MN Transplant Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 New 00z ECMWF doesn't even get us below average. Three days of near average temps before the warmth returns. Long range ensembles hinting at bigger heat developing to the south of us w/ a big ridge in the NE-PAC and IO subsidence. Classic precursor to a strong Bermuda high/zonal flow 2-3 weeks later. That, along w/ the forecast progression in the tropical forcing(s) favors some legit heat here in mid/late June. Haven't seen a signal like this since early June of 2012..and we know what happened 3 weeks later. A lot of easterly flow on the GFS and 12z Euro starting Tuesday. Should keep us from heat for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 Looks like it's raining on EastCoastNPZ's brown grass. I picked up .01". One set of storms went to my west, while the line east of I-81 blew up. Some outflow from those storms blew enough rain on me to wet the ground. Puts me at 1.04" for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 Looks like the hrrr wants to bring some stuff in overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 Final numbers for May @ OKV (based on Accuwx climate stats): Highs: +7.9F Lows: +5.8F Frankly, that's not as bad as I thought it be (or felt). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 A lot of easterly flow on the GFS and 12z Euro starting Tuesday. Should keep us from heat for a while. Yeah, I think we can manage a 7-10 day break in early June, but there's a strong retrogression signal in all the ensemble data after day 10, which is supported by progression of the tropical forcing(s). Note how the NAEFS, GEFS, and GGEM ensembles retrograde the western ridge into the GOA during week2. That's a classic MJO/CCKW phase 1-3 response, and puts us back in the heat ridge come June 15-20, maybe sooner? GEFS Day 10 / Day 16 GEMS Day 10 / Day 16 NAEFS Day 10 / Day16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 Quite a lightning show just off to my west. Close enough to hear some thunder. Radar says it's staying west though....again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 It's a showdown: Bob Chill vs. SOC. Who'll be right? Rooting for Bob, but betting on the heat. Always bet on heat here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 yes, but the trends keep moving it north. latest HRRR has all of the storms staying northwest of the 95 corridor in MD. Radar trends seem to support the general idea. Looks like the hrrr wants to bring some stuff in overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 yes, but the trends keep moving it north. latest HRRR has all of the storms staying northwest of the 95 corridor in MD. Radar trends seem to support the general idea.It definitely looks that way. I'm hugging that stuff way off to our SW. It kinda looks like it's getting a little more organized. I'm probably wishful thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 It's important to note that the southern plains area has been way too wet the past2 months to be a good source region for incredibly hot air masses. Should allow for 7-10 days of troughing here with the heat ridge building in the SW before the tropical forcing progresses (WPAC convergence) which will put low heights in the SW and push that heat NE into the Central/Eastern part of the US in mid or late June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 It's a showdown: Bob Chill vs. SOC. Who'll be right? Rooting for Bob, but betting on the heat. Always bet on heat here. Nah, I'm not looking 2-3 weeks down the line. Just looking forward to the potential for a nice stretch of low dew June weather coming up after next weekend. Still way out in time but there's been hints lately and now some consensus. This week looks realy tame with the temps as well but on the wet/cloudy side. Doesn't look like the first 2 weeks of the month are going to put up big + departures like May did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 had about .5" earlier and now another storm is blowing up just overhead big time. just torrential rain. It's been a non-stop light show to my north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 Wow this line coming through means business. Insane amount of lightning and torrential downpour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 Watching that cluster down by CHO... should be in/near DC area a lil after midnight IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 It's important to note that the southern plains area has been way too wet the past2 months to be a good source region for incredibly hot air masses. Well yeah I'm not thinking we see a 2012 repeat or anything like that..a lot of the insolation over the Southern Plains will be used in the evaporative process rather than heating. Still wouldn't rule out +10 departures during 2nd half of June though. That said, the models have failed at predicting tropical forcing progression in the past, so it may happen again? Who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 Hmmm... 00z NAM has decent SRH on its soundings (11pm and 2am)... i am guessing lack of shear will offset that and not allow for any rotation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 Is their any Heat Lightning? I'm seeing many flashes here in Eastern Baltimore County, no thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 Is their any Heat Lightning? I'm seeing many flashes here in Eastern Baltimore County, no thunder. "Heat lightning" is just lightning from a storm so far away, u can't hear the Thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 Watching that cluster down by CHO... should be in/near DC area a lil after midnight IMOYeah, I've been watching that stuff for a while. It seems to be getting juicier. I wouldn't mine a late night lightning show.Fresh untouched humid air with a temp of 74. Hopefully no stupid outflow from those storms up north gets into the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 0.03" last night. Biggest event in over a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 I got a rock... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 Complete whiff with the storms last night. May total = 1.04" imby. Watching the radar the last two days was just tragic comedy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 0.03" last night. Biggest event in over a week. I had to go to Hilton Head to see rain. Been here for over a week and finally saw my first rainfall in a few weeks yesterday morning - fantastic tropical downpour. I hope the neighborhood kid followed through and watered our pots and garden while we've been gone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.