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May Obs And Daily Disco


wxdude64

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   the last few HRRR cycles break out a cell or two right around the District in the next 2 hours and intensify it over the east-southeastern suburbs.    will be interesting to see if anything like this occurs.

Looks like it develops it in PG and moves it east... thats the only storm I see affecting anyone in the LWX CWA

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   the 15 minute output of the 14z cycle actually has it forming over the District (or maybe even Alexandria), but we're splitting hairs.   agreed that this would probably be the only cell if it happens at all.

 

Looks like it develops it in PG and moves it east... thats the only storm I see affecting anyone in the LWX CWA

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I meant more that it's pretty darn impressive so far. If the tables were turned and this was January and we were -8 and the ensembles continued a similar pattern into the future people would be pumped about all the cold wind we were getting. Sure, nothing extreme temp wise.. just a slow consistent "boil" for the last 10 or so.

I'd take the under on the final May temp if for nothing else +8 is pretty ridiculous for a whole month. But I don't really see any signs of sustained cool weather down the road. If anything it seems June wants to 'torch' the whole country. Suppose Nino climo argues we'll break it at some point during JJA... tho we are already seeing how we can be warm with a continual Nino background state well underway.

Transition months like May and Oct don't get much attention. It's been warm but kinda boring warm if you ask me. L-M 80's aren't a big deal.

On the flip side, the inter-mountain west has been quite chilly. They're running -10 in a lot of areas. So it's a tale of two halves of the US vs an outright torch. In a simpleton view it seems that it's a rubber band snap getting things back to normal. Since Jan 1st we're still running below normal on the means.

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Transition months like May and Oct don't get much attention. It's been warm but kinda boring warm if you ask me. L-M 80's aren't a big deal.

On the flip side, the inter-mountain west has been quite chilly. They're running -10 in a lot of areas. So it's a tale of two halves of the US vs an outright torch. In a simpleton view it seems that it's a rubber band snap getting things back to normal. Since Jan 1st we're still running below normal on the means.

 

Flip-flop

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Have you looked at the forecast for the rest of the week?

 

My forecast shows 2 days (tomorrow and Thur) AOB, then right back to AOA by Friday and beyond.  Given that I'm currently sitting +12F (highs) for the month, I don't see any reason to celebrate a brief return to average.  Though I'm looking forward to tomorrow and tomorrow night, for sure.

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Would be a beautiful evening if it weren't for the clouds of pollen blowing around. That stuff is legitamately hellish.

 

For sure.  Would love to enjoy a nice evening out, but the wind is just whipping that stuff like a blizzard.  My eyes start itching and burning the moment I walk outside, and that is with my allergy medication.  Humidity feels very low now.

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I just stepped out to drop off some neighbor's mail I rec'd and along the way was thinking, gee, the pollen is REALLY heavy right now...feels like it's swirling all around me. Then I realized to my horror that I was actually enveloped in an epic swarm of MIDGES. Bleeeccch!!! I'm sure I ate and inhaled a few dozen as I scurried back. I think another 200 or so made it inside.

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