David Reimer Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 I'm tired of repeating myself about this every time there's a major Plains threat, so I'll just post a couple pretty pictures and let everyone interpret. I just finished chasing/driving for 12 hours. No need to get snappy - I'm well aware of the tendency for models not to handle discrete convection well on the higher-end days (just like April 14, 2012). I haven't had a chance to look at much yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 The I-35 corridor needs to be on the lookout for any storm that may pose a nocturnal threat Sat night. I could see 1 or 2 storms going beast mode into a favorable environment late into the night. Also, don't look now, but Sunday may also be in play across more of Oklahoma, maybe as much as the eastern two-thirds. This day may turn out to be more linear, however. Edited to add: Of course, any nocturnal threat Saturday night depends on the amount of destabilization that can take place Saturday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 GFS trended stronger with it's wind fields for tomorrow afternoon too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 I just don't know about recovery for tomorrow. Temperatures at midnight are currently in the 50s throughout the TX Panhandle and even into far SW OK and the South Plains. Basically, the ripple effects of yesterday (Thursday) morning's MCS have largely wrecked the past two days already, and I don't think it ends there. Yes, the trough is starting to eject tomorrow and we should have better low-level advection for recovery overnight into the morning hours -- but there's a lot of recovering to be done over an awfully large area (incidentally, recovery overnight last night was substantially less than forecast). I might be able to buy it at least up to around the OK PH or KS border if tomorrow morning were convection free, which is highly unlikely. Right now, my expectations by late afternoon would have a contour of "decent" instability sagging southeast quickly away from the sfc low in SE CO well into the TX PH, then perhaps curving back northeast somewhere into OK pending the timing and evolution of morning convection. Will the dryline be able to get it done in NW TX or SW OK if that's the only play, especially with morning convection possibly veering winds a bit behind it and reducing dryline convergence some? We shall see. I have to admit, I never saw this coming from early in the week. I've never seen anything remotely like this sequence where low theta-e air is just vomited violently out of MCSs every 12 h, despite some of the richest and deepest tropical moisture the southern Plains have seen in years. I think Thu and Fri already would've been amazing chase days in any other scenario. Unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Arrived in Childress to soupy fog and car thermometer reading 58F. Not exactly what you'd be hoping for at this point. Edit: I wouldn't be here if I didn't still think there was some potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Day 1 mod, W KS, far E CO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 9, 2015 Author Share Posted May 9, 2015 10% unhatched tor. Pretty much all the failure modes brought up here discussed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Amazing how fast this setup fell apart. The bittercaster in me is starting to wonder if this is some kind of "new normal" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Amazing how fast this setup fell apart. The bittercaster in me is starting to wonder if this is some kind of "new normal" Law of averages, after an amazing overperformance on Wed the rest of the days had to balance out by underperforming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 If law of averages was the case then you'd thino this year would be crazy to balance out 2013 and 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 If law of averages was the case then you'd thino this year would be crazy to balance out 2013 and 2014 Actually 2012-14+ balanced out 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 9, 2015 Author Share Posted May 9, 2015 Amazing how fast this setup fell apart. The bittercaster in me is starting to wonder if this is some kind of "new normal" Yeah let's not go off into la-la land here. Are you not aware of what happened on Wednesday? Also, despite the caveats, I'm not aware that tomorrow has happened yet, unless the mushrooms I've been eating weren't portobello. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxradar 30623 Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 I can say that I am a little disappointed... however, lets see how it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rolltide_130 Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 At least the morning junk is already out and moving at sunrise. Hopefully it will completely be gone by noon and allow a few hours of sun before this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 At least the morning junk is already out and moving at sunrise. Hopefully it will completely be gone by noon and allow a few hours of sun before this evening.It may be moving a tick faster than the 6z 4km NAM progged. That model scenario did feature at least a few isolated discrete cells behind it by mid to late afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 I just don't know about recovery for tomorrow. Temperatures at midnight are currently in the 50s throughout the TX Panhandle and even into far SW OK and the South Plains. Basically, the ripple effects of yesterday (Thursday) morning's MCS have largely wrecked the past two days already, and I don't think it ends there. Yes, the trough is starting to eject tomorrow and we should have better low-level advection for recovery overnight into the morning hours -- but there's a lot of recovering to be done over an awfully large area (incidentally, recovery overnight last night was substantially less than forecast). I might be able to buy it at least up to around the OK PH or KS border if tomorrow morning were convection free, which is highly unlikely. Right now, my expectations by late afternoon would have a contour of "decent" instability sagging southeast quickly away from the sfc low in SE CO well into the TX PH, then perhaps curving back northeast somewhere into OK pending the timing and evolution of morning convection. Will the dryline be able to get it done in NW TX or SW OK if that's the only play, especially with morning convection possibly veering winds a bit behind it and reducing dryline convergence some? We shall see. I have to admit, I never saw this coming from early in the week. I've never seen anything remotely like this sequence where low theta-e air is just vomited violently out of MCSs every 12 h, despite some of the richest and deepest tropical moisture the southern Plains have seen in years. I think Thu and Fri already would've been amazing chase days in any other scenario. Unreal. Good post, and I agree. At this point I'm most worried about flooding again from these insane rains here in Central OK -- the one threat that has consistently been met/overachieved. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 GFS and NAM are still pretty far apart on placement of the DL at 21 and 00z. The RAP leans more toward the NAM in that regard. The RAP has CAPE back at 4000 plus over central and western OK. So much convection ongoing though, I'm just not sure things can recover. Trying to decide if I want to go out today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Moderate Risk dropped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UKStormFan Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Highly dissapointing news, had marked today down as the best day of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 el oh el. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Might not be the only reason but a real lack of a good EML seems to be biting these setups in the ass. Hoping that changes by mid-month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Near-term trends do what to punch that MCS out of W KS/OK PH and TX NE PH fairly quickly, but all we're left with is a narrow potential stripe of modest instability. Maybe the very strong shear can overcome some of that, but then there's the backing wind issue aloft. Instead of what looked like a no-doubter tornado outbreak is turning into a "can we manage one or two tornadic supercells along the dryline" event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rolltide_130 Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Near-term trends do what to punch that MCS out of W KS/OK PH and TX NE PH fairly quickly, but all we're left with is a narrow potential stripe of modest instability. Maybe the very strong shear can overcome some of that, but then there's the backing wind issue aloft. Instead of what looked like a no-doubter tornado outbreak is turning into a "can we manage one or two tornadic supercells along the dryline" event. That's pretty much been the story all spring so far. Not sure why the models have been doing this, but pretty much every setup since April has looked threatening in the medium range, and then gets absolutely destroyed once we're within 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Yeah huge disappointment today. Tomorrow looks much better for the DFW area at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Always sad when lives may not be lost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Always sad when lives may not be lost. Stick to your own forum Scott nobody wants snow weenies here. Happy belated b-day btw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 It definitely had its apparent potential issues. I tend to hug 500mb till short term tho so I'm surprised this is where we end up to a degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 the hype on tv regarding this...especially Saturday was just ridiculous, akin to a historic east coast blizzard that vanished out to sea...I just wonder if there is a hype/wishcasting bias with this stuff?? Reading through the thread it seems there was always some reasons to be doubtful but on tv they made it sound like the end of the world was coming to Tornado Alley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Stick to your own forum Scott nobody wants snow weenies here. Happy belated b-day btw Thanks. I enjoy a good outbreak as much as anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 I have never seen average spring severe weather (in places that are used to getting it) receive so much national coverage, I am not sure if I remember this much hullabalo over the late april outbreak in 2011 was truly anamolous and historic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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