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May 7th-10th Severe Outbreaks


andyhb

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Hanging out in Seymour. It's really starting to heat up. Mostly sunny sky to the south. It had been BKN when I pulled in a lot a half hour ago. Clear SE low-level flow. Should be some big fireworks in a few hours.

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Lubbock storm is already undercut (for now, I should add, after the Moore debacle in March).

kinda trying to pull it back north but all those other cells now.. Prob going to have to see how that plays out first.
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I would watch the stuff that's currently SSE of Childress, TX to see if a dominant cell will emerge and start to root itself on the boundary.  It looks to be on the cool side of the boundary at the moment, but I think at some point during the next couple hours, the retreating boundary will meet up and overtake the cell.  At that point, it would have access to excellent low-level shear amidst the locally-backed surface flow, not to mention the extreme instability.

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I would watch the stuff that's currently SSE of Childress, TX to see if a dominant cell will emerge and start to root itself on the boundary.  It looks to be on the cool side of the boundary at the moment, but I think at some point during the next couple hours, the retreating boundary will meet up and overtake the cell.  At that point, it would have access to excellent low-level shear amidst the locally-backed surface flow, not to mention the extreme instability.

 

Already looks like it has strong rotation aloft.

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Tornado watch for SE Colorado-- it is only 57 degrees at Pueblo and they have severe-warned storms near there.

 

Yeah, I noticed earlier that the HRRRX seemed to like that area this afternoon, despite the cool surface.  Looks like the op HRRR is catching on now too.  Cold 500mb temps + veered flow for the win. 

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FWIW, mesoanalysis showing STP of 5 ahead of the SW cell, that's approaching Spur. These storms will be dropping into a very favorable environment. Any discrete cells that pops could rotate very quickly, especially late this afternoon.

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Southernmost (Crosbyton) storm is looking less outflowy at this point. More pronounced hook and good rotation aloft. Might be the next to go.

 

Going to be surface based soon as the inflow locally pulls the outflow boundary north.

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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
347 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015

TXC125-263-082115-
/O.CON.KLUB.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-150508T2115Z/
KENT TX-DICKENS TX-
347 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN KENT AND SOUTHERN DICKENS COUNTIES...
    
AT 346 PM CDT...A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED
NEAR SPUR...OR 10 MILES SOUTH OF DICKENS...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.
THIS STORM IS EXHIBITING VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL ROTATION ON RADAR.  
IF LOCATED IN SPUR TAKE SHELTER NOW.


THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO
         ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL
         BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SPUR AND GIRARD.
 

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0549
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0345 PM CDT FRI MAY 08 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 143...

   VALID 082045Z - 082215Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 143 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE TORNADO RISK IS STEADILY INCREASING ACROSS THE WESTERN
   PART OF NORTH TX AND SOUTHWEST OK...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS ROUGHLY 40
   MILES EITHER SIDE OF THE RED RIVER...WHILE OTHER SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO EAST-CENTRAL
   OK. TORNADO WATCH 143 CONTINUES UNTIL 02Z.

   DISCUSSION...IN VICINITY OF A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEASTWARD ORIENTED
   FRONTAL ZONE AND NEARBY CORRIDOR OF MODIFYING OUTFLOW...SUPERCELLS
   HAVE INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS ACROSS SOUTHWEST OK AND THE
   WESTERN PART OF NORTH TX AMID A VERY MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE
   ENVIRONMENT. LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN A DISTINCT CONCERN...AND THE
   TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO HAVE INCREASED VIA RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
   INFLUENCE AND BACKING/STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY
   WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF NORTH TX/IMMEDIATE RED RIVER
   VICINITY. THE FREDERICK WSR-88D VWP SUPPORTS AT LEAST 150-200 M2/S2
   OF 0-1 KM SRH.

   FARTHER NORTH...WHILE CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN SLOW TO ABATE ACROSS
   PARTS OF OK...STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
   CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL OK IN
   VICINITY OF SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE AND SUBSEQUENT/REINFORCING OUTFLOW.

   ..GUYER.. 05/08/2015

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