eekuasepinniW Posted November 12, 2015 Author Share Posted November 12, 2015 heavy miserymist pretty much all day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Gotta love the 4km WRF for going crazy with orographic precipitation. I doubt this upslope event brings 2" of QPF to the summits . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 12z GFS still has a pretty decent high elevation snow event, with potential for 6" at the summits. Looks like tomorrow night will see the most concentrated area of orographic precipitation. And this is 24-hour QPF with H85 temperatures below 0C. Snow levels stay up high till the tail end though, with maybe 0.15" left once the snow levels drop below 2,000ft. Looks nice; I definitely like the way that these northern stream systems tend to be a lot more consistent with respect to modeling and forecasts. At least as they’re predicted in the models, they don’t seem to have that volatility of the bigger coastal systems where you often have to wait until much closer to the actual occurrence of the storm before you know whether it’s going to mean snow, rain, or essentially nothing. Not that these types of storms don’t fizzle or overproduce relative to what the modeling suggests, but when the pattern gets going you can watch these things stack up in the modeling and the timing is often pretty good even out to a week. I wonder if these types of systems play a role in that lower annual snowfall variability that you talk about for up here in NNE. This event should be a nice interlude among the pleasant fall weather, and it could be fun to watch what goes on even in the lower elevations with the BTV forecasts and discussion mentioning snow levels lowering to the valleys: LINGERING SHOWERS AND OROGRAPHIC ACTIVITY SHOULD TURN OVER TO A PERIOD OF SNOW IN MANY AREAS BEFORE ENDING LATER FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY AS SNOW LEVELS LOWER FROM 2500-3000FT AT 00Z SAT TO 500FT OR LESS BY SATURDAY MORNING. There does appear to be more potential in the future as well – perhaps a week out, which seems to be about the pace these opportunities have been coming. We’ve certainly had snowier November patterns (although probably not too often in the first half of the month), but getting things to come together for snow opportunities once a week or so is pretty respectable in any November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Looks nice; I definitely like the way that these northern stream systems tend to be a lot more consistent with respect to modeling and forecasts. At least as they’re predicted in the models, they don’t seem to have that volatility of the bigger coastal systems where you often have to wait until much closer to the actual occurrence of the storm before you know whether it’s going to mean snow, rain, or essentially nothing. Not that these types of storms don’t fizzle or overproduce relative to what the modeling suggests, but when the pattern gets going you can watch these things stack up in the modeling and the timing is often pretty good even out to a week. I wonder if these types of systems play a role in that lower annual snowfall variability that you talk about for up here in NNE. This event should be a nice interlude among the pleasant fall weather, and it could be fun to watch what goes on even in the lower elevations with the BTV forecasts and discussion mentioning snow levels lowering to the valleys: LINGERING SHOWERS AND OROGRAPHIC ACTIVITY SHOULD TURN OVER TO A PERIOD OF SNOW IN MANY AREAS BEFORE ENDING LATER FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY AS SNOW LEVELS LOWER FROM 2500-3000FT AT 00Z SAT TO 500FT OR LESS BY SATURDAY MORNING. There does appear to be more potential in the future as well – perhaps a week out, which seems to be about the pace these opportunities have been coming. We’ve certainly had snowier November patterns (although probably not too often in the first half of the month), but getting things to come together for snow opportunities once a week or so is pretty respectable in any November. A couple more runs...the meso-scale models are picking up on a surprising amount of QPF over the next 48 hours. The EURO looked to have about 0.5-0.6" of QPF with H85 temps of 0C or lower (and total QPF of over an inch). Even if more than half of this is rain, the other half snow above 2,500ft, still points to the possibility of 6" or maybe more at the summits. 12z RGEM Naturally the BTV 4km WRF goes apesh*t and brings like 3" of QPF to Mansfield and Jay over the next 48 hours. It'll be curious to see what the liquid amounts are even in the mountain valleys surrounding the Spine, as its actually ramping up to be a decent QPF producer from 12z today through 12z Saturday. As a forecast, I like 3-6" above 2,500ft, with Coating-3" from 500-2,500ft. Locally higher summit amounts. I think snow levels will lower quickly after 03z Saturday, with even the mountain valleys waking up to snow showers and possible light accums on Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 I know Eek and Dendrite were having this discussion in the recent nor'easter thread (how orange and red pixels don't mean what they do in summer), but there has to be some bright banding going on here, too. Its raining moderately, but nothing like what these echoes would've meant a couple months ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Just a dreary day here in Bartlett. Been stuck in the clouds all day (so much for the great view!), temp stuck at 40F here at 1250 ft. Last year I was on my second week of skiing now... grrr... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 As a forecast, I like 3-6" above 2,500ft, with Coating-3" from 500-2,500ft. Locally higher summit amounts. I think snow levels will lower quickly after 03z Saturday, with even the mountain valleys waking up to snow showers and possible light accums on Saturday morning. I think that's about right particularly the "locally higher summit amounts". I could see an report of 8" above 3000'. (Or 14". Stuff happens this time of year). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 I think that's about right particularly the "locally higher summit amounts". I could see an report of 8" above 3000'. (Or 14". Stuff happens this time of year). Yeah, that's the wildcard. The meso-models are often a little high on QPF, but some of these times with good moisture its hard to tell. These earlier season and late season events have been known to be prolific precipitation producers. The wild card I see is if temps near 0C at H85 tomorrow are able to snow up at 3,000-4,000ft...then the summit ridges could pull a good 1" QPF as snow. It wouldn't surprise me to see liquid equivalent amounts along the Spine of 1-2" with deep moisture and a solid 25-40kts of sustained upslope flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ApacheTrout Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 nice line of heavy rain entering into western Vermont right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Yea,it looks pretty decent on radar. ALY put out a statement for 50-55mph gusts in ENY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Yeah, that's the wildcard. The meso-models are often a little high on QPF, but some of these times with good moisture its hard to tell. These earlier season and late season events have been known to be prolific precipitation producers. The wild card I see is if temps near 0C at H85 tomorrow are able to snow up at 3,000-4,000ft...then the summit ridges could pull a good 1" QPF as snow. It wouldn't surprise me to see liquid equivalent amounts along the Spine of 1-2" with deep moisture and a solid 25-40kts of sustained upslope flow. We'll know mid afternoon. Meso-Modeling shows 850s cooling to near 0c around 15z-18z if that holds I think the upper levels of the spine could see a very good snowfall. If it takes till 21 or 0z to cool then I think the 4-6" number is more likely. I'm also interested to see how much moisture sticks around till tomorrow am. Some -10c air is showing up in some models. That's the real magic number for making fluffy pow. If that line can nose in with decent moisture left in the 900 to 700mb layer a few fast fluffy inches could be tossed into this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 1.47" Wed 0.29" Thu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ApacheTrout Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 0.30 inches. About 30 seconds of pings on the window around 8 pm last night, but I was horizontal on the couch and too lazy to see what was making the noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 1.47" Wed 0.29" Thu November total thru 7 this morning: 0.42", almost all coming 5PM-midnight yesterday. Not complaining at all about not getting drenched Wed-Thurs as we were in the woods with the forest certification auditors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Wow has it been pouring this morning. Just torrential upslope rain on the east slope. Its that real small droplet stuff but just coming down in sheets. Stowe base area station had 0.45" at midnight, then a break until around 3-4am, but another 0.96" of liquid has fallen between 4am-10am. Closing in on 1.5" for a storm total so far. Maybe those WRF 2-3.5" amounts will work out. Radar loop. MVL ASOS is the "marker" for reference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 We'll know mid afternoon. Meso-Modeling shows 850s cooling to near 0c around 15z-18z if that holds I think the upper levels of the spine could see a very good snowfall. If it takes till 21 or 0z to cool then I think the 4-6" number is more likely. I'm also interested to see how much moisture sticks around till tomorrow am. Some -10c air is showing up in some models. That's the real magic number for making fluffy pow. If that line can nose in with decent moisture left in the 900 to 700mb layer a few fast fluffy inches could be tossed into this. If this was all snow it would've been huge. Respect the orographic lift. Thoroughly impressed with the precipitation production this morning. Stowe base just getting consistent 0.15-0.20" per hour rates since like 4am. Snowmakers coming in at midnight tonight, hopefully I'll be getting some text message updates overnight with high mountain updates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 If this was all snow it would've been huge. Respect the orographic lift. Thoroughly impressed with the precipitation production this morning. Stowe base just getting consistent 0.15-0.20" per hour rates since like 4am. Snowmakers coming in at midnight tonight, hopefully I'll be getting some text message updates overnight with high mountain updates. Pretty good fetch there. Strong winds making it rain on the east slope. Jspin must be doing well too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Pretty good fetch there. Strong winds making it rain on the east slope. Jspin must be doing well too. Yeah 40kts out of the west at 4,000ft and uniform flow is having no issue pushing moisture over the ridgeline to the east slope. Those westerly winds are just dumping QPF into the Stowe ski resort "bowl"... Radar estimates are doing a phenomenal job with it too...showing how localized it is. Red dots are ski area base and where I live. Wife says around 0.6" in the stratus at home (including yesterday) while the base area is up to 1.5" for the 24 hour period. Radar seems to have a good handle on those values. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Storm total from past 2 days was 1.22". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Snowing now on Mansfield above 3,500ft. Pretty much on target. It is absolutely pouring out down here though. Impressive precipitation event. We are going to add at least another 1.0" of QPF by tomorrow morning I bet. This event is having no issue with precip production. Mansfield just ripping moisture out of the sky right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 That's pretty darn cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 That's pretty darn cool. Its really a good event to dust off the rust and work on some upslope forecasting skills for winter. I'm weenie-ing out, but if this were like 2C colder it would be a huge snow event on the mountain. This is the type of persistent moist flow that gets measured in feet during the winter. Like being in an 18 hour deformation band of 30-35dbz. This is a classic Froude number of greater than 1.0...favoring the east side. So the radar above is the 2.5 degree scan. I like that one because there's no beam blockage by the spine. But if we lower down to the 1.5 degree scan, we get some mountain interference but you can also see clearly that the heavy precipitation is falling on the east side of the crest (county line). Pretty cool meso-scale meteorology in progress. Graphic from Muccilli's Froude study: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 We Froude. Well, NVT that is. Down in the banana belt normally just sloppy seconds. That piece that you posted the other day written by Nittany(I think?) regarding Upslope was a good read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Its really a good event to dust off the rust and work on some upslope forecasting skills for winter. I'm weenie-ing out, but if this were like 2C colder it would be a huge snow event on the mountain. This is the type of persistent moist flow that gets measured in feet during the winter. Like being in an 18 hour deformation band of 30-35dbz. This is a classic Froude number of greater than 1.0...favoring the east side. So the radar above is the 2.5 degree scan. I like that one because there's no beam blockage by the spine. But if we lower down to the 1.5 degree scan, we get some mountain interference but you can also see clearly that the heavy precipitation is falling on the east side of the crest (county line). Pretty cool meso-scale meteorology in progress. Graphic from Muccilli's Froude study: FroudeNumber.jpg what are they predicting for snow totals up top? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 what are they predicting for snow totals up top? I think 6" up top is a good value. Wasted over 1.5" QPF as rain up top, but should hopefully grab another 0.5-1.0" as wet snow. NWS has been bouncing around from 2-5" to 4-6" the past couple days for 3,000ft forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 If you want to take a meso-scale event and get even more meso-scale with it, Froude number appears to be lowering a bit as the wind starts ticking a bit more WNW instead of pure westerly. You can actually see the precipitation move from the east slopes to the west slopes here. Like a Lake Effect band, small subtle changes in wind flow will cause the band to oscillate around. You can see the 30+ dbz (the core of the upslope band) slowly moving westward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Pretty good fetch there. Strong winds making it rain on the east slope. Jspin must be doing well too. It was pouring when I left this morning, but I’ll have to see what the gauge says about today when I get home. Observations update: I’m looking right at the western slopes of the Northern Greens this moment, and although the temp is still a bit above freezing on Mansfield, the precipitation sure looks like snow instead of rain up high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 PF, Does Stowe have a good live camera at or near the top? Would be great to always get a live feed near the summit. I watch Coles Ponds camera at around 2000 feet when there is a forecast for a changeover. Anything higher in Vermont? Watching the showers get over here in Central NH. Looking at the precip falling looks like snow level is way up there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Looks like the freezing level is around 4000 per Mt Washington Auto Road profile... https://www.mountwashington.org/experience-the-weather/current-summit-conditions.aspx Also a good way to track changeovers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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