anything about insufficient EMLs either, but maybe that's just me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Well I think it's still in salvage mode. I just wouldn't give up entirely given where we stand. From a forecasting standpoint, "salvageable" would mean nothing less than the resumption of yesterday's initial expectations--that is, a MDT Risk. Anything else would be a letdown, though technically not a bust from SPC's standpoint. Additionally, I can't remember the last time that a back-veer-back set-up with meager instability in early May produced anything of consequence--not after a continuous stream of MCSs wiped out a high-quality low-level air mass. Basically, all of the less-reliable, more-bullish models would need to verify, and even they show less favorable conditions in their latest runs than they did overnight (in terms of the UL set-up). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 11:30 update adds 10% tor risk for Red river valley down into DFW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 11:30 update adds 10% tor risk for Red river valley down into DFW ...SRN PLNS TO ARKLATEX TODAY/TNGT... ANOTHER COMPLEX CONVECTIVE SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TO UNFOLD OVER THE SRN PLNS...WITH SEVERAL AREAS OF ENHANCED CONCERN. FIRST...HEATING ALONG DIFFUSE W-E OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER N CNTRL/NE TX EWD INTO THE ARKLATEX MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR SCTD SUPERCELLS/SUPERCELL CLUSTERS LATER TODAY INTO TNGT AS SFC HEATING DESTABILIZES AMPLY SHEARED REGION. COUPLED WITH WEAK ASCENT PROVIDED BY AN APPARENT UPR IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF ENHANCED SWLY FLOW ALOFT...SETUP COULD YIELD DMGG WIND/TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL FROM STORM CLUSTERS WITH EMBEDDED HP-TYPE STORMS/BOWING STRUCTURES. The bold section--plus the location well away from the most favorable wind profiles--pretty much spells a non-event from a chasing standpoint. The 10% TOR doesn't cover the area along the dry line (including Childress). Given strengthening forcing, there is no way that the ongoing MCS over western OK will clear out shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Outflow vomit surging SE out of the developing MCS is easily visible on KFDR. Don't really see a scenario where the TX Panhandle recovers from that in time. I think it's either right near the sfc low near the CO/KS border, or a "lucky" warm sector storm in N TX at this point. And I'm not that enthused about either, as low level shear looks to be substantially less impressive than advertised. I don't think you can point to this event as a prototypical example of media overhyping. This system looked very solid from a few days out - and the best in the business, SPC and NWS WFOs, bought in as much as everyone else. In 10 years of watching Plains setups, I've never seen outflow cause this much disruption to multiple impressive days in a row... not even close. I do think there's a fundamental problem with the lack of a quality EML this year, and at this point wouldn't expect drastically different results going forward unless there's a clear signal otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Outflow vomit surging SE out of the developing MCS is easily visible on KFDR. Don't really see a scenario where the TX Panhandle recovers from that in time. I think it's either right near the sfc low near the CO/KS border, or a "lucky" warm sector storm in N TX at this point. And I'm not that enthused about either, as low level shear looks to be substantially less impressive than advertised. I don't think you can point to this event as a prototypical example of media overhyping. This system looked very solid from a few days out. In 10 years of watching Plains setups, I've never seen outflow cause this much disruption to multiple impressive days in a row... not even close. I do think there's a fundamental problem with the lack of a quality EML this year, and at this point wouldn't expect drastically different results going forward unless there's a clear signal otherwise. I don't think it was overhyped on the whole... I thought for sure it was a mod+ risk tor today from range just based on the past. But it still resided in the new hype everything to the extreme environment. Yesterday CNN Erin Burnett opened with "unprecedented rare storm vortex".. to which the met smiled and nodded. I mean.. ok? Even if it did what CIPS said it would do ... hardly unprecedented. Perhaps the lull of recent years makes more typical activity seem alarming too, dunno. It's a hyperactive group these days one way or another. What made Wed so much more special than these other days? Just lack of morning grunge? Was it all the uber low levels? Arguably, Thurs performed well too at least based on expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 The bold section--plus the location well away from the most favorable wind profiles--pretty much spells a non-event from a chasing standpoint. The 10% TOR doesn't cover the area along the dry line (including Childress). Given strengthening forcing, there is no way that the ongoing MCS over western OK will clear out shortly. WHO CARES if it's a non-event chase wise... last time I checked this is about weather, not if a chaser gets video that'll be all over CNN, Fox News, etc... Just because it's not a dry sup with a beautiful tornado that can be seen for miles around doesn't mean it's not important! Not to mention a chaser would be risking drowning going in that region anyway with how much rain and flash flooding there's been in the past 48 hours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 WHO CARES if it's a non-event chase wise... last time I checked this is about weather, not if a chaser gets video that'll be all over CNN, Fox News, etc... Just because it's not a dry sup with a beautiful tornado that can be seen for miles around doesn't mean it's not important! Not to mention a chaser would be risking drowning going in that region anyway with how much rain and flash flooding there's been in the past 48 hours! I'll be down there chasing anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 I have half a mind to go sit in Hillsboro for a bit and see if I get lucky with something to my west or north. Paramaters aren't horrible across north Texas, but with pretty bad low level lapse rates, I have questions with storms potentially not being 100% rooted at the surface and also really slopping up. Unless something changes my mind in the next hour or so, I'm sitting this one out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadoguy11 Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 000 FXUS64 KFWD 091702 AFDFWD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 1202 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015 .UPDATE... MORNING STORMS HAVE STAYED MOSTLY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS BUT HAVE BEEN VERY HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS AND HAVE RESULTED IN FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING GENERALLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. THE LARGEST AREA OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST ZONES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH WIDESPREAD RAIN FELL THIS MORNING...THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS HAS REALLY NOT STABILIZED MUCH AND THEREFORE IS PRIMED FOR MORE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ANYWHERE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON BUT WE ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY INTERESTED IN THE SURGING DRYLINE IN THE WEST AND THE CLEARING OUT AHEAD OF IT. IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT THIS AREA MAY BE THE FIRST STORMS THAT CAN BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS AFTERNOON AND TAKE FULL ADVANTAGE OR THE COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL MAKE NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NTXYankee Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 ...SRN PLNS TO ARKLATEX TODAY/TNGT... ANOTHER COMPLEX CONVECTIVE SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TO UNFOLD OVER THE SRN PLNS...WITH SEVERAL AREAS OF ENHANCED CONCERN. FIRST...HEATING ALONG DIFFUSE W-E OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER N CNTRL/NE TX EWD INTO THE ARKLATEX MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR SCTD SUPERCELLS/SUPERCELL CLUSTERS LATER TODAY INTO TNGT AS SFC HEATING DESTABILIZES AMPLY SHEARED REGION. COUPLED WITH WEAK ASCENT PROVIDED BY AN APPARENT UPR IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF ENHANCED SWLY FLOW ALOFT...SETUP COULD YIELD DMGG WIND/TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL FROM STORM CLUSTERS WITH EMBEDDED HP-TYPE STORMS/BOWING STRUCTURES. The bold section--plus the location well away from the most favorable wind profiles--pretty much spells a non-event from a chasing standpoint. The 10% TOR doesn't cover the area along the dry line (including Childress). Given strengthening forcing, there is no way that the ongoing MCS over western OK will clear out shortly. Boundaries have proven in the past to create havoc in this area and very last minute at that. The fact it is sitting near a major metropolitan area is concerning enough. There is decent instability south of it and we haven't been all that worked over, chaseable or not it bears some watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 I think Andy hit it on the head in a recent post commenting on lack of overnight capping and poor positioning of a quality EML flow due to southward placement of the trough. There certainly has been enough dryness in the west.sw to be tapped if positioned properly into the system. As for today I'm liking the area from San Angelo north to the Red River eastward to the metro. Rich boundary layer moisture just waiting to be tapped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Outflow vomit surging SE out of the developing MCS is easily visible on KFDR. Don't really see a scenario where the TX Panhandle recovers from that in time. I think it's either right near the sfc low near the CO/KS border, or a "lucky" warm sector storm in N TX at this point. And I'm not that enthused about either, as low level shear looks to be substantially less impressive than advertised. I don't think you can point to this event as a prototypical example of media overhyping. This system looked very solid from a few days out - and the best in the business, SPC and NWS WFOs, bought in as much as everyone else. In 10 years of watching Plains setups, I've never seen outflow cause this much disruption to multiple impressive days in a row... not even close. I do think there's a fundamental problem with the lack of a quality EML this year, and at this point wouldn't expect drastically different results going forward unless there's a clear signal otherwise. That, and the subtropical jet that has been juiced up by El Nino. Lots of badly-timed subtle southern stream impulses this year kicking up crapvection on the southern end of risk areas, which destroys destabilization to the north. I think Wed was the only day this year where crapvection was not present at 18Z, and guess how that turned out. Given the massive WWB ongoing in the Pacific, I can't imagine southern stream issues disappearing anytime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.