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May Observation Thread

Solak

By Solak,
in Southeastern States

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isohume

isohume

Posted
Posted

It was in the AFD on wed or thurs , that there would be widespread showers/precip , with low QPF over the weekend! I guess 0 QPF , is low!

 

Which one says "widespread precip"? 

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 300 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...ON SATURDAY MORNING AN UPPER RIDGE WILL 
EXTEND FROM FL TO THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE 
OVER THE ROCKIES. BY SUNDAY THE RIDGE AXIS PROGRESSES TO THE 
APPALACHIANS...AND THE TROUGH WEAKENS OVER THE PLAINS. ON MONDAY THE 
RIDGE BECOMES POSITIVELY TILTED ALONG THE EAST COAST...WHILE A 
STRONG CLOSED LOW REACHES THE CA COAST...RESULTING IN RIDGING 
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE PLAINS. ON TUESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OFF THE 
EAST COAST...AND NEARLY ZONAL FLOW SETS UP BETWEEN THE PLAINS RIDGE 
AND THE EAST COAST.

AT THE SURFACE...ON SATURDAY RETURN FLOW MOISTURE FORM THE GULF AND 
ATLANTIC WILL IMPINGE ON OUR AREA...WITH UPSLOPE FLOW ENHANCING LIFT 
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS PATTERN PERSIST INTO SUNDAY AND 
MONDAY...WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MS RIVER 
VALLEY. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MAY 
MOVES SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE PLAINS COLD FRONT REACHES 
THE APPALACHIANS EARLY TUESDAY...CROSSING OUR AREA DURING THE DAY. 
TEMPERATURES WILL EXHIBIT A REDUCED DIURNAL RANGE DUE TO CLOUDS AND 
MOISTURE...BUT WILL ALSO WARM ABOVE NORMAL AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVER 
THE AREA.

                

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FCST 
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WHICH INITIALIZES THURSDAY EVENING AMIDST 
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.  LIKEWISE...A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE 
SLIDING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN AS IT 
APPROACHES...AND SLIDES THROUGH THE THE SOUTHERN APPS THURSDAY 
NIGHT.  MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE 
MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SLIDE SOUTH THEREBY BANKING COOL/DRY AIR 
ALONG THE EASTERN REGIONS OF THE ESCARPMENT.  BACKED SURFACE FLOW 
AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF SAID SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR 
WEAK UPGLIDE REGIME TO COMMENCE OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST 
MOUNTAINS THROUGH DAYBREAK FRIDAY.  THE PATTERN WILL MODIFY DURING 
THE DAY AS THE CENTER OF THE PARENT SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER OUT 
TO SEA...AND WARM ADVECTION PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE.  MODELS 
DISAGREE SOMEWHAT WITH REGARDS TO MAGNITUDE OF DESTABILIZATION THAT 
DOES OCCUR ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON ON THE EDGE OF THE SURFACE 
RIDGE...WITH THE NAM BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE.  THUS FOR THE FCST 
ON FRIDAY...POPS INCREASE TO CHANCE LEVELS THROUGH EARLY MORNING 
OVER THE SOUTHWEST MTNS AS NARROW UPGLIDE PRECIP REGIME PREVAILS 
AHEAD OF A MORE CONVECTIVE PRECIP MODE FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH 
SUSTAINED WAA/HEATING.  POPS SPREAD OUT A BIT FURTHER OVER THE MTNS 
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS MENTIONED FURTHER 
EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL DIURNAL HEATING INDUCED TSRA.  

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE MUCH THE SAME WITH THE COASTAL HIGH REMAINING 
ANCHORED WITH SSE GULF/ATLANTIC MOISTURE FETCH PREVAILING OVER 
NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.  THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL 
SHIFT OVERHEAD EARLY ON SATURDAY...EVENTUALLY SLIDING JUST EAST BY 
THE AFTERNOON.  MEANWHILE ANOTHER WEAK H5 IMPULSE WILL RIDE ALONG 
THE RIDGE EFFECTIVELY PUSHING THROUGH THE TN VALLEY BY LATE DAY.  
DIURNAL HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR STEEPENED LLV LAPSE RATES ONCE AGAIN 
YIELDING CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS WITH CHANCES DECREASING FURTHER 
EAST WHERE THE AIRMASS WILL BE LESS UNSTABLE.  THUS THE FCST 
FEATURES DIURNAL POPS ON SATURDAY WITH LIKELY LEVELS FAVORED OVER 
MUCH OF THE HIGH TERRAIN...WITH SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS FURTHER EAST INTO 
THE I77/I85 CORRIDORS.  PROFILES BOTH ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY 
INDICATE RATHER MOIST MID LEVELS THEREFORE KEEPING MID LEVEL LAPSE 
RATES AT BAY...THUS DEEP ROBUST CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS 
TIME.  TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL GRADUALLY RECOVER TO AT OR NEAR 
NORMAL DESPITE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH FURTHER WARMING TO ABOVE 
NORMAL FCST ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 300 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...ON SUNDAY MORNING A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL 
EXTEND FROM FL TO HUDSON BAY...WHILE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE 
OVER THE WEST AND CENTER OF THE NATION. BY MONDAY THE RIDGE BECOMES 
POSITIVELY TILTED ALONG THE EAST COAST...WHILE THE WESTERN TROUGH 
AXIS RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY OFF THE CA COAST AS UPPER LOWS MOVE INTO 
ITS BASE. ON TUESDAY THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM GO OUT OF 
PHASE...AS A TROUGH PROGRESSES ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...AND ANOTHER 
MOVES ASHORE OVER THE WESTERN USA. THE RESULT FOR THE CENTRAL AND 
EASTERN USA IS ZONAL UPPER FLOW...AS ONLY WEAK RIDGES ARE LEFT OVER 
THE EAST COAST AND THE ROCKIES. FURTHER DEAMPLIFICATION OCCURS BY 
WEDNESDAY...WITH ZONAL FLOW EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF 
STATES.

AT THE SURFACE...ON SUNDAY ATLANTIC RIDGING MAINTAINS A FOOTHOLD 
OVER THE CAROLINAS AND GA...WHILE GULF INFLOW EXISTS TO THE WEST. 
ONLY WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE PRESENT OVER 
OUR AREA. THE SURFACE RIDGE PERSISTS OVER OUR AREA ON MONDAY...WHILE 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE WEST RELAXES...LESSENING GULF INFLOW. 
MOISTURE PERSISTS OVER THE AREA HOWEVER...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW 
INSTABILITY INCREASING ON MONDAY...WITH SOME WEAK SHEAR PRESENT. A 
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY NIGHT...REACHING OUR 
AREA EARLY TUESDAY...AND SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND 
INTO THE EVENING. INSTABILITY APPEARS A BIT MORE LIMITED ON TUESDAY 
THAN MONDAY...BUT SHEAR APPEARS TO BE GREATER. THE FRONT FINALLY 
MOVES SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY...WHEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED 
OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILD SOUTH OVER THE REGION.

WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE CONSIDERED...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF 
PRECIPITATION IS SUPPORTED...BUT UNLESS CONVECTION CAN PLAY A 
SIGNIFICANT ROLE...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE SPECTACULAR. 
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AT 300 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...ON FRIDAY MORNING AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE 
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION...WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY 
TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES....AND A TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE WEST. 
THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...PROGRESSING TOWARD THE 
EAST COAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT....WHILE A WESTERN TROUGH RECONFIGURES 
ITSELF...AS ONE LOW EXITS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER REACHES 
THE CA COAST.

AT THE SURFACE...FRIDAY MORNING WILL FEATURE A RIDGE OF HIGH 
PRESSURE BANKED UP AGAINST THE EAST SLOPED OF THE APPALACHIANS... 
WITH MODEST...MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER NE GA AND THE WESTERN 
CAROLINAS. THE NAM IS MORE UNSTABLE THAN THE GFS AT THIS TIME...BUT 
NAM CAPE IS STILL QUITE LIMITED. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH 
MOVES OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY...BUT THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE 
REMAINS OVER THE CAROLINAS AND GA. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WEAKENS...BUT 
MOISTURE REMAINS OVER OUR AREA...WITH A LIGHT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY 
UPSLOPE FLOW PRESENT. INSTABILITY IMPROVES SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY... 
EVEN IN THE GFS...BUT A WEAK WARM NOSE AT 550 MB IS PRESENT. BY 
SUNDAY NIGHT EVEN THE UPSLOPE FLOW DETERIORATES...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS 
VEER SSW AND WEAKEN. THE UPSHOT OF ALL THIS IS THAT ABUNDANT 
MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT PROLONGED PRECIPITATION...BUT THE INGREDIENTS 
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL APPEAR TO BE LACKING AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURE 
ILL WARM FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL AS HEIGHTS RISE 
ALOFT.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM THURSDAY...IT APPEARS THAT THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND 
NORTHEAST GEORGIA WILL BE STUCK IN A MOISTURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 
DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH THAT TAKES UP RESIDENCE 
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...AND THE RETURN FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE WELL 
OUT AHEAD OF THE STRONG FRONT OVER THE PLAINS. IN GENERAL...THAT 
WILL FAVOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF DEEPER CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER 
TERRAIN EACH DAY...MODULATED BY THE DIURNAL CYCLE. AFTER THE SHOWERS 
SLOWLY DISSIPATE FRIDAY EVENING...THINK THE BETTER PART OF THE NIGHT 
WILL BE QUIET...AND SO PRECIP CHANCES WERE CUT FOR EARLY SATURDAY 
MORNING. WITH HEATING...SOME REDEVELOPMENT SHOULD TAKE PLACE BY 
MIDDAY OVER THE MTNS...BUT FOR NOW...THE WRN PIEDMONT OF NC SHOULD 
SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST. PRECIP PROBABILITY WAS LIMITED TO THE 
CHC RANGE IN SPITE OF THE MOSGUIDE CREEPING INTO THE LIKELY RANGE ON 
THE TN BORDER...AS THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENUF ORGANIZATION TO 
DRIVE ANY LINES OF STORMS IN FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH 
TEMPS WERE NUDGED TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE BLEND. STILL THINK WE 
WILL SEE DIURNAL WEAKENING/DISSIPATION SATURDAY NIGHT...SO PRECIP 
CHANCES WERE ONCE AGAIN CURTAILED. CHANCES THEN RAMP BACK UP 
SUNDAY...WITH PERHAPS A BIT FARTHER EASTWARD INTRUSION INTO THE 
PIEDMONT...AIDED BY TEMPS ABOUT A CATEGORY WARMER...WHICH RESULTS IN 
MORE INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON TO FUEL THE INCREASE IN COVERAGE.
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jshetley

jshetley

Posted
Posted

AT THE SURFACE...FRIDAY MORNING WILL FEATURE A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BANKED UP AGAINST THE EAST SLOPED OF THE APPALACHIANS...
WITH MODEST...MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER NE GA AND THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS. THE NAM IS MORE UNSTABLE THAN THE GFS AT THIS TIME...BUT
NAM CAPE IS STILL QUITE LIMITED. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH
MOVES OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY...BUT THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE CAROLINAS AND GA. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WEAKENS...BUT
MOISTURE REMAINS OVER OUR AREA...WITH A LIGHT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW PRESENT. INSTABILITY IMPROVES SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY...
EVEN IN THE GFS...BUT A WEAK WARM NOSE AT 550 MB IS PRESENT. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT EVEN THE UPSLOPE FLOW DETERIORATES...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
VEER SSW AND WEAKEN. THE UPSHOT OF ALL THIS IS THAT ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT PROLONGED PRECIPITATION...BUT THE INGREDIENTS
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL APPEAR TO BE LACKING AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURE
ILL WARM FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL AS HEIGHTS RISE
ALOFT.

 

I'm willing to bet this is what he is referring to. But the zone forecast never has had the GSP metro over a 50% chance and that isn't widespread coverage. And my area of Union county hasn't had over a 30-40% chance for the last couple of weeks.

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isohume

isohume

Posted
Posted

I'm willing to bet this is what he is referring to. But the zone forecast never has had the GSP metro over a 50% chance and that isn't widespread coverage. And my area of Union county hasn't had over a 30-40% chance for the last couple of weeks.

 

Prolonged != Widespread. The AFD was referring to any showers that develop in the upslope regime would likely be prolonged in the moist environment. It says nothing about PoPs.

 

The actual PoPs for Fri/Sat were low end chance, 30%. 

$$
SCZ006-142100-
GREATER GREENVILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GREENVILLE...TAYLORS...GREER...
MAULDIN...SIMPSONVILLE...BEREA
815 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2015

DATE             THU 05/14/15            FRI 05/15/15            SAT 05/16/15
EDT 3HRLY     05 08 11 14 17 20 23 02 05 08 11 14 17 20 23 02 05 08 11 14 17 20
UTC 3HRLY     09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00

MAX/MIN                73 77 79    59 61 63    75 78 79    59 61 63    78 82 83
TEMP                70 75 76 71 66 63 61 64 72 77 77 72 67 63 62 65 75 80 81 76
DEWPT               52 54 54 56 57 58 57 59 60 62 61 60 60 59 60 60 62 64 63 62
RH                  53 48 46 59 73 84 87 84 66 60 58 66 78 87 93 84 64 58 54 62
WIND DIR            NE  E  E  E  E  E NE  E SE  S  S  S  S  S SW SW SW  S  S SE
WIND SPD            11  8  6  5  3  2  2  3  4  5  5  4  3  4  3  3  4  5  5  4
WIND GUST           23                                                         
CLOUDS              SC SC SC SC B1 B2 B2 B2 B2 B2 B2 B2 B2 B2 OV OV OV B2 B2 B2
POP 12HR                     10          20          30          30          30
QPF 12HR                      0           0        0.02           0           0
SNOW 12HR                 00-00       00-00       00-00                        
RAIN SHWRS                          S  S  S  S  C  C  S  S  S  S  C  C  C  C  C


DATE          SUN 05/17/15  MON 05/18/15  TUE 05/19/15  WED 05/20/15
EDT 6HRLY     02 08 14 20   02 08 14 20   02 08 14 20   02 08 14 20
UTC 6HRLY     06 12 18 00   06 12 18 00   06 12 18 00   06 12 18 00

MIN/MAX          65    85      66    88      68    84      63    83
TEMP          68 69 83 79   69 70 86 81   71 71 83 77   66 67 82 75
DEWPT         62 63 66 65   65 65 67 67   66 65 66 65   61 59 59 57
PWIND DIR         S    SW      SW    SW      NW    NW       N     E
WIND CHAR        LT    LT      LT    LT      LT    LT      LT    LT
AVG CLOUDS    B2 B2 B2 B2   B2 B1 B1 B2   B2 B1 B2 B2   B1 SC SC SC
POP 12HR         40    40      40    40      50    50      10    10
RAIN SHWRS     C  C  C  C    C  C  C  C    C  C  C  C              
TSTMS                   S    S     C  C    C     C  C
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isohume

isohume

Posted
Posted

Well, prolonged zero precipitation = zero! I took the highlighted statement above to mean a prolonged precip event with light totals, that's how I read it. Either way it's dry, and hasn't rained here in 6 days and I'm sure the Monday /Tuesday chances are 30% too! This strengthening El Niño , is Rockin'

 

The higher elevations are seeing prolonged -shra this afterrnoon. Just because there is a low-end chance PoP two days out doesn't mean widespread precip affecting your backyard. It also doesn't mean chances may not be lowered to slight in subsequent fcsts, which is what happened with the next fcst package.    

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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
Posted

Missed the temps by a little bit. 93.4 with dp of 70 but highs were suppose to top out around 84. Summer is here and it is hot and dry. 

 

Might wanna check that setup your 4-5 degrees warmer than anywhere else around you.....I cant find anyone over 90 anywhere in the Carolinas.....

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sparklecity

sparklecity

Posted
Posted

Well, it rained moderately.  I was a couple miles from prob picking up .5-1" of rain.  Still more out to our west if it holds together and doesn't change trajectory.  Nearest weather station says I picked up 0.06" yay.  I guess thats enough to wash all the pollen and dust away.  Doesn't really help the brown grass that much though.

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Solak

Solak

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Looks like whatever action is left is going to pass just to the South of here. We had a little thunder from the downtown baby Clayton storm, but that was it.

 

Edited: We had our first official 90° day at KJNX today.

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