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May Obs And Daily Disco


wxdude64

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Both the NAM (parent and nest) and the HRRR have a pretty strong convective signal today on the west side of DC.    It's possible that areas on the northeast side of town including Baltimore get shut out - the fact that the wind at BWI has recently turned to northeast supports this idea.

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Both the NAM (parent and nest) and the HRRR have a pretty strong convective signal today on the west side of DC.    It's possible that areas on the northeast side of town including Baltimore get shut out - the fact that the wind at BWI has recently turned to northeast supports this idea.

 

I would be a bit more enthused for storms if the shear wasn't so weak

 

LWX basically calling for not much in their updated AFD:

 

12Z IAD SNDG SHOWS ANOTHER DAY W/ A LGT UPR LVL WIND FIELD. THIS

WL INHIBIT TSTM DVLPMNT. HRRR SHOWS A WEAK LN OF RW/TRW FORMING

ALONG THE BLU RDG ARND 20Z...THEN SLOWLY TRACKING SE.

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:lol:  SPC adds marginal SVR risk for our area in the 1630 OTLK...

 

 

 

..MID ATLANTIC  
 
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS  
AFTERNOON IN A RATHER SMALL AREA OF SOUTHERN PA INTO NORTHERN VA.   
THIS REGION IS ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER WESTERLIES...WITH  
AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG.  A FEW OF THE  
STRONGER CELLS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.
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     not saying there will be severe (despite the SPC 5%), but I think there will be a number of heavy storms on the west side of DC.  I don't really understand the LWX discussion.   They call the HRRR simulated storms "weak", but the forecasted reflectivities are reasonably healthy, and run after run has a nice QPF max.   The NAM, NAM nest, and ARW hi-res window all have the same thing.

 

 

I would be a bit more enthused for storms if the shear wasn't so weak

 

LWX basically calling for not much in their updated AFD:

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     not saying there will be severe (despite the SPC 5%), but I think there will be a number of heavy storms on the west side of DC.  I don't really understand the LWX discussion.   They call the HRRR simulated storms "weak", but the forecasted reflectivities are reasonably healthy, and run after run has a nice QPF max.   The NAM, NAM nest, and ARW hi-res window all have the same thing.

 

Radar looks nice west of I-95

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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
319 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  CENTRAL FAIRFAX COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...
  THE CITY OF FAIRFAX IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 400 PM EDT

* AT 318 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
  CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
  OVER CHANTILLY. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.


* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  FAIRFAX...VIENNA...RESTON...CENTREVILLE...MANTUA...I66 AND I495
  INTERCHANGE...ANNANDALE...OAKTON...MERRIFIELD...CHANTILLY...WOLF
  TRAP...BURKE...TYSONS CORNER...RAVENSWORTH...DUNN LORING...FAIRFAX
  STATION...CLIFTON...NORTH SPRINGFIELD AND WEST SPRINGFIELD.
 

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Been a lurker for a while on here but still have a lot to learn. What are the methods for detecting hail outside of ground observation? Is there a certain radar signature?

It's pretty easy. Look for 60+ dbz returns and there's usually (but not always) a good tower above it. I use COD's site quite a bit.

On the left side you can pull different products. Echo tops is near the bottom. The one out in WVA has pushed 46k'.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=LWX-N0Q-0-6

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It's pretty easy. Look for 60+ dbz returns and there's usually (but not always) a good tower above it. I use COD's site quite a bit.

On the left side you can pull different products. Echo tops is near the bottom. The one out in WVA has pushed 46k'.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=LWX-N0Q-0-6

Thanks Bob!  I see white (62-66k ft) where that cell is in western Fairfax.  Are the readings inaccurate being so close to the radar in Sterling there?

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It's pretty easy. Look for 60+ dbz returns and there's usually (but not always) a good tower above it. I use COD's site quite a bit.

On the left side you can pull different products. Echo tops is near the bottom. The one out in WVA has pushed 46k'.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=LWX-N0Q-0-6

 

VILs are also a good tell.  Especially closer to 70. 

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Thanks Bob! I see white (62-66k ft) where that cell is in western Fairfax. Are the readings inaccurate being so close to the radar in Sterling there?

That's some sort of clutter or something. Cloud tops that high in storms (especially around here) are very very rare. I'm not sure I've seen them. Ellinwood or Ian would know more.

MN, good point about VILs! I forgot COD had those plots.

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Interesting "movement" on those cells in Fairfax County.  They're kind of sitting there, kind of moving NNE, kind of morphing and pulsing.

 

Got a nice dousing yesterday, but wouldn't mind another today.

 

Yeah, you can't look at radar and be certain that you are going to get hit in 15 minutes.  You really want to be under it as it pops up.

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