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May Obs And Daily Disco


wxdude64

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     are you just going on the soundings?   the model QPF shows that the best chances would be early to mid-afternoon with some of the outer bands of Ana.    The HRRR seems to show the same thing.    It had been looking like it would stay southeast of DC, and I think that may still be the case, although the HRRR trends are to bring some showers into DC and the eastern burbs.

 

      one other possibility is tomorrow afternoon along the front.    The NAM nest initiates storms east of DC, but if we can just slow down the front by a couple of hours, we'd have a chance for some isolated cells.

 

 

12z NAM likes some storms for tonight... even though shear sucks, decent sounding anyway

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     are you just going on the soundings?   the model QPF shows that the best chances would be early to mid-afternoon with some of the outer bands of Ana.    The HRRR seems to show the same thing.    It had been looking like it would stay southeast of DC, and I think that may still be the case, although the HRRR trends are to bring some showers into DC and the eastern burbs.

 

      one other possibility is tomorrow afternoon along the front.    The NAM nest initiates storms east of DC, but if we can just slow down the front by a couple of hours, we'd have a chance for some isolated cells.

 

I was more watching for tonight since the updated morning LWX AFD mentioned something about tonight, even though it will prob only affect the NW part of the LWX CWA:

 

 

 

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

WHILE ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE

EVENING...WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE UPSTREAM AS THERE ARE SOME

INDICATIONS ORGANIZED STORMS COULD APPROACH THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS

DURING THE EVENING HOURS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING

COINCIDENT WITH THIS ACTIVITY...SO SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE

STRONG IF THIS SCENARIO HAPPENS. EXPECT A WEAKENING TREND TO ANY

STORMS...BUT AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY ALLOW SOME SHOWERS TO

CONTINUE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. MUGGY OVERNIGHT LOWS IN

THE MID 60S.

 

We shall see what happens

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    ok, yeah, very likely that a line will be affecting the areas well west of DC later today and into the evening, but (as you note, saying that the threat is well west and northwest of here)  all guidance has it falling apart well before getting in close to the city.    but some smaller but heavy showers now are developing in the local area, consistent with the hi-res guidance.

 

 

I was more watching for tonight since the updated morning LWX AFD mentioned something about tonight, even though it will prob only affect the NW part of the LWX CWA:

 

 

 

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May 1991 - It will be tough to get there without a big heat wave..still remarkable that we are only running 2 degrees behind the entire month through yesterday

Looks pretty tame down the line. We'll tally a couple neg dep days in the next 5 days or so. Ens are hinting at another possible coolish spell inside of d10. Month is going to end up solid + either way but imo prob not in memorable fashion.

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Really sucks to have sustained warm / muggy pattern during the last window of opportunity for nice weather before summer sets in. Just terrible timing.

Euro ens/GEFS show a similar setup inside of 10 days to what we are going to see over the next 3-4 days. If anything, we are moving into a better pattern the second half of the month if you like shots of low humidity continental airmasses. Overall, it looks pretty pleasant for a while once we get past today. Not saying there won't be warm humid days in the mix but there will be relief at times.

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Main saving grace might be pattern remains pretty active so it's harder to get fully locked into anything. That said a main constant on ensembles is higher than normal heights around here which shpuld be warm in the means. Maybe not terrible nor super humid tho I think this air mass ended up more humid than it looked from range.

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Euro ens/GEFS show a similar setup inside of 10 days to what we are going to see over the next 3-4 days. If anything, we are moving into a better pattern the second half of the month if you like shots of low humidity continental airmasses. Overall, it looks pretty pleasant for a while once we get past today. Not saying there won't be warm humid days in the mix but there will be relief at times.

typical El Nino summer conditions it would seem

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Main saving grace might be pattern remains pretty active so it's harder to get fully locked into anything. That said a main constant on ensembles is higher than normal heights around here which shpuld be warm in the means. Maybe not terrible nor super humid tho I think this air mass ended up more humid than it looked from range.

The risk of roasting will depend on whether we can get fronts to clear after any storm tracking through the sw ejects ne. Ensembles say they will but pretty far out to over think.

I agree about active. Things look to be on the move the next couple weeks. Storm track looks to stay west of us for the foreseeable future. We might get some decent boomers. Especially with a well timed fropa.

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You would think we popped triple digits multiple days with some of the talk around here. Aren't y'all used to low to mid 80s?

I meant more that it's pretty darn impressive so far. If the tables were turned and this was January and we were -8 and the ensembles continued a similar pattern into the future people would be pumped about all the cold wind we were getting. Sure, nothing extreme temp wise.. just a slow consistent "boil" for the last 10 or so. 

 

I'd take the under on the final May temp if for nothing else +8 is pretty ridiculous for a whole month. But I don't really see any signs of sustained cool weather down the road. If anything it seems June wants to 'torch' the whole country. Suppose Nino climo argues we'll break it at some point during JJA... tho we are already seeing how we can be warm with a continual Nino background state well underway. 

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I meant more that it's pretty darn impressive so far. If the tables were turned and this was January and we were -8 and the ensembles continued a similar pattern into the future people would be pumped about all the cold wind we were getting. Sure, nothing extreme temp wise.. just a slow consistent "boil" for the last 10 or so. 

 

I'd take the under on the final May temp if for nothing else +8 is pretty ridiculous for a whole month. But I don't really see any signs of sustained cool weather down the road. If anything it seems June wants to 'torch' the whole country. Suppose Nino climo argues we'll break it at some point during JJA... tho we are already seeing how we can be warm with a continual Nino background state well underway. 

When is your chase?   The warmth has been impressive;   I sort of like it but it means the spring fishing will end early.   The tomato, pepper and tomatillo plants love the heat.

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When is your chase?   The warmth has been impressive;   I sort of like it but it means the spring fishing will end early.   The tomato, pepper and tomatillo plants love the heat.

We leave next Friday.. back by June 7. Sorta wish we didn't shift a week later this year but things look relatively promising to start at least. Not sure the stream of storms is about to end anytime soon... might need a boat though if they don't start shifting north on their track east. ;)

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I meant more that it's pretty darn impressive so far. If the tables were turned and this was January and we were -8 and the ensembles continued a similar pattern into the future people would be pumped about all the cold wind we were getting. Sure, nothing extreme temp wise.. just a slow consistent "boil" for the last 10 or so. 

 

I'd take the under on the final May temp if for nothing else +8 is pretty ridiculous for a whole month. But I don't really see any signs of sustained cool weather down the road. If anything it seems June wants to 'torch' the whole country. Suppose Nino climo argues we'll break it at some point during JJA... tho we are already seeing how we can be warm with a continual Nino background state well underway. 

boiling in early May, even around here, ain't so bad

I would expect the NINO conditions to win out come late June-August as long as ENSO temps keep rising like they have been for the most part

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for

my hope remains high for a naso hot summer

plus, early heat in NINO summers are not unusual if memory serves (2002 being the first to come to mind), but maybe that was an anomaly, I haven't really looked

 

EDIT: funny that even normal summer temps here feel coolish, so I'd settle for that in a heartbeat too

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