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Severe & Flooding Potential: May 3-6, 2015


Quincy

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I could see the SIG expanding south if the high-res models continue to/begin to show initiation in western Oklahoma. Anywhere between Elk City to El Reno and points north could get a rude surprise if a cell develops and tracks in a bad direction this afternoon.

 

I am actually a bit surprised there wasn't an upgrade in tornado probs in the southern enhanced area. Most models are consistent in ramping up low level shear rapidly this evening along most of the dryline and the better upper level flow is in this region.

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Yeah, I really like the corridor between I-40 and the OK/KS border the best as of now. Neither the H5 nor anvil-level flow is prohibitively weak in and around that area, and CAMs are consistently pegging it for initiation of at least one or two storms.

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SPC seems to be hugging the storm scale ensemble

https://twitter.com/gcarbin/status/595994366168043520

Of course the 500 vort is best in that northern area but was kind of surprised the hatching so far north.

Personally I do think it's a bit far north, especially into southern Nebraska. Drove south from there this morning and it's a fairly thick overcast. Can't imagine too much destabilization is able to take place. Storm mode could get quite messy north of I-70.
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Personally I do think it's a bit far north, especially into southern Nebraska. Drove south from there this morning and it's a fairly thick overcast. Can't imagine too much destabilization is able to take place. Storm mode could get quite messy north of I-70.

Yeah I could maybe see it to the KS/NE border to be safe but north of that not sure... I'd prob go for the KS/OK border target as well.. though the SW OK/Red River area might be tempting. 

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Definitely an interesting day setting up with any storm that fires up in OK/KS capable of producing significant severe weather. Even parts of Northwest Texas could get in on the fun later today with impressive low level shear. I'm about to head out to the KS/OK border about two counties west of I-35 most likely to stay in play for southern Kansas but also an eye on any storms that fire up in W OK. 

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KSC105-061945-  
/O.CON.KICT.TO.W.0014.000000T0000Z-150506T1945Z/  
LINCOLN KS-  
228 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015  
 
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM CDT FOR EASTERN  
LINCOLN COUNTY...  
      
AT 228 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR   
LINCOLN...MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH.
 
 
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.   
 
SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.   
 

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS  
240 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  NORTHEASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...  
 
* UNTIL 315 PM CDT  
 
* AT 240 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO  
  WAS LOCATED NEAR LINCOLN...MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.  
 
  THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.   
 
  HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.   
 
  SOURCE...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO.   
 
  IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS   
           MAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE   
           HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO   
           HOMES...BUSINESSES AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE   
           DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE.   
 
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...  
  BARNARD AROUND 250 PM CDT.  
 
#   
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING TORNADOES. TAKE COVER IN A  
BASEMENT OR STORM SHELTER NOW!

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK  
245 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  SOUTHEASTERN CADDO COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...  
 
* UNTIL 315 PM CDT  
      
* AT 245 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
  TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR APACHE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.  
 
  HAZARD...TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.   
 
  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.   
 
  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT   
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.   
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE   
           DAMAGE IS LIKELY.   
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
  ANADARKO...APACHE...CYRIL...VERDEN...CEMENT...NORTHERN LAKE  
  ELLSWORTH AND STECKER.

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This cell is also rotating per OUN.

 

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
303 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHERN BLAINE COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...
  SOUTHEASTERN MAJOR COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 345 PM CDT

* AT 303 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHEAST
  OF CANTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

  IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE
           TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  OKEENE...AMES...ISABELLA...SOUTHARD AND HOMESTEAD.

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