powderfreak Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 I was enjoying the mild weather until yesterday's snowmaking.... now I want snow again. I love the energy in town and at the mountain when the snow guns start up. Even the guy at the gas station that doesn't ski is talking about it. Everyone could see it for miles and miles, best advertising there is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 'Tis the season when every other GFS run has a blizzard in truncation land. Yes, The ole 384hr storms should become more prevalent now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Yes... the 6z GFS had a nice little clipper coupled with upslope backside flow. 24-hour precipitation with all sub-freezing column in the mountains. gfs_precip_24hr_neng_25.png 12z is even better. That snow making isn't to the base is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 12z is even better. That snow making isn't to the base is it? No, only from the top of the Triple chair on up...so the upper 1,000 verts. Top of the Mountain Triple is exactly at the mid-point of that route. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Sometimes I wonder if my Davis isn't working right. 41F while all other areas even down to the coast are low 20s to mid 30s. There are a couple stations nearby and close to my elevation that are mid 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 October snow totals from CoCoRAHS... will be interesting to see how long we wait before adding to this. Following up on this one again, I realized that I hadn’t posted the October totals for our site, so here they are: 1.7” snow/4.08” liquid So snowfall for the month was a bit above average, but total liquid was a couple inches low. Total liquid for the calendar year through October was 41.87”, which is about four inches on the lean side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Well, as of this morning’s BTV AFD, things continue to look interesting for the weekend – it’s nice when the experts start discussing “potent, vertically stacked lows”, “favorable conditions developing for upslope”, and “several inches of snow”. There’s snow even in our valley forecast, so that certainly a good sign for the higher elevations. .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 246 AM EST TUESDAY...UNSETTLED BUT SEASONAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. POTENT VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER MAKER FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC. ATTENDING WARM FRONT SHIFTS NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT BRINGING A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP ON SOUTHWEST FLOW AS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHES. AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY, THE PARENT MID/UPPER LOW STRENGTHENS WITH FAVORABLE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FOR UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREENS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. CLOSED 700MB LOW PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH DEEP LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON NORTHWEST FLOW. PROGGED FROUDE NUMBERS OFF THE GFS SHOW PRIMARILY UNBLOCKED FLOW FROM 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY AND A 925-850MB NORTHWESTERLY JET OF OF 35-45KTS INDICATING PRECIPITATION WILL FALL CLOSE TO THE MOUNTAIN RIDGE CRESTS AND ON LEE SIDE. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT THE VALLEY FLOOR WITH PRIMARILY SNOW ACROSS THE SUMMITS WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE 2000 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Well, as of this morning’s BTV AFD, things continue to look interesting for the weekend – it’s nice when the experts start discussing “potent, vertically stacked lows”, “favorable conditions developing for upslope”, and “several inches of snow”. There’s snow even in our valley forecast, so that certainly a good sign for the higher elevations. .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 246 AM EST TUESDAY...UNSETTLED BUT SEASONAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. POTENT VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER MAKER FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC. ATTENDING WARM FRONT SHIFTS NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT BRINGING A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP ON SOUTHWEST FLOW AS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHES. AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY, THE PARENT MID/UPPER LOW STRENGTHENS WITH FAVORABLE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FOR UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREENS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. CLOSED 700MB LOW PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH DEEP LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON NORTHWEST FLOW. PROGGED FROUDE NUMBERS OFF THE GFS SHOW PRIMARILY UNBLOCKED FLOW FROM 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY AND A 925-850MB NORTHWESTERLY JET OF OF 35-45KTS INDICATING PRECIPITATION WILL FALL CLOSE TO THE MOUNTAIN RIDGE CRESTS AND ON LEE SIDE. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT THE VALLEY FLOOR WITH PRIMARILY SNOW ACROSS THE SUMMITS WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE 2000 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. 6z GFS had a good bit of moisture for the northern Greens with 24-hour totals up to 1.0" of QPF. The EURO was 0.5-0.7" for 24-hour totals. It is only Tuesday but this may have some legs. At the least, I'd feel confident in some snow showers this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Sometimes I wonder if my Davis isn't working right. 41F while all other areas even down to the coast are low 20s to mid 30s. There are a couple stations nearby and close to my elevation that are mid 30s.big inversion this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 big inversion this morning MVL with 23F at 750ft....while the office at 1,500ft had a low of 35F. Even right now, it 41F at MVL while its 51F at the office. Still well inverted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 big inversion this morning Office managed 31.8, but Ekster was 24 (if not colder between obs). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Office managed 31.8, but Ekster was 24 (if not colder between obs).what about in his valley? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 what about in his valley? You don't think his thermometer is already on the lowest point of the property? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 MVL with 23F at 750ft....while the office at 1,500ft had a low of 35F. Even right now, it 41F at MVL while its 51F at the office. Still well inverted. Just saw that MWN was 46 this hour. It was 43 at MWN and 21 at HIE at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 From GYX's AFD: "SURFACE TROUGH WILL SWING IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAYNIGHT ENHANCING SHOWER ACTIVITY....ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINSWHERE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHERTERRAIN BY SATURDAY MORNING" What's considered "higher terrain"? My new place is at 1250 ft, above Jackson NH... is that high enough to get some? Thanks (and yes, a is well deserved) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 From GYX's AFD: "SURFACE TROUGH WILL SWING IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT ENHANCING SHOWER ACTIVITY....ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY SATURDAY MORNING" What's considered "higher terrain"? My new place is at 1250 ft, above Jackson NH... is that high enough to get some? Thanks (and yes, a is well deserved) Well roughly half our forecast area is over 1000 feet elevation. 1500 is probably a fair estimate of what most in our office consider higher terrain, and even then most of north Oxford and Franklin Counties and all of Coos County is above 1500 feet. For our text products, our zones sample only elevations below 2000 feet, and our REC forecast samples elevations over 2500 feet. So that's the long way around to saying higher terrain is somewhere between 1500 and 2500 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Well roughly half our forecast area is over 1000 feet elevation. 1500 is probably a fair estimate of what most in our office consider higher terrain, and even then most of north Oxford and Franklin Counties and all of Coos County is above 1500 feet. For our text products, our zones sample only elevations below 2000 feet, and our REC forecast samples elevations over 2500 feet. So that's the long way around to saying higher terrain is somewhere between 1500 and 2500 feet. That's a great explanation, THANK YOU! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Well roughly half our forecast area is over 1000 feet elevation. 1500 is probably a fair estimate of what most in our office consider higher terrain, and even then most of north Oxford and Franklin Counties and all of Coos County is above 1500 feet. For our text products, our zones sample only elevations below 2000 feet, and our REC forecast samples elevations over 2500 feet. So that's the long way around to saying higher terrain is somewhere between 1500 and 2500 feet. Whenever I hear that language I'm always thinking at least 1,500ft. Question on your zones...I always assumed zones just blended all grid-points in the county, but it leaves out anything above 2,000ft? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Whenever I hear that language I'm always thinking at least 1,500ft. Question on your zones...I always assumed zones just blended all grid-points in the county, but it leaves out anything above 2,000ft? Correct. The zone forecast (ZFP) is an average of the zone. Most zones are whole counties, but counties can be split into zones (see why we call it that?) to highlight significant local effects. Like coastal zones versus interior, or the much higher terrain western Hillsborough County, NH versus the lower eastern part. So our forecast averages all the grid points of the zone to produce the ZFP text wording (as opposed to the point and click which is just the individual grid point). But we can control how much of the zone to look at. So in order to keep MWN from skewing southern Coos zone forecasts, we only sample grid points below 2000 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Office managed 31.8, but Ekster was 24 (if not colder between obs). 22.5°F in the Dirty Lew this am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 18Z NAM, what a sharp gradient for QPF over C/NNE. If this were snow we would be sweating it out with snow amounts. How did the Euro look for us up here? I know it was dry yesterday. NAM gives me over .75" but that sneaky dry air to the NE could suppress everything. Will watch the trend and radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 18Z NAM, what a sharp gradient for QPF over C/NNE. If this were snow we would be sweating it out with snow amounts. How did the Euro look for us up here? I know it was dry yesterday. NAM gives me over .75" but that sneaky dry air to the NE could suppress everything. Will watch the trend and radar..50" around MHT-CON. Closer to 0.25" LEB-LCI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 .50" around MHT-CON. Closer to 0.25" LEB-LCI. Thanks Brian. By the way on my FB page this popped up. Says 2 years ago. Don't know if it is accurate to the day since I don't keep records.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted November 10, 2015 Author Share Posted November 10, 2015 Thanks Brian. By the way on my FB page this popped up. Says 2 years ago. Don't know if it is accurate to the day since I don't keep records.... If only there was some sort of timestamp on the image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Afternoon update from BTV – mentioning a fairly low snow level at 1,000’ and “very good upslope snowfall potential”. .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 348 PM EST TUESDAY...A BRIEF RETURN TO SEASONABLE NOVEMBER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A WELL DEVELOPED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING JUST NORTH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY ON FRIDAY WITH EXCELLENT DYNAMICS TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANT ESPECIALLY IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER 30-40KTS OF LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH GUSTS SLIGHTLY HIGHER. THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOMEWHAT SLOWLY EASTWARD AND THE THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT WIND WILL DECREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS IT DRIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL 700 MB TROUGH WILL CROSS THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST. WITH GOOD MOISTURE STILL OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY ANTICIPATE VERY GOOD UPSLOPE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY UNDER A 530 DAM 1000-500MB THICKNESS. GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS UNBLOCKED FLOW SO THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF SNOWFALL SHOULD FALL IN THE HIGH PEAKS REGION OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND ALONG THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. CURRENT THINKING IS THE MOST ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000FT SHOULD LIKELY SEE SNOW WITH THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SEEING MOSTLY A RAIN/SNOW MIX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Thanks Brian. By the way on my FB page this popped up. Says 2 years ago. Don't know if it is accurate to the day since I don't keep records.... Well is your camera time stamp accurate? If so, then its accurate, haha...it says November 10, 2013 on the image. Edit: I see Eek has that comment covered, haha. Should've read the next post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Well is your camera time stamp accurate? If so, then its accurate, haha...it says November 10, 2013 on the image. Edit: I see Eek has that comment covered, haha. Should've read the next post. I'm an idiot. Spent 15 minutes trying to find the Netcam 2013 folder. ...your right, its right on the image....and I read eek's post and it still didn't dawn on me....Duhhhhh.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Not much has changed with respect to the weekend forecast, so I wasn’t planning to post any of this morning’s BTV AFD, but sometimes the BTV forecasters include those comments that give you a bit of insight into their weather preferences, and this was one of those instances: AS THE ATTENDING SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THE REGION, GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND THIS COMBINED WITH DEEP LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE STILL OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE FIRST (OF HOPEFULLY MANY) UPSLOPE EVENT OF THE SEASON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Rain just about over except another line of light showers in VT. .82" over performer! Was expecting about .25" Dendrite and eek probably got a bit more as that batch to my SE is almost sitting there. Would have been a nice bust if this had been snow. Also looked like the QPF made it further NE than forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 12z GFS still has a pretty decent high elevation snow event, with potential for 6" at the summits. Looks like tomorrow night will see the most concentrated area of orographic precipitation. And this is 24-hour QPF with H85 temperatures below 0C. Snow levels stay up high till the tail end though, with maybe 0.15" left once the snow levels drop below 2,000ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.