NNE Winter: just can't compete with Maple Hollow.

[ineedsnow]

One of my friends is in Vermont and I guess its snowing around burlington

[J.Spin]

Steady light snow here in the valley but nothing really sticking.

 

Yeah, steady here as well.  It’s begun to stick to the ground now instead of just the elevated surfaces, so you can tell it’s picked up a notch.

[eyewall]

Sticking now a little but it may end before BTV can get its first tenth.

[mreaves]

Sticking now a little but it may end before BTV can get its first tenth.

Yeah, I just left Lowes in S. Burlington and the steady snow is sticking to the mulch beds and other old surfaces.

[adk]

Sticking now a little but it may end before BTV can get its first tenth.

 

Close...down here by red rocks park we got about 1/10" or so...maybe 1/5th on colder surfaces....though nothing on the concrete really. 

 

At least it made it feel seasonal. 

[eyewall]

Close...down here by red rocks park we got about 1/10" or so...maybe 1/5th on colder surfaces....though nothing on the concrete really.

At least it made it feel seasonal.

Haha yeah not a great start this year

Sent from my VS986 using Tapatalk

[J.Spin]

Close...down here by red rocks park we got about 1/10" or so...maybe 1/5th on colder surfaces....though nothing on the concrete really.

 

At least it made it feel seasonal.

 

We’ve picked up a half inch here at the house so far, with most surfaces whitened aside from the warm ones like the septic etc.  It’s pretty fluffy stuff, so there’s not going to be much liquid in it, but it has made the look a bit more wintry out there.

[Ginx snewx]

We’ve picked up a half inch here at the house so far, with most surfaces whitened aside from the warm ones like the septic etc. It’s pretty fluffy stuff, so there’s not going to be much liquid in it, but it has made the look a bit more wintry out there.

lol we used to refer to our location in SWRI as the septic tank of NE during winter

[powderfreak]

We’ve picked up a half inch here at the house so far, with most surfaces whitened aside from the warm ones like the septic etc.  It’s pretty fluffy stuff, so there’s not going to be much liquid in it, but it has made the look a bit more wintry out there.

 

Nice, only a tenth over this way.  Just enough for some flakes sticking to the grass and deck but not much beyond that.

[eyewall]

Yeah it definitely should register a tenth at BTV but we shall see.

[eyewall]

BTV just posted 0.2" at the airport officially. That means they will not zero out for November.

[eduggs]

I'm still watching Wed. night for the chance for a few inches of wet snow.  Especially in S and E parts of NNE at elevation.  The recent trend is to sharpen up the midwest ULL, which induces a weak wave of SLP along the coast.  Any sharper and that moisture slug gets up into NNE where the airmass is marginally supportive of frozen after about 0z Thurs.

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 0.5” Snow/Trace L.E.

 

I cored today’s accumulation from the snowboard, but didn’t find it adding up to even 0.01” of liquid so it’s going down as a trace.

 

Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.5 inches

New Liquid: Trace

Temperature: 28.4 F

Sky: Flurries

Snow at the stake: Trace

 

Since the snow had mostly shut off, I figured that was it for today, but there could be a bit more building in.

 

 

There seem to be a few possibilities for additional snow in the next week or so, with the best chances in the higher elevations of course.  The BTV NWS forecast discussion talks about the first couple chances in the long term:

 

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

…COOLING TEMPS ALOFT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO A MIX OR CHANGEOVER TO SOME SNOW EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS. WITH PASSAGE OF UPPER LOW LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR ANY SHOWERS TO TRANSITION TO MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE TAPERING OFF. BULK OF ACTIVITY BY THIS TIME WILL BE OROGRAPHIC IN NATURE...FAVORING THE WESTERN SLOPES. FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ON THURSDAY FROM A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. EXPECT SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOME CLEARING WILL FOLLOW FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY BRING SOME CLOUDS AND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY.

[J.Spin]

I'm still watching Wed. night for the chance for a few inches of wet snow.  Especially in S and E parts of NNE at elevation.  The recent trend is to sharpen up the midwest ULL, which induces a weak wave of SLP along the coast.  Any sharper and that moisture slug gets up into NNE where the airmass is marginally supportive of frozen after about 0z Thurs.

 

The BTV NWS office is also watching that Wednesday night period as I posted above, although they seem to be focusing on the orographic potential.  It looks like there could be a couple of possibilities in play for producing some snow.

[eduggs]

There's some decent spread amongst the GEFS members for Wed - Thurs at 500mb.  A few members develop a deeper and sharper trof than the OP GFS and develop a coastal SLP with moderate QPF into NNY and NNE.  Those solutions, while in the minority, would yield a higher impact event than currently advertised.

 

I'm still low on the overall chance for accumulating snow (outside of the usual upslope/lake enhanced spots) on Wed night.  But if the next few model cycles continue the recent trend, I would be less pessimistic.

[eduggs]

The BTV NWS office is also watching that Wednesday night period as I posted above, although they seem to be focusing on the orographic potential.  It looks like there could be a couple of possibilities in play for producing some snow.

Agreed.  I really like the BTV NWS discussions.  Northern regions should have a shot for orograhic/instability snow showers with the ULL passage regardless.  A deeper, sharper system aloft would probably enhance that, especially if a stronger SLP developed in response.  And that would introduce the possibility for more synoptic scale influence, which could get places further south into the game.

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 0.8” Snow/Trace L.E.

 

Last night’s second round of snow brought an additional 0.3” to the boards, but as before it was incredibly dry.  There’s a solid skiff of it out there whitening the ground, but it’s still below the 0.5” mark.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.3 inches

New Liquid: Trace

Temperature: 15.4 F

Sky: Clear

Snow at the stake: Trace

 

The next opportunities for snow continue to be in the midweek and late week periods per this morning’s discussion from the BTV NWS.

[powderfreak]

You guys all sound like you are describing driving past J.Spin's house on I-89 through the Spine, lol. 

 

Localized to the point that each mile nets you 10 more inches of seasonal snowfall.

 

A good example... a buddy of mine said yesterday afternoon driving back from BTV it was snowing lightly the whole time, but kicked up a notch or two to steady accumulating snow in the vicinity of the switchbacks between Bolton and Waterbury (right where J.Spin is).  Then it went back to light snow and flurries on the east side.

 

Over here we had 0.1" as I've still got snow on the lawn, but these little differences are what add up throughout the season.

 

[klw]

12 Z GFS is pretty close to being really interesting for Wed/Thurs

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015113012&fh=66&xpos=0&ypos=499.9999891627921

[powderfreak]

12 Z GFS is pretty close to being really interesting for Wed/Thurs

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015113012&fh=66&xpos=0&ypos=499.9999891627921

The next two panels are interesting...brings like 2-4" to northern VT, especially NEK.

[backedgeapproaching]

Got a little vist today in the backyard. I'm no expert, guess this guy is like 1 or 2 yrs old? Some other locals that have lived here 30 yrs have never seen a moose close to town.

[J.Spin]

The BTV NWS is definitely starting to talk about potential for snow in the second half of the week in their short and long-term discussions:

 

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 315 PM EST MONDAY...

 

ON WEDS...SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL DRYING OCCURS OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHILE INITIAL LIFT AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF RAIN WILL LIFT NORTH OF OUR CWA. HOWEVER....AS CLOSED SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY 18Z WEDS...ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM PIECE OF ENERGY WILL ROUND THE TROF BASE AND HELP DEVELOP WEAK SURFACE LOW PRES NEAR WASHINGTON DC. THIS LOW PRES WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE BY 12Z THURSDAY...WHILE CLOSED 5H/7H SYSTEM MOVES JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE SECONDARY COASTAL SYSTEM WILL HELP TO PULL DEEPER SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN FORECAST AREA...WHILE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS ON NORTH WINDS BY 00Z THURS. THINKING RAIN REDEVELOPS BETWEEN 21Z-00Z...BUT TURNS TO A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF VT. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW MUCH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS PULLED NORTH INTO THIS SYSTEM TRACKING TO OUR NORTH AND HOW QUICKLY SECONDARY SURFACE LOW PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST. WILL MENTION LIKELY TO CAT POPS WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. HELPING PROMOTE ADDITIONAL LIFT ACROSS OUR REGION IS 250MB DUAL JET COUPLET AT 00Z THURS...BUT THIS FEATURE QUICKLY SHIFTS NORTH AS PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. THE SYNOPTIC PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF UPSLOPE PRECIP LATE WEDS NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE ENDING. SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES AND NORTHERN DACKS. STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON AMOUNTS AS FEEL UPSLOPE QPF/MOISTURE IS OVERDONE BASED ON FAST PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND TRACK OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM.

 

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

AS OF 303 PM EST MONDAY...

 

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND MOISTURE PROGS. FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON THURSDAY WHERE STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WHILE THE PARENT CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE ON THE BTV CWA DOORSTEP SHIFTING EASTWARD. AMPLE MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE SURFACE LOW INTERACTING WITH LIFT/ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WITH SNOW LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGHER SUMMITS AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. AS WE SHIFT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, THE BEST LIFT AND DEEP MOISTURE SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION WITH A BRIEF SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN, DRYING OUT CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

 

FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE LOW SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA WITH MORE SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED, BUT LIKELY MORE WIDELY SCATTERED THAN ON THURSDAY WITH WEAKER OVERALL UPPER DYNAMICS.

[borderwx]

Hopefully the snow arrives.  Chilly start on the hill today, 10F, nice sunrise and a good looking snow line on the Northern Greens.

 

[powderfreak]

18z GFS has some good backside upslope.

 

 

[powderfreak]

Yesterday I promised some photos of the "reverse snow line" where it snowed more at mid-mountain than at the summit.

 

There was quite a bit of rime on the trees, but there was a solid inch of snow too.  There was no snow or white on the mountain prior to this event unfortunately.

 

So riding up the lift, it looks very wintery in the 1,500-3,000ft range.

 

 

Wintery rime and snow.

 

 

 

Meanwhile snow actually decreased as you rose towards the summit, most noticeably in the final few hundred feet.

 

This photo sort of shows it, of course the rime decreases but the snow on the ground under the Quad also decreases as it crests the rise and goes out of view.

 

 

 

And this photo shows it really well...it snowed on the mountain below the ridgeline while the ridge was out of the clouds and in the sunshine.

 

 

 

 

[dendrite]

16.9F for the low...saw a couple of 5Fs at the Errol and 1st Lake COOPs.

[eekuasepinniW]

20.5 for the low here.

 

frosty.

[J.Spin]

Totals for this November at our VT-WS-19 station were 2.0” snow/1.86 L.E.

 

Snowfall was certainly less than average this past month, but actually right at one S.D. below the mean due to the month’s high volatility, which would argue that having a November with this sort of snowfall is not that aberrant.  This November’s snowfall was greater than what fell in the month during both 2006 and 2009, and fairly similar to 2010.  Following up those months, none of the subsequent Decembers were especially prolific with respect to snowfall.  The 2006 and 2009 Decembers were both below average, however December 2010 did manage a fairly average but respectable 46.0” of snow.

 

Liquid was just 60% of average for the month, but still just within one S.D. so apparently not that extreme of an occurrence.

[powderfreak]

Totals for this November at our VT-WS-19 station were 2.0” snow/1.86 L.E.

 

Snowfall was certainly less than average this past month, but actually right at one S.D. below the mean due to the month’s high volatility, which would argue that having a November with this sort of snowfall is not that aberrant.  This November’s snowfall was greater than what fell in the month during both 2006 and 2009, and fairly similar to 2010.  Following up those months, none of the subsequent Decembers were especially prolific with respect to snowfall.  The 2006 and 2009 Decembers were both below average, however December 2010 did manage a fairly average but respectable 46.0” of snow.

 

Liquid was just 60% of average for the month, but still just within on S.D. so apparently not that extreme of an occurrence.

 

Total precip and snow for Mansfield in November:

 

Actual Precip: 4.00"

Normal Precip: 7.47"

% of Normal: 55%

 

Actual Snow: 8.6"

Normal Snow: 33.3"

% of Normal: 26%

 

For the ski resort's numbers, this is one of the few months the Co-Op beat 3,000ft as it was elevation snow.  I have 6" for this November, compared to 50" last November.

[J.Spin]

Total precip and snow for Mansfield in November:

 

Actual Precip: 4.00"

Normal Precip: 7.47"

% of Normal: 55%

 

Actual Snow: 8.6"

Normal Snow: 33.3"

% of Normal: 26%

 

For the ski resort's numbers, this is one of the few months the Co-Op beat 3,000ft as it was elevation snow.  I have 6" for this November, compared to 50" last November.

 

Thanks for the numbers and mountain pics PF, great stuff.  Definitely a low November for the mountain in terms of natural snow but it doesn’t seem like it’s that horrendous of a weather pattern.  You guys must be able to blow snow like nobody’s business with the way these overnight temperatures keep dipping down – we were well down into the mid teens F even at our place last night.