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May Obs And Daily Disco


wxdude64

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New 00z ECMWF doesn't even get us below average. Three days of near average temps before the warmth returns.

Long range ensembles hinting at bigger heat developing to the south of us w/ a big ridge in the NE-PAC and IO subsidence. Classic precursor to a strong Bermuda high/zonal flow 2-3 weeks later.

That, along w/ the forecast progression in the tropical forcing(s) favors some legit heat here in mid/late June. Haven't seen a signal like this since early June of 2012..and we know what happened 3 weeks later. ;)

 

A lot of easterly flow on the GFS and 12z Euro starting Tuesday.  Should keep us from heat for a while.

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A lot of easterly flow on the GFS and 12z Euro starting Tuesday. Should keep us from heat for a while.

Yeah, I think we can manage a 7-10 day break in early June, but there's a strong retrogression signal in all the ensemble data after day 10, which is supported by progression of the tropical forcing(s).

Note how the NAEFS, GEFS, and GGEM ensembles retrograde the western ridge into the GOA during week2. That's a classic MJO/CCKW phase 1-3 response, and puts us back in the heat ridge come June 15-20, maybe sooner?

GEFS Day 10 / Day 16

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GEMS Day 10 / Day 16

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NAEFS Day 10 / Day16

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yes, but the trends keep moving it north. latest HRRR has all of the storms staying northwest of the 95 corridor in MD. Radar trends seem to support the general idea.

It definitely looks that way. I'm hugging that stuff way off to our SW. It kinda looks like it's getting a little more organized. I'm probably wishful thinking.
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      It's important to note that the southern plains area has been way too wet the past2 months to be a good source region for incredibly hot air masses.    

 

 

Should allow for 7-10 days of troughing here with the heat ridge building in the SW before the tropical forcing progresses (WPAC convergence) which will put low heights in the SW and push that heat NE into the Central/Eastern part of the US in mid or late June.

 

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It's a showdown: Bob Chill vs. SOC.

Who'll be right?

Rooting for Bob, but betting on the heat. Always bet on heat here.

Nah, I'm not looking 2-3 weeks down the line. Just looking forward to the potential for a nice stretch of low dew June weather coming up after next weekend. Still way out in time but there's been hints lately and now some consensus.

This week looks realy tame with the temps as well but on the wet/cloudy side. Doesn't look like the first 2 weeks of the month are going to put up big + departures like May did.

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It's important to note that the southern plains area has been way too wet the past2 months to be a good source region for incredibly hot air masses.

Well yeah I'm not thinking we see a 2012 repeat or anything like that..a lot of the insolation over the Southern Plains will be used in the evaporative process rather than heating. Still wouldn't rule out +10 departures during 2nd half of June though.

That said, the models have failed at predicting tropical forcing progression in the past, so it may happen again? Who knows.

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Watching that cluster down by CHO... should be in/near DC area a lil after midnight IMO

Yeah, I've been watching that stuff for a while. It seems to be getting juicier. I wouldn't mine a late night lightning show.

Fresh untouched humid air with a temp of 74. Hopefully no stupid outflow from those storms up north gets into the area.

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0.03" last night. Biggest event in over a week.

I had to go to Hilton Head to see rain. Been here for over a week and finally saw my first rainfall in a few weeks yesterday morning - fantastic tropical downpour.

I hope the neighborhood kid followed through and watered our pots and garden while we've been gone...

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