powderfreak Posted May 20, 2015 Share Posted May 20, 2015 I’ve got a spreadsheet of the Mt. Mansfield snowpack data from SkiVT-L, so I used it to create a table that could be helpful to the conversation: Thanks Jay. That clears it up. So the median 0" date is May 24th, which is about what I had in mind. But I'm wrong about the average...it really does linger for a long time. Highly skewed by a few late springs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted May 20, 2015 Share Posted May 20, 2015 The summit is wind-swept rock. You'd never be able to get a decent uniform depth. It'd be 20 feet deep behind a rock outcropping, and 0 inches on top of that rock outcropping. Its like serious drifting...from no snow to tens of feet of snow in the gullies. Even being down in the Spruce zone isn't completely ideal. Also the rocky summit ridge melts out fast due to the sun on the rocks. Those rocks warm up and the snow on the rocks can melt in March with a bunch of sunny mild days. Its like trying to get snow to stay on your driveway in full sun (there's no shade up there) after March 15th. If you hiked the mountain in the last month, you'd notice the snowpack would peak in the 500ft zone from like 3,400-3,900ft. Spruce forests are very effective at holding snow. As far as the resort going to the summit...if you are familiar with the terrain, it just wouldn't be feasible as there are some substantial cliffy areas and its just really too steep for the average skier. Even the Gondola as it is now can be a little steep off the top for your standard intermediate that's used to blue squares at say Stratton. This is also completely ignoring the environmental concerns on the ridgeline, and the fact that the lifts would never run due to wind hold. The prevailing westerly winds would just crush any chairlift trying to crest the ridge from the east. It would have to be a surface lift if it went up there. The set-up is fun for locals and tourists because it gives Mansfield the best and most accessible backcountry and sidecountry skiing in the East. The amount of terrain you can get to off the Quad and Gondola is amazing, especially with a 15-20 minute hike. Thanks for the detailed response. Makes total sense. You would think on the east coast however you would want ever ich of elevation possible. I guess that's why there is no resort on mount Washington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted May 20, 2015 Author Share Posted May 20, 2015 Did they change the frost/freeze program dates? Coos county's growing season doesn't start for almost 3 more weeks IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted May 20, 2015 Share Posted May 20, 2015 eek, I planted all my annuals and window boxes. I'm up high so hoping I will be okay tonight. 51F at 3pm is a pretty low temp with mostly sunny skies. Hope I can "eek" out tonight then I think I'm good for the rest of the season. Pond is dropping dramatically. Never seen it so low so early in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted May 20, 2015 Share Posted May 20, 2015 Did they change the frost/freeze program dates? Coos county's growing season doesn't start for almost 3 more weeks IIRC. GYX said that the frost-free season for the Maine mts begins 5/21. If that's the case, probably Coos is put into the same bag. More numbers for Mansfield snowpack: Avg max depth 87", median 86". Avg/median date it occurs, Mar 25. Avg last day of continuous 1"+: May 21, median May 23. Looking by decade, except for the 1950s total snowfall has been near 200", with the 70s and 2000s at 260". '50s only 143". Avg max depth was 99" in the 1970s, only 76" for the 60s despite 149" for 68-69, and has been around 90" for 90s, 00s, 10s. Ignoring the snowless 50s, last day has usually averaged around May 20-22, but averaged May 24-26 for the 70s and 00s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 20, 2015 Share Posted May 20, 2015 More numbers for Mansfield snowpack: Avg max depth 87", median 86". Avg/median date it occurs, Mar 25. Avg last day of continuous 1"+: May 21, median May 23. Looking by decade, except for the 1950s total snowfall has been near 200", with the 70s and 2000s at 260". '50s only 143". The bolded part is probably why we are sort of spoiled now. The 2000s were just so good for snow, and even the second half of the 90s. The Co-Op snow measuring is an interesting topic that's been hashed out often, but the the gist of the totals can show the trends. Probably some regressing to the mean lately... as I bolded the years since 1995-1996 that have failed to reach 200" at the Co-Op. The 14 winters between 1995-96 and 2008-09 only failed to hit 200" in the precip bucket 3 times...but now we've strung off 6 in a row. 1995...309.60 1996...284.90 1997...259.90 1998...193.40 1999...261.70 2000...310.00 2001...211.90 2002...169.40 2003...210.90 2004...182.80 2005...204.10 2006...232.80 2007...250.20 2008...209.30 2009...198.80 2010...180.60 2011...126.20 2012...170.20 2013...179.30 2014...164.50 If we get a 250"+ winter at the Co-Op (correlating to 350+" on the snowboard) one of these years its going to feel especially big considering the past several seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 20, 2015 Share Posted May 20, 2015 Forecast low temperatures... Frost Advisories now issued for Vermont from the Spine eastward. Freeze Warnings out in New Hampshire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 Did they change the frost/freeze program dates? Coos county's growing season doesn't start for almost 3 more weeks IIRC. Not our decision unfortunately. The aim was to align consistency in products a little better, rather than actually looking at median dates of last frost/freeze. I'm pretty sure nobody I've spoken to in the interior has started planting anything yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 This is 9 days earlier (in each zone) than we started things last spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted May 21, 2015 Author Share Posted May 21, 2015 2015-05-20_23-39-31.png This is 9 days earlier (in each zone) than we started things last spring. I love maps like these. Never would have guessed a sizeable chunk of PA has freezes as late as parts of Aroostook county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 I love maps like these. Never would have guessed a sizeable chunk of PA has freezes as late as parts of Aroostook county. I'm not sure which offices have included the "local adjustments" or not, but I can confirm we haven't adjusted anything from this recommendation (though we might for next year). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 Looks like there might be a bit of snow on the spine of the Greens at the moment. I can confirm that. I was up on Mount Abe yesterday and there was a dusting of fresh snow, as well as some rime ice. Also talked to couple of hikers who were up there when it was snowing: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 22, 2015 Share Posted May 22, 2015 I've had 0.12" of rain so far this month. Since I moved here in June 2006 I've had only 3 months that finished with under 1.00" of liquid. May 2008 0.54" Nov 2012 0.57" Sep 2014 0.96" Dry indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted May 22, 2015 Share Posted May 22, 2015 I've had 0.12" of rain so far this month. Since I moved here in June 2006 I've had only 3 months that finished with under 1.00" of liquid. May 2008 0.54" Nov 2012 0.57" Sep 2014 0.96" Dry indeed. I would have had the same but really lucked out on that severe warned cell (that just missed you). Got about 1/2 from that thankfully. Usually I wouldn't care about moderate droughts but 3 years ago we did a huge house project outside. Our 225 year old house needed a new foundation so had to remove all the yards around the house for the excavator. All my good topsoil was mixed in with the crap sand like dirt underneath. Anyhow when they put the yard back in they only put about 2" of topsoil back. I never did anything to my grass since the soil was so good but now its constant watering or it dies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted May 22, 2015 Share Posted May 22, 2015 I love maps like these. Never would have guessed a sizeable chunk of PA has freezes as late as parts of Aroostook county. Some of the elevated valleys NW of me can easily see frost into June, and we've had temps around 40° in July in the last few years. Just 15 miles WSW of my location there is The Barrens, which have been in the low-mid 20s in JJA. I think it's crazy there is a place here that in a bad summer (last year, for example) would basically have no growing season for cold-sensitive plants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted May 22, 2015 Share Posted May 22, 2015 I've had 0.12" of rain so far this month. Since I moved here in June 2006 I've had only 3 months that finished with under 1.00" of liquid. May 2008 0.54" Nov 2012 0.57" Sep 2014 0.96" Dry indeed. I've had 7 such months since moving here in May 1998 (that half-month isn't included.) Apr 1999...0.31" Jan 2004....0.57" Nov 2012...0.84" Sep 2014...0.84" Apr 2001...0.85" Aug 2002..0.88" Jul 2012....0.99" Since I got some rain earlier this week, my May total is up to 0.91". I'm guessing that the month will climb out of the sub-1" class, but still finish lower than the 1.80" in 2010, my wettest on the 12-dry-months list. Assuming that happens, I'll have recorded less than 2" in 3 of the past 4 months, a first for my current location and only the 2nd time since my records began early in 1973. In Ft.Kent I had less than 2" for 5 months in a row, July-Nov 1978, a streak that totaled just 7.31". That was the summer when the leaves began turning brown and crispy after mid August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 22, 2015 Share Posted May 22, 2015 I've had 7 such months since moving here in May 1998 (that half-month isn't included.) Apr 1999...0.31" Jan 2004....0.57" Nov 2012...0.84" Sep 2014...0.84" Apr 2001...0.85" Aug 2002..0.88" Jul 2012....0.99" Since I got some rain earlier this week, my May total is up to 0.91". I'm guessing that the month will climb out of the sub-1" class, but still finish lower than the 1.80" in 2010, my wettest on the 12-dry-months list. Assuming that happens, I'll have recorded less than 2" in 3 of the past 4 months, a first for my current location and only the 2nd time since my records began early in 1973. In Ft.Kent I had less than 2" for 5 months in a row, July-Nov 1978, a streak that totaled just 7.31". That was the summer when the leaves began turning brown and crispy after mid August. Now that is pretty noteworthy... especially in your location which is prone to late winter QPF events from the Gulf of Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 22, 2015 Share Posted May 22, 2015 Chilly night on tap. BTV has frost and freeze headlines out, and I'm assuming GYX will convert to a warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted May 22, 2015 Share Posted May 22, 2015 Now that is pretty noteworthy... especially in your location which is prone to late winter QPF events from the Gulf of Maine. And one reason this late winter was such a letdown is that those events were a no-show, unlike March 2014 when two 13"+ storms dragged my snow total from the lower half of KevInMA's snow table to 5th or 6th place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted May 22, 2015 Author Share Posted May 22, 2015 Some of the elevated valleys NW of me can easily see frost into June, and we've had temps around 40° in July in the last few years. Just 15 miles WSW of my location there is The Barrens, which have been in the low-mid 20s in JJA. I think it's crazy there is a place here that in a bad summer (last year, for example) would basically have no growing season for cold-sensitive plants. Good lord, that is brutal. Always assumed that sort of nonsense was confined to the radiational cooling spots in NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted May 22, 2015 Share Posted May 22, 2015 It looks like the clouds are in no hurry to go away here tonight with gusty winds. That will make it quite a bit harder to see a real drop overnight unless it clears out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 23, 2015 Share Posted May 23, 2015 Its been dry... Springfield stands out to me a bit. Average winter precip for a bit but then has flatline since then. Definitely drier lately in a stripe from southern/central VT east through southern/central New Hampshire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 23, 2015 Share Posted May 23, 2015 It looks like the clouds are in no hurry to go away here tonight with gusty winds. That will make it quite a bit harder to see a real drop overnight unless it clears out. Not only that but its now raining out here. Looks like upslope rain, lol. Its that wind driven small droplet rain that would be nice low QPF snow in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 23, 2015 Share Posted May 23, 2015 .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...AS OF 651 PM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER AND POPS FORLIGHT RAIN (HIGH SUMMIT SNOW) SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKSESEWD INTO CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HRS...BASED ONCURRENT RADAR TRENDS. A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH RAINFALL AREPOSSIBLE IN SPOTS ACROSS ESSEX NY/ADDISON VT COUNTIES. SHOULD SEETHIS ACTIVITY GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AS IT MOVESEWD. REMAINDER OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK...AND STILL ANTICIPATEBELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AWAY FROM THE CHAMPLAINVALLEY. EXPECTING SKIES TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT...WITH AREA UNDERSTRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW PASSESJUST EAST OF THE REGION ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE OVERNIGHT. 850 MBTEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN -6C TO -8C AND 500MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -26C TO -33C AT 06Z SATURDAY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted May 23, 2015 Share Posted May 23, 2015 Not only that but its now raining out here. Looks like upslope rain, lol. Its that wind driven small droplet rain that would be nice low QPF snow in the winter. Yep and perhaps a few flakes on the summits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted May 23, 2015 Share Posted May 23, 2015 Yep and perhaps a few flakes on the summits I swear I just saw mangled flakes on I89 in Brookfield. The car thermo was reading 38F and we were at 1700' or so. Maybe I was just imagining things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 23, 2015 Share Posted May 23, 2015 I swear I just saw mangled flakes on I89 in Brookfield. The car thermo was reading 38F and we were at 1700' or so. Maybe I was just imagining things.My friend down near MRG said he had legit light snow at 1,700ft. The Bragg Hill station there at 1750ft is showing 35/28...that's a snow temp/dew.Bolton Valley is 35/23 at 2,100ft, and that's a sub freezing wet bulb so I bet they may have seen flakes as those showers moved through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 23, 2015 Share Posted May 23, 2015 My friend down near MRG said he had legit light snow at 1,700ft. The Bragg Hill station there at 1750ft is showing 35/28...that's a snow temp/dew. Bolton Valley is 35/23 at 2,100ft, and that's a sub freezing wet bulb so I bet they may have seen flakes as those showers moved through. It's snowing in the Adirondacks near Blue Mountain Lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 23, 2015 Share Posted May 23, 2015 It's snowing in the Adirondacks near Blue Mountain Lake. From Cold MIser's post or did you get another report? Its certainly snowing above 1,700ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted May 23, 2015 Share Posted May 23, 2015 What month is it? Cold as heck. 43f with a stiff wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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