brettjrob Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 Sitting in SPS... agree that the situation along the Red southward into NW TX is looking more volatile than I had expected this morning. HRRR looks quite favorable for the general area affected on 10 April 1979. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSWx Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 Solid rotation on that Hollis storm, probably needs to be warned soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 Hanging out in Seymour. It's really starting to heat up. Mostly sunny sky to the south. It had been BKN when I pulled in a lot a half hour ago. Clear SE low-level flow. Should be some big fireworks in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 Very high reflectivity aloft just south of Lubbock. This storm could be developing a meso and an RFD south of Lubbcok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSWx Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 Very high reflectivity aloft just south of Lubbock. This storm could be developing a meso and an RFD south of Lubbcok Is that an early hook echo forming at the tail end of the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 Lubbock storm is already undercut (for now, I should add, after the Moore debacle in March). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 Is that an early hook echo forming at the tail end of the storm? This storm is close to the warm air/cold air boundary, so it is ever so close to being able to use the very high surface CAPE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 Lubbock storm is already undercut (for now, I should add, after the Moore debacle in March). There is a storm forming just to its east right near the boundary, although it too looks like it might fall behind the outflow unless it starts turning right immediately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 Lubbock storm is already undercut (for now, I should add, after the Moore debacle in March).kinda trying to pull it back north but all those other cells now.. Prob going to have to see how that plays out first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 Lubbock storm is already undercut (for now, I should add, after the Moore debacle in March). Trying to get sfc-based CI in Haskell County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 Trying to get sfc-based CI in Haskell County.About 10 miles NE of Haskell, towering cu field directly overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 I would watch the stuff that's currently SSE of Childress, TX to see if a dominant cell will emerge and start to root itself on the boundary. It looks to be on the cool side of the boundary at the moment, but I think at some point during the next couple hours, the retreating boundary will meet up and overtake the cell. At that point, it would have access to excellent low-level shear amidst the locally-backed surface flow, not to mention the extreme instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 Tornado watch for SE Colorado-- it is only 57 degrees at Pueblo and they have severe-warned storms near there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 8, 2015 Author Share Posted May 8, 2015 I would watch the stuff that's currently SSE of Childress, TX to see if a dominant cell will emerge and start to root itself on the boundary. It looks to be on the cool side of the boundary at the moment, but I think at some point during the next couple hours, the retreating boundary will meet up and overtake the cell. At that point, it would have access to excellent low-level shear amidst the locally-backed surface flow, not to mention the extreme instability. Already looks like it has strong rotation aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 80/70 at Wichita Falls with se wind 17/ gust to 23. Lawton 76/71 wind se 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 8, 2015 Author Share Posted May 8, 2015 Tornado warning for that storm, good call as always CU. Does need to shake some of that precip from its RFD though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 Tornado watch for SE Colorado-- it is only 57 degrees at Pueblo and they have severe-warned storms near there. Yeah, I noticed earlier that the HRRRX seemed to like that area this afternoon, despite the cool surface. Looks like the op HRRR is catching on now too. Cold 500mb temps + veered flow for the win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 Velocity couplet impressive on the Frederick radar.for that tor warned storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 Southernmost (Crosbyton) storm is looking less outflowy at this point. More pronounced hook and good rotation aloft. Might be the next to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 FWIW, mesoanalysis showing STP of 5 ahead of the SW cell, that's approaching Spur. These storms will be dropping into a very favorable environment. Any discrete cells that pops could rotate very quickly, especially late this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 8, 2015 Author Share Posted May 8, 2015 Southernmost (Crosbyton) storm is looking less outflowy at this point. More pronounced hook and good rotation aloft. Might be the next to go. Going to be surface based soon as the inflow locally pulls the outflow boundary north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 0-3 km SRH increasing markedly around our pair of storms....up to 400 m2/s2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 Storm near Spur TX is on the boundary, possibly sucking in some of the warm air. That storm may get a tornado warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 Boundary currently drifting through Vernon is going to interact with the tornado-warned supercell soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 Storm near Spur TX is on the boundary, possibly sucking in some of the warm air. That storm may get a tornado warning. Rotation increasingly significantly on that cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 Spur storm is tornado warned now. Not very picturesque though from what i'm seeing on the Matt Grantham's live stream though. All I can see is a rain-muddled wall of dark clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 Spur, TX may have just gotten whacked if there is indeed a tornado with that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 8, 2015 Author Share Posted May 8, 2015 Warning has a large tornado near Spur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX347 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015TXC125-263-082115-/O.CON.KLUB.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-150508T2115Z/KENT TX-DICKENS TX-347 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM CDT FORNORTHEASTERN KENT AND SOUTHERN DICKENS COUNTIES... AT 346 PM CDT...A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATEDNEAR SPUR...OR 10 MILES SOUTH OF DICKENS...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.THIS STORM IS EXHIBITING VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL ROTATION ON RADAR. IF LOCATED IN SPUR TAKE SHELTER NOW.THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...SPUR AND GIRARD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0549 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0345 PM CDT FRI MAY 08 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 143... VALID 082045Z - 082215Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 143 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...THE TORNADO RISK IS STEADILY INCREASING ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF NORTH TX AND SOUTHWEST OK...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS ROUGHLY 40 MILES EITHER SIDE OF THE RED RIVER...WHILE OTHER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO EAST-CENTRAL OK. TORNADO WATCH 143 CONTINUES UNTIL 02Z. DISCUSSION...IN VICINITY OF A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEASTWARD ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE AND NEARBY CORRIDOR OF MODIFYING OUTFLOW...SUPERCELLS HAVE INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS ACROSS SOUTHWEST OK AND THE WESTERN PART OF NORTH TX AMID A VERY MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN A DISTINCT CONCERN...AND THE TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO HAVE INCREASED VIA RESIDUAL OUTFLOW INFLUENCE AND BACKING/STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF NORTH TX/IMMEDIATE RED RIVER VICINITY. THE FREDERICK WSR-88D VWP SUPPORTS AT LEAST 150-200 M2/S2 OF 0-1 KM SRH. FARTHER NORTH...WHILE CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN SLOW TO ABATE ACROSS PARTS OF OK...STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL OK IN VICINITY OF SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE AND SUBSEQUENT/REINFORCING OUTFLOW. ..GUYER.. 05/08/2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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