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Severe & Flooding Potential: May 3-6, 2015


Quincy

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 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0527
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0808 PM CDT WED MAY 06 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CENTRAL OK/WRN N TX

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 133...

   VALID 070108Z - 070215Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 133 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED SEVERE/SUPERCELL STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF
   WW 133 -- WHERE ALL-HAZARD SEVERE RISK PERSISTS.

   DISCUSSION...SEVERAL SEVERE/SUPERCELL STORMS ARE ONGOING ATTM FROM
   CENTRAL KS SWD INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS...IN AT LEAST THREE CLUSTERS
   -- ONE OVER NRN OK...ONE OVER CENTRAL OK...AND A THIRD OVER SWRN
   OK/WRN N TX.  STORM COVERAGE HAS GRADUALLY INCREASED -- PARTICULARLY
   OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE WW AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED
   ASCENT/WARM ADVECTION INCREASE.  

   ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT SEVERE RISK -- MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LARGE
   HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS -- MAY CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS...GIVEN A BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT WHICH REMAINS
   SUPPORTIVE FOR SUPERCELLS.  WHILE TENDENCY MAY BE FOR
   CLUSTERING/MESSIER STORM MODE WITH TIME -- AND AN INCREASE IN RISK
   FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...SEVERE/ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL LIKELY TO
   PERSIST BEYOND 02Z /THE SCHEDULED EXPIRATION FOR WW 133/ SUGGESTS
   THAT A NEW WW FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THIS AREA WILL BE NEEDED.

   ..GOSS.. 05/07/2015

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This has become one of the more prolific Plains tornado outbreaks in recent years, a lot of areas along the dryline have seen tornadic supercells today, with concentrations in N KS/S NE and the OKC metro.

 

Tornado warning In Archer County, TX now too, and the inflow into the Tuttle cell is amazing.

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Many of these storms seem to be having some outflow issues, each RFD surge undercuts the meso pretty quickly after the tornado touches down.

 

EDIT: talking about the past hour or so in OK/S KS only

Pardon my question, but with such favorable thermodynamics in place, why are the storms near OKC outflow-dominant?

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Pardon my question, but with such favorable thermodynamics in place, why are the storms near OKC outflow-dominant?

 

Because a lot of them are quite high precip. Precip loading of the RFD often allows them to cut off the inflow more efficiently.

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Yeah, H5 flow is slowing decreasing. The lack of stronger deep layer shear has probably the saving grace for OKC metro (so far).

 

Well the storms have largely gone south of the OKC proper. Also...tempting fate.

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KOKC 070052Z 28031G39KT 1/4SM R35R/3000VP6000FT +TSGSRA FG BKN014 OVC020CB 18/17 A2976 RMK AO2 PK WND 31039/0048 WSHFT 2350 GSB2358E32B52GRB32E52 SLP069 CONS LTGCGICCC OHD-ALQDS TS OHD-ALQDS MOV NE GR 1 P0304 T01830167

 

1" hail and 3.04" of rain in OKC's last ob.

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I'm thinking the main threat in the OKC area as of now is flooding. That cell/cluster could still drop tornadoes like it has, but the ones it has been dropping recently have been weak and very brief, and I don't see that changing for the most part. The Kansas cells have still been fairly impressive to me wrt tornado potential though (*EDIT: and even those have been waining the last few scans).

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