yoda Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 78/69 at DCA at 11am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 are you just going on the soundings? the model QPF shows that the best chances would be early to mid-afternoon with some of the outer bands of Ana. The HRRR seems to show the same thing. It had been looking like it would stay southeast of DC, and I think that may still be the case, although the HRRR trends are to bring some showers into DC and the eastern burbs. one other possibility is tomorrow afternoon along the front. The NAM nest initiates storms east of DC, but if we can just slow down the front by a couple of hours, we'd have a chance for some isolated cells. 12z NAM likes some storms for tonight... even though shear sucks, decent sounding anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 are you just going on the soundings? the model QPF shows that the best chances would be early to mid-afternoon with some of the outer bands of Ana. The HRRR seems to show the same thing. It had been looking like it would stay southeast of DC, and I think that may still be the case, although the HRRR trends are to bring some showers into DC and the eastern burbs. one other possibility is tomorrow afternoon along the front. The NAM nest initiates storms east of DC, but if we can just slow down the front by a couple of hours, we'd have a chance for some isolated cells. I was more watching for tonight since the updated morning LWX AFD mentioned something about tonight, even though it will prob only affect the NW part of the LWX CWA: .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...WHILE ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING...WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE UPSTREAM AS THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS ORGANIZED STORMS COULD APPROACH THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING COINCIDENT WITH THIS ACTIVITY...SO SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG IF THIS SCENARIO HAPPENS. EXPECT A WEAKENING TREND TO ANY STORMS...BUT AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY ALLOW SOME SHOWERS TO CONTINUE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. MUGGY OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S. We shall see what happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 Nice day to be near the continental divide in CO This pic is an oasis in the midst of an absolute hellish desert furnace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 81/68 at noon for DCA... 84 was the ConvT on the 12z sounding this morning from LWX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 ok, yeah, very likely that a line will be affecting the areas well west of DC later today and into the evening, but (as you note, saying that the threat is well west and northwest of here) all guidance has it falling apart well before getting in close to the city. but some smaller but heavy showers now are developing in the local area, consistent with the hi-res guidance. I was more watching for tonight since the updated morning LWX AFD mentioned something about tonight, even though it will prob only affect the NW part of the LWX CWA: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 Just had a quick thundershower. Temp down to 75 from 82. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 Blue skies here. Humid, but not terrible with the breeze. The day is flying by.Just got into Annapolis and it's lightly raining here. Blue sky looking west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 Ana remnants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 89/70 .. Just a little bit summer-like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 May 1991 - It will be tough to get there without a big heat wave..still remarkable that we are only running 2 degrees behind the entire month through yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 May 1991 - It will be tough to get there without a big heat wave..still remarkable that we are only running 2 degrees behind the entire month through yesterday Looks pretty tame down the line. We'll tally a couple neg dep days in the next 5 days or so. Ens are hinting at another possible coolish spell inside of d10. Month is going to end up solid + either way but imo prob not in memorable fashion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 The cold air source region is just far enough west to allow for substantial moderation. The high sun angle will also ensure we never dip into negative territory for highs. This pattern of decaying cold followed by warm looks to continue untill the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 Meh MD just to our west -- http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0620.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 Looks like DCA is hitting 90 tomorrow, winds should be SW/W all day so a high amount of cloud cover will be needed to stop it. Could be 90's across the board, but IAD might have trouble hitting 90 due to proximity to front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 I don't see any signs indicative of a sustained cool down. The consistent feature on the GEFS, EPS, NAEFS, and GGEM ensembles is a low height regime over the SW under a GOA trough. That's almost always a warm pattern here during the warm season. Through hour 300+, it's pretty much set in stone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 Really sucks to have sustained warm / muggy pattern during the last window of opportunity for nice weather before summer sets in. Just terrible timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 Keep the warmth coming. At least till June 7 then it can snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 Really sucks to have sustained warm / muggy pattern during the last window of opportunity for nice weather before summer sets in. Just terrible timing. Euro ens/GEFS show a similar setup inside of 10 days to what we are going to see over the next 3-4 days. If anything, we are moving into a better pattern the second half of the month if you like shots of low humidity continental airmasses. Overall, it looks pretty pleasant for a while once we get past today. Not saying there won't be warm humid days in the mix but there will be relief at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 Really sucks to have sustained warm / muggy pattern during the last window of opportunity for nice weather before summer sets in. Just terrible timing. Have you looked at the forecast for the rest of the week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 Main saving grace might be pattern remains pretty active so it's harder to get fully locked into anything. That said a main constant on ensembles is higher than normal heights around here which shpuld be warm in the means. Maybe not terrible nor super humid tho I think this air mass ended up more humid than it looked from range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 Euro ens/GEFS show a similar setup inside of 10 days to what we are going to see over the next 3-4 days. If anything, we are moving into a better pattern the second half of the month if you like shots of low humidity continental airmasses. Overall, it looks pretty pleasant for a while once we get past today. Not saying there won't be warm humid days in the mix but there will be relief at times. typical El Nino summer conditions it would seem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 You can tell who the snow people are. +8.4 May at DCA with cooling back to near normal before it warms up again. Ain't nothin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 Main saving grace might be pattern remains pretty active so it's harder to get fully locked into anything. That said a main constant on ensembles is higher than normal heights around here which shpuld be warm in the means. Maybe not terrible nor super humid tho I think this air mass ended up more humid than it looked from range. The risk of roasting will depend on whether we can get fronts to clear after any storm tracking through the sw ejects ne. Ensembles say they will but pretty far out to over think. I agree about active. Things look to be on the move the next couple weeks. Storm track looks to stay west of us for the foreseeable future. We might get some decent boomers. Especially with a well timed fropa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 You would think we popped triple digits multiple days with some of the talk around here. Aren't y'all used to low to mid 80s? I meant more that it's pretty darn impressive so far. If the tables were turned and this was January and we were -8 and the ensembles continued a similar pattern into the future people would be pumped about all the cold wind we were getting. Sure, nothing extreme temp wise.. just a slow consistent "boil" for the last 10 or so. I'd take the under on the final May temp if for nothing else +8 is pretty ridiculous for a whole month. But I don't really see any signs of sustained cool weather down the road. If anything it seems June wants to 'torch' the whole country. Suppose Nino climo argues we'll break it at some point during JJA... tho we are already seeing how we can be warm with a continual Nino background state well underway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 I meant more that it's pretty darn impressive so far. If the tables were turned and this was January and we were -8 and the ensembles continued a similar pattern into the future people would be pumped about all the cold wind we were getting. Sure, nothing extreme temp wise.. just a slow consistent "boil" for the last 10 or so. I'd take the under on the final May temp if for nothing else +8 is pretty ridiculous for a whole month. But I don't really see any signs of sustained cool weather down the road. If anything it seems June wants to 'torch' the whole country. Suppose Nino climo argues we'll break it at some point during JJA... tho we are already seeing how we can be warm with a continual Nino background state well underway. When is your chase? The warmth has been impressive; I sort of like it but it means the spring fishing will end early. The tomato, pepper and tomatillo plants love the heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 When is your chase? The warmth has been impressive; I sort of like it but it means the spring fishing will end early. The tomato, pepper and tomatillo plants love the heat. We leave next Friday.. back by June 7. Sorta wish we didn't shift a week later this year but things look relatively promising to start at least. Not sure the stream of storms is about to end anytime soon... might need a boat though if they don't start shifting north on their track east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 Eh, don't know if actually will hit 90, it's slightly more cloudy than I thought it would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 the last few HRRR cycles break out a cell or two right around the District in the next 2 hours and intensify it over the east-southeastern suburbs. will be interesting to see if anything like this occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 I meant more that it's pretty darn impressive so far. If the tables were turned and this was January and we were -8 and the ensembles continued a similar pattern into the future people would be pumped about all the cold wind we were getting. Sure, nothing extreme temp wise.. just a slow consistent "boil" for the last 10 or so. I'd take the under on the final May temp if for nothing else +8 is pretty ridiculous for a whole month. But I don't really see any signs of sustained cool weather down the road. If anything it seems June wants to 'torch' the whole country. Suppose Nino climo argues we'll break it at some point during JJA... tho we are already seeing how we can be warm with a continual Nino background state well underway. boiling in early May, even around here, ain't so bad I would expect the NINO conditions to win out come late June-August as long as ENSO temps keep rising like they have been for the most part http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for my hope remains high for a naso hot summer plus, early heat in NINO summers are not unusual if memory serves (2002 being the first to come to mind), but maybe that was an anomaly, I haven't really looked EDIT: funny that even normal summer temps here feel coolish, so I'd settle for that in a heartbeat too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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