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May Obs And Daily Disco


wxdude64

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Today is the 17th day this month with a +10F or higher departure @ KOKV and tomorrow will likely be another.

There have been 15 days +12F or higher and 7 days +15F.

Been a sucky May. Hot and HUMID with not a lot of rain. I hope we can manage some sort of interesting weather this summer besides torches (which don't interest me).

74 and muggy

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I'm hoping for a little tropical. Maybe some homebrew or remnants taking the right track to make things interesting around here.

I'm not making any friends openly rooting for heat :P

I love me some tropical activity. I've been watching the tropics since I was very young. I remember watching the tropical storm update (50 past the hour) on TWC. John Hope was the man back then.
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   The good news now is that, while the trend in the models towards a dry Sunday looks fairly locked in, the system has slowed down even more such that a lot of the area could see a significant soaking Monday afternoon/evening and maybe Tuesday too. (And northern MD could still have a shot Sunday night).    This is consistent with the recent posts about high temperature forecasts for Monday needing to be adjusted upwards - the push of the front well to our south that was modeled a couple of days ago is not going to happen.

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New 00z ECMWF doesn't even get us below average. Three days of near average temps before the warmth returns.

Long range ensembles hinting at bigger heat developing to the south of us w/ a big ridge in the NE-PAC and IO subsidence. Classic precursor to a strong Bermuda high/zonal flow 2-3 weeks later.

That, along w/ the forecast progression in the tropical forcing(s) favors some legit heat here in mid/late June. Haven't seen a signal like this since early June of 2012..and we know what happened 3 weeks later. ;)

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I'm really liking ens trends down the line (june 9th+). Height patterns reversing from the May persistence. Ridge west/trough east may be on tap. I wouldn't call it cool or anything but definitely low dew kind of stuff if it verifies. Hopefully it holds.

Overall the first half of June looks pretty tame. Doubt we'll see the type of departures we saw in May. Climo is getting warmer so it may not feel terribly different but the May pattern is looking to break down.

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Looks more like a retrogression than a breakdown to me as IO subsidence takes a break with convergence centered over Africa/WATL, putting the 500mb ridge in the GOA.

Should allow for 7-10 days of troughing here with the heat ridge building in the SW before the tropical forcing progresses (WPAC convergence) which will put low heights in the SW and push that heat NE into the Central/Eastern part of the US in mid or late June.

This of course assuming the models' tropical forcing projections are accurate. May looked coolish w/ NW flow for a bit early on, but the transition in the IO/WPAC went much quicker than expected and we ridged out. So that may very well happen again as there's plenty of warm SSTs in the IO.

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I'm really liking ens trends down the line (june 9th+). Height patterns reversing from the May persistence. Ridge west/trough east may be on tap. I wouldn't call it cool or anything but definitely low dew kind of stuff if it verifies. Hopefully it holds.

Overall the first half of June looks pretty tame. Doubt we'll see the type of departures we saw in May. Climo is getting warmer so it may not feel terribly different but the May pattern is looking to break down.

Mid-upper 80s in June is just fine if the dews are low.  It's these upper 60s-low 70s dews that need to GTFO.  

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Mid-upper 80s in June is just fine if the dews are low. It's these upper 60s-low 70s dews that need to GTFO.

It's a nice look. GEFS/EPS agree on the ridge axis out west centered over the great basin. Perfect placement for a dry air from Canada to push in from the lakes region. The first week of the month looks tame as well.

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