dailylurker Posted May 31, 2015 Share Posted May 31, 2015 Today is the 17th day this month with a +10F or higher departure @ KOKV and tomorrow will likely be another. There have been 15 days +12F or higher and 7 days +15F. Been a sucky May. Hot and HUMID with not a lot of rain. I hope we can manage some sort of interesting weather this summer besides torches (which don't interest me). 74 and muggy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
motsco Posted May 31, 2015 Share Posted May 31, 2015 87.2 high IMBY today. beautiful evening 76.4 light breezes. its been great outside. havnt hit 90 yet and the snowbirds are crying . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted May 31, 2015 Share Posted May 31, 2015 I'm hoping for a little tropical. Maybe some homebrew or remnants taking the right track to make things interesting around here. I'm not making any friends openly rooting for heat I love me some tropical activity. I've been watching the tropics since I was very young. I remember watching the tropical storm update (50 past the hour) on TWC. John Hope was the man back then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted May 31, 2015 Share Posted May 31, 2015 The good news now is that, while the trend in the models towards a dry Sunday looks fairly locked in, the system has slowed down even more such that a lot of the area could see a significant soaking Monday afternoon/evening and maybe Tuesday too. (And northern MD could still have a shot Sunday night). This is consistent with the recent posts about high temperature forecasts for Monday needing to be adjusted upwards - the push of the front well to our south that was modeled a couple of days ago is not going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted May 31, 2015 Share Posted May 31, 2015 New 00z ECMWF doesn't even get us below average. Three days of near average temps before the warmth returns. Long range ensembles hinting at bigger heat developing to the south of us w/ a big ridge in the NE-PAC and IO subsidence. Classic precursor to a strong Bermuda high/zonal flow 2-3 weeks later. That, along w/ the forecast progression in the tropical forcing(s) favors some legit heat here in mid/late June. Haven't seen a signal like this since early June of 2012..and we know what happened 3 weeks later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted May 31, 2015 Author Share Posted May 31, 2015 Least I fell to 58 overnight.......I'll never make another obs thread if this is what happens. I knew the long term signals at start of month were warm, but this is ridiculous. EDIT: Sitting at 1.98 of rain for month, not only hot, but dry too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 31, 2015 Share Posted May 31, 2015 It's so dry, you guys. I don't know how we'll make it through summer at this rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted May 31, 2015 Share Posted May 31, 2015 Hot out there this morning. Tried to get some stuff done in the garden before the daily torch got going. Looks like some storms are already starting to pop over eastern WV. Something to watch today I guess. 85 and nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted May 31, 2015 Share Posted May 31, 2015 87F with a 68F dew at 11am. Barf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted May 31, 2015 Share Posted May 31, 2015 It's so dry, you guys. I don't know how we'll make it through summer at this rate. 20150526_drought.png Yards in my neighborhood would disagree. I've got 1.03" for May. I'd call that pretty dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted May 31, 2015 Share Posted May 31, 2015 82F at 11 AM, and there is not a cloud in the sky. Another temp bust on tap. This is the summer of the torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted May 31, 2015 Share Posted May 31, 2015 I'm really liking ens trends down the line (june 9th+). Height patterns reversing from the May persistence. Ridge west/trough east may be on tap. I wouldn't call it cool or anything but definitely low dew kind of stuff if it verifies. Hopefully it holds. Overall the first half of June looks pretty tame. Doubt we'll see the type of departures we saw in May. Climo is getting warmer so it may not feel terribly different but the May pattern is looking to break down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted May 31, 2015 Share Posted May 31, 2015 Looks more like a retrogression than a breakdown to me as IO subsidence takes a break with convergence centered over Africa/WATL, putting the 500mb ridge in the GOA. Should allow for 7-10 days of troughing here with the heat ridge building in the SW before the tropical forcing progresses (WPAC convergence) which will put low heights in the SW and push that heat NE into the Central/Eastern part of the US in mid or late June. This of course assuming the models' tropical forcing projections are accurate. May looked coolish w/ NW flow for a bit early on, but the transition in the IO/WPAC went much quicker than expected and we ridged out. So that may very well happen again as there's plenty of warm SSTs in the IO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 31, 2015 Share Posted May 31, 2015 Yards in my neighborhood would disagree. I've got 1.03" for May. I'd call that pretty dry. Sorry, I thought this was the California subforum. I'll pray for your brown patches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted May 31, 2015 Share Posted May 31, 2015 Rack up another 90F and another +12F day for KOKV. Some storms forming and paralleling I-81 both east and west. So far, I'm right in the middle, but at least have some clouds. Sitting at 86F imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted May 31, 2015 Share Posted May 31, 2015 Sorry, I thought this was the California subforum. I'll pray for your brown patches. lol. please do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted May 31, 2015 Share Posted May 31, 2015 Yeah it's really not that bad out. Always funny watching the icep*ssies squirm and cry, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted May 31, 2015 Share Posted May 31, 2015 Well we all have weather conditions that make us miserable. I'm hoping I can see at least one storm today. I think today is a western special. Not much kinematic forcing in the immediate DC area..maybe outflow from the stuff out west will provide the trigger? I'm looking forward to tomorrow, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted May 31, 2015 Share Posted May 31, 2015 Looks like it's raining on EastCoastNPZ's brown grass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted May 31, 2015 Share Posted May 31, 2015 Sorry, I thought this was the California subforum. I'll pray for your brown patches. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted May 31, 2015 Share Posted May 31, 2015 I'm really liking ens trends down the line (june 9th+). Height patterns reversing from the May persistence. Ridge west/trough east may be on tap. I wouldn't call it cool or anything but definitely low dew kind of stuff if it verifies. Hopefully it holds. Overall the first half of June looks pretty tame. Doubt we'll see the type of departures we saw in May. Climo is getting warmer so it may not feel terribly different but the May pattern is looking to break down. Mid-upper 80s in June is just fine if the dews are low. It's these upper 60s-low 70s dews that need to GTFO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted May 31, 2015 Share Posted May 31, 2015 They blew the whistle over at the pool after hearing thunder. Glad I drove over today as we normally walk. Got home no more than 5 min ago and it is pouring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted May 31, 2015 Share Posted May 31, 2015 Looks like much of MD, VA, DE should see 1-3 inches of rain over the next 2 days or so. Much needed in most areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted May 31, 2015 Share Posted May 31, 2015 Radar doesn't show anything nearby, but it looks downright evil to my southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted May 31, 2015 Share Posted May 31, 2015 Warmest day of the year so far here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted May 31, 2015 Share Posted May 31, 2015 Radar doesn't show anything nearby, but it looks downright evil to my southwest.I was just thinking the same thing. Looks like a big storm to my west. Nothing on radar tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 31, 2015 Share Posted May 31, 2015 88 for the high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted May 31, 2015 Share Posted May 31, 2015 thunder here in southern Howard County from the small cell over Montgomery County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted May 31, 2015 Share Posted May 31, 2015 Mid-upper 80s in June is just fine if the dews are low. It's these upper 60s-low 70s dews that need to GTFO. It's a nice look. GEFS/EPS agree on the ridge axis out west centered over the great basin. Perfect placement for a dry air from Canada to push in from the lakes region. The first week of the month looks tame as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted May 31, 2015 Share Posted May 31, 2015 thunder here in southern Howard County from the small cell over Montgomery County Torrential rain and a little thunder/lightening here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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