Ginx snewx Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 From around 2,500ft... Real_snow3.jpg Real_snow.jpg real_snow2.jpg Itching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Turns. Get 'em in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 I think J.Spin touched on it a couple days ago...but its always incredible to me how "upslope events" are fairly easily seen way out in advance and they certainly don't have the model run-to-run variability of say a coastal storm. Granted some coastals are well modeled, but for the most part little wobbles in the track make huge differences. With upslope events it just seems like when the signal is there, it tends to happen. This one could be seen from 7 days out and it was there on every single model run until T-minus 0. Maybe its because there is no doubt where the heaviest precipitation is going to fall...if its going to happen, you know exactly where its going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 I think J.Spin touched on it a couple days ago...but its always incredible to me how "upslope events" are fairly easily seen way out in advance and they certainly don't have the model run-to-run variability of say a coastal storm. Granted some coastals are well modeled, but for the most part little wobbles in the track make huge differences. With upslope events it just seems like when the signal is there, it tends to happen. This one could be seen from 7 days out and it was there on every single model run until T-minus 0. Maybe its because there is no doubt where the heaviest precipitation is going to fall...if its going to happen, you know exactly where its going to happen. so true hopefully you have upper tens of these this year. so great to watch even from afar, good stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 First flakes here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Partly cloudy and windy here but no flakes seen. Temp slid from 39 to 34 in the 3 hours I was outside waiting for the deer to come by. (But they're all hunkering down as the wind keeps them from hearing danger.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Surprised to see a few flakes even made it here at the coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 I should add that my storm total liquid at home was 1.34". Fairly decent QPF for an orographic event for town. At the base of the mountain the Stratus gauge looks a third full, haha. Maybe 2.5" or something. The Davis tipper did almost 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 I like this report from Orleans county (Jay Peak and the Spine is on the Orleans/Franklin county line)...one side of the county has a tenth to a half inch of rainfall, while the other side of the county picks up almost 2". One side had showery precipitation with some steady periods, but the west side of the county was just like steady moderate to torrential rainfall. 1.88" in a 24-hour period at Westfield is definitely a big total for orographic precipitation. They ended up with a 2-day total of 2.43". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Cloudy windy constant light flurries past couple of hours 33.5F. Cardigan 3150' is snow covered at is peak. While its overcast here can look 20 miles to south and see mostly sunny skies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Flurries have intensified a bit here; looking down the notch you can see snow-covered trees just past Black Mountain, and the backside of Wildcat seems quite white. Might go for a ride later. I love my new digs - even though its only 1250 ft, it's really perched up, and it feels very mountainy. Picture from my window looking towards Mt Washington (which of course is completely hidden) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Event totals: 0.9” Snow/0.98” L.E. It’s been snowing lightly all morning bringing another 0.6” of accumulation. Details from the 1:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.6 inches New Liquid: 0.06 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0 Snow Density: 10.0% H2O Temperature: 34.5 F Sky: Light Snow (1-2 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: Trace Getting valley snow accumulations with the current storm already puts this November into an entirely different league than November 2006, and ensures that it’s not going to go snowless the way that November did. This November has already had more snow than November 2009 as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 I think J.Spin touched on it a couple days ago...but its always incredible to me how "upslope events" are fairly easily seen way out in advance and they certainly don't have the model run-to-run variability of say a coastal storm. Granted some coastals are well modeled, but for the most part little wobbles in the track make huge differences. With upslope events it just seems like when the signal is there, it tends to happen. This one could be seen from 7 days out and it was there on every single model run until T-minus 0. Maybe its because there is no doubt where the heaviest precipitation is going to fall...if its going to happen, you know exactly where its going to happen. Less margin for error though. When the coastal wobbles 100 miles south, all of a sudden the Pit needs to worry about QPF. But if your low over the Maritimes is off by 100 miles, you still get get cool, moist NW flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Flurries have intensified a bit here; looking down the notch you can see snow-covered trees just past Black Mountain, and the backside of Wildcat seems quite white. Might go for a ride later. I love my new digs - even though its only 1250 ft, it's really perched up, and it feels very mountainy. Picture from my window looking towards Mt Washington (which of course is completely hidden) Alex, congrads. I think you should buy a nestcam so we have streaming images for your site!! I'll chip in $25! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Less margin for error though. When the coastal wobbles 100 miles south, all of a sudden the Pit needs to worry about QPF. But if your low over the Maritimes is off by 100 miles, you still get get cool, moist NW flow. Yeah that's what I figure...you need moisture and wind. The forcing is always in place, so you don't have to worry about where the lift will come from. And moisture and wind seems to be more easily forecast than exactly placements of surface lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Thanks! Really love the place. I actually looked into a streaming can at some point but it was a bit complicated.... I'll look at the nestcam! Alex, congrads. I think you should buy a nestcam so we have streaming images for your site!! I'll chip in $25! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Thanks! Really love the place. I actually looked into a streaming cam at some point but it was a bit complicated to set up.... I'll look at the nestcam! Alex, congrads. I think you should buy a nestcam so we have streaming images for your site!! I'll chip in $25! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 From around 2,500ft... Real_snow3.jpg There was 6" on the road here...with no previous snow, and a road surface, very easy measuring. It was funny walking around being like, this is real snow. This isn't just some dusting, this was the real deal, haha. It was cold and dry but had some heft to it, I bet the liquid content was fairly decent. Real_snow.jpg real_snow2.jpg Sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Event totals: 0.9” Snow/0.98” L.E. It’s been snowing lightly all morning bringing another 0.6” of accumulation. Details from the 1:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.6 inches New Liquid: 0.06 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0 Snow Density: 10.0% H2O Temperature: 34.5 F Sky: Light Snow (1-2 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: Trace Getting valley snow accumulations with the current storm already puts this November into an entirely different league than November 2006, and ensures that it’s not going to go snowless the way that November did. This November has already had more snow than November 2009 as well. Good stuff. I had 0.4" here, and while it seemed like there were flakes in the air all morning through noontime, I couldn't find evidence of any further accumulation today. Actually, while it was snowing today the coating on the grass last night melted back, haha. Its always interesting when its snowing out but you are watching the stuff on the ground disappear. The ground is still so warm (and very soggy from over an inch of rain), that it must've been snowing at a decent clip for a little after midnight last night to even whiten the ground in the first place. Even just a couple miles up the road by Topnotch to the Matterhorn there was a much healthier coating of maybe an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Dense wet snow yesterday and last night which dried out quickly this morning, but still a surprisingly good collection by the Mansfield Co-Op. 8" in 24 hours is a respectable total from the Co-Op's precipitation gauge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Dense wet snow yesterday and last night which dried out quickly this morning, but still a surprisingly good collection by the Mansfield Co-Op. 8" in 24 hours is a respectable total from the Co-Op's precipitation gauge. Dried out yes. Insanely windslabby with breakable crust of 3" over 6" of powder in places. Yes as well. Wind must have really howled last night and yesterday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 A couple early season snow photos from yesterday: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 A couple early season snow photos from yesterday: Well, based on the Exif data in your photos, it looks like you’ve got your Canon EOS 7D Mark II; hopefully it’s serving you well. It certainly looks like it from the landscapes so far – I’ve currently got your first one up there as my computer desktop. I did get a chance to get out to Mansfield yesterday, so I’m passing along a couple of photos below. At midday, the first signs of snow along the Mountain Road appeared in the 900’ – 1,000’ elevation range just below The Matterhorn, and up ~1,500’ at the Mansfield Base Lodge there was a patchy inch. Temperatures at base elevation were in the 40s F, so there was plenty of melting going on, but even to the bottom of North Slope there was decent coverage because apparently some snowmaking had been done. Lots of people were out having a blast in that area. There’s definitely plenty of snow up high still, because the views of the peaks have been beautifully white today. I’ve got some additional info and images from yesterday in my full report. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Dense wet snow yesterday and last night which dried out quickly this morning, but still a surprisingly good collection by the Mansfield Co-Op. 8" in 24 hours is a respectable total from the Co-Op's precipitation gauge. Well, there’s still half a foot up there as of yesterday evening’s co-op report, so it’s had some staying power. This pattern of potential snows roughly each weekend seems to be continuing – BTV NWS is starting to talk about the coming weekend in their discussion. They mention a couple of possibilities, but both seem to have some snow potential: .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 330 AM EST MONDAY...OVERALL AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR REGION FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7 WITH LARGE SCALE PATTERN SUPPORTING A DEVELOPING TROUGH. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF EVOLUTION AND DEPTH OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LATEST 00Z ECMWF IS MUCH DEEPER WITH DEVELOPING A CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND TAKING THIS SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND DEVELOPING A 973MB LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF JAY PEAK. THIS WOULD PLACE OUR CWA UNDER FAVORABLE BACKSIDE DEFORMATION ZONE WITH SIGNIFICANT UPSLOPE RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY. HOWEVER...THINKING THIS TROF AMPLIFICATION IS OVERDONE GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT AND WILL TREND TOWARD THE GFS/GEM SOLUTION. THIS SUPPORTS A POTENT CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA ON SUNDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY...WITH SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SURFACE LOW PRES TRACK TO OUR NORTH...THINKING HEAVIEST QPF WILL BE TERRAIN DRIVEN ASSOCIATED WITH BRISK SOUTHWEST WINDS. WILL MENTION HIGHEST POPS IN THE NORTHERN DACKS AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EJECT AWAY FROM OUR CWA WITH CLEARING AND COOL TEMPERATURES FROM EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES AND EXPECTED WIND DIRECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY RANGE IN THE 30S MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 40S VALLEYS WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 30S VALLEYS. Boy, perusing the point forecast at elevation on Mansfield, I have to think there are also going to be times that the mountain can put down some snow from the guns heading into the holiday week: Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Windy, with a west wind 23 to 28 mph decreasing to 11 to 16 mph after midnight. Saturday: A 30 percent chance of snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 28. Windy, with a west wind 9 to 19 mph increasing to 19 to 29 mph in the afternoon. Saturday Night: A 30 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Very windy, with a southwest wind 36 to 41 mph increasing to 44 to 49 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 60 mph. Sunday: Snow showers likely. Partly sunny, with a high near 29. Very windy, with a west wind around 41 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Sunday Night: A 40 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 19. Very windy, with a west wind 36 to 41 mph decreasing to 30 to 35 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph. Monday: A 40 percent chance of snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 26. Windy, with a west wind 32 to 37 mph becoming southwest 23 to 28 mph in the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Since its quiet here I thought I would post a picture from my brother's house in Aspen. Screen shot as of Monday PM. Got a nice little dump of snow yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 So today I had to run an errand in Morrisville, one town north of Stowe. On the Stowe/Morrisville border, is the MVL ASOS. When I drove by, I noticed the ASOS was completely gone. The thing sits right by the road, so its easy to see. It was there just a couple days ago, but I noticed MVL stopped reporting yesterday morning. I found it funny to think about maybe some weather weenie broke in at night and stole the entire ASOS set-up for their own backyard. Either way, it was gone. Just an empty pen surrounded by razor wire. So on the way home I decided I'd drive by slower and take a good look...sure enough, I found them setting up a new ASOS about 100 yards away. So evidently, the MVL ASOS is hopefully getting an overhaul as its precipitation guage has been useless (the last upslope precip event, I had 1.34" and MVL had 0.07") for the past year at least. I hope its new equipment, not just the old one moved. But the old one was gone, so that's my fear. Anyone know when they do this do they replace the thing or just pick it up and move it? The other thing I noticed is I wonder if MVL will be able to radiate even a little better in its new spot. There's obviously no tarmac concerns here, but now its even more out in the middle of a field. Before it was out near the road with some trees and buildings not too far away (you can see in the first picture of the old site). Now its really out there smack dab in the middle of the field. It wouldn't surprise me if it gives it another degree or so on radiational cooling nights. Should be a little better wind data too with absolutely no obstructions in any direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Since its quiet here I thought I would post a picture from my brother's house in Aspen. Screen shot as of Monday PM. Got a nice little dump of snow yesterday.huge totals in NM, SW Co Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 So today I had to run an errand in Morrisville, one town north of Stowe. On the Stowe/Morrisville border, is the MVL ASOS. When I drove by, I noticed the ASOS was completely gone. The thing sits right by the road, so its easy to see. It was there just a couple days ago, but I noticed MVL stopped reporting yesterday morning. I found it funny to think about maybe some weather weenie broke in at night and stole the entire ASOS set-up for their own backyard. Either way, it was gone. Just an empty pen surrounded by razor wire. So on the way home I decided I'd drive by slower and take a good look...sure enough, I found them setting up a new ASOS about 100 yards away. So evidently, the MVL ASOS is hopefully getting an overhaul as its precipitation guage has been useless (the last upslope precip event, I had 1.34" and MVL had 0.07") for the past year at least. I hope its new equipment, not just the old one moved. But the old one was gone, so that's my fear. Anyone know when they do this do they replace the thing or just pick it up and move it? The other thing I noticed is I wonder if MVL will be able to radiate even a little better in its new spot. There's obviously no tarmac concerns here, but now its even more out in the middle of a field. Before it was out near the road with some trees and buildings not too far away (you can see in the first picture of the old site). Now its really out there smack dab in the middle of the field. It wouldn't surprise me if it gives it another degree or so on radiational cooling nights. Should be a little better wind data too with absolutely no obstructions in any direction. things only us weenies would ever notice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 things only us weenies would ever notice Haha yep. There's no way any normal person would notice that. I just want them to relocate that ASOS into my backyard. I will say I do like the new location better. Often we see an ASOS move and you are sort of scratching your head as to why... this move puts the new location smack dab in the middle of the field, away from the road, buildings, trees, etc. This was the old spot right on the road.. And the new one is way out there in the middle of the field, un-obstructed by anything. Should give a great representation of "field climo" (warm dry days, cold nights). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Haha yep. There's no way any normal person would notice that. I just want them to relocate that ASOS into my backyard. I will say I do like the new location better. Often we see an ASOS move and you are sort of scratching your head as to why... this move puts the new location smack dab in the middle of the field, away from the road, buildings, trees, etc. This was the old spot right on the road.. MVL2.jpg And the new one is way out there in the middle of the field, un-obstructed by anything. Should give a great representation of "field climo" (warm dry days, cold nights). MVL1.jpg Definitely a better spot then that roadside spot it was at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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