J.Spin Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 Passing along the latest snow thoughts from this morning’s BTV AFD: AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 422 AM EST FRI NOV 6 2015 .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... SATURDAY WILL SEE MORE CLOUDS AND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG UPPER JET WILL AID IN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY AROUND HIGHER TERRAIN PROVIDING OROGRAPHIC LIFT. DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN ANY RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT. FROUDE NUMBER SHOW BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE OVER UPSLOPE FAVORED PORTIONS OF NORTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPS TRENDING COLDER AND MORE SEASONABLE WITH MAX TEMPS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...AND LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 Passing along the latest snow thoughts from this morning’s BTV AFD: AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 422 AM EST FRI NOV 6 2015 .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... SATURDAY WILL SEE MORE CLOUDS AND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG UPPER JET WILL AID IN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY AROUND HIGHER TERRAIN PROVIDING OROGRAPHIC LIFT. DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN ANY RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT. FROUDE NUMBER SHOW BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE OVER UPSLOPE FAVORED PORTIONS OF NORTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPS TRENDING COLDER AND MORE SEASONABLE WITH MAX TEMPS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...AND LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. Sadly though, I think we're going to be hampered by limited duration of saturated atmospheric conditions and still really warm/wet ground. I suspect we'll see some brief showers that don't accumulate to much. Though, i'm liking what I'm seeing in the 10 day range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 Sadly though, I think we're going to be hampered by limited duration of saturated atmospheric conditions and still really warm/wet ground. I suspect we'll see some brief showers that don't accumulate to much. Though, i'm liking what I'm seeing in the 10 day range. Agreed, tomorrow night’s event just doesn’t seem that potent with respect to moisture, but there are definitely signs of more to watch going forward. There could be another similar event next weekend, and then it might get even more interesting soon after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 71.8F...a new Novie high for my station. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 71.8F...a new Novie high for my station. MVL hit 75F...lol that's like August climo. Even hit 70F at 1,500ft. Posted this in the Banter thread, but will share here too. The winds at at the ski area are insane right now. Gusting to 50-55mph even at parking lot elevation. Summit right now is sustained at 54mph, gusting to 73. These are some photos from a co-worker of the dust storms rolling through the woods. You can see dust and dirt blowing down the ski trails from even like a mile away, like you can sometimes see in January but with snow. These huge dust swirls moving through the mountain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 New England haboob! At 3 PM, every place in the region was within a few degrees of 70 except MWN (and Mansfield, of course, but GYX doesn't list that) and points AUG and north, where 50s still reign. Even BML has touched 70; not sure that air will slide east along Route 2 as far as my place. Saw a bright spot to the south horizon last hour, otherwise gray with light winds all day, though the morning's fog has dissipated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 MWN reached 48 yesterday, just 4 off the monthly record of 52 set in 1982. To keep the discussion going of toaster bath early seasons on Mansfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 MWN reached 48 yesterday, just 4 off the monthly record of 52 set in 1982. To keep the discussion going of toaster bath early seasons on Mansfield. lol not a fan of the amount of times 1982 has shown up in records lately. Just a brutal start to winter that year region wide. I think Dendrite said the max snow depth at CON in December 1982 was 1"? Some atrociously low snowfall and snow depth stats from that season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 lol not a fan of the amount of times 1982 has shown up in records lately. Just a brutal start to winter that year region wide. I think Dendrite said the max snow depth at CON in December 1982 was 1"? Some atrociously low snowfall and snow depth stats from that season. You are correct. Max winter depth was two days of 10 and 11" in mid February after a couple > 6" snow storms that week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 You are correct. Max winter depth was two days of 10 and 11" in mid February after a couple > 6" snow storms that week. The crazy thing to me about that winter, is that somehow the MMNV1 Co-Op still recorded 201.4" of snow. To put that value in perspective, notice that none of the past 6 winters have exceeded 200". So that winter of 1982-1983 would be listed above any of the past 6 winters in terms of raw snowfall, which I have trouble grasping. When you think of the character of the past 6 winters, note that the Mansfield Co-Op is in like a 1985-1991 type funk of not being able to exceed 200". I have a feeling the folks in SNE would beg to differ about the difference between the 80s and these past few winters, haha. Again, just amazing that a winter that looks like this can have more cummulative snowfall than any of the past 6 seasons: Personally, I feel fairly confident that the reason for that is that the Co-Op collection method can't sample light fluffy snow very well at all due to wind blowing those dendrites over the top of the 8-inch diameter bucket. Meanwhile, it samples heavy wet snowfall very well. So in that manner, it actually makes crappy winters look better than they were because it is able to better account for the snow. Wet heavy flakes actually find their way into the can. That's why 2010-2011 was only 180" at the Co_Op but I personally cleared the snow board that winter and had around 330". We had over 150" in town, and Underhill had 220" (there's absolutely no way a town at 800ft got 40" more than the mountain right next to it at 4,000ft). That winter to me is one of the Co_Ops worst snowfall representation. And it makes it so a winter like 82-83 is better than 2010-2011 when looking at raw snowfall data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 The crazy thing to me about that winter, is that somehow the MMNV1 Co-Op still recorded 201.4" of snow. To put that value in perspective, notice that none of the past 6 winters have exceeded 200". So that winter of 1982-1983 would be listed above any of the past 6 winters in terms of raw snowfall, which I have trouble grasping. When you think of the character of the past 6 winters, note that the Mansfield Co-Op is in like a 1985-1991 type funk of not being able to exceed 200". I have a feeling the folks in SNE would beg to differ about the difference between the 80s and these past few winters, haha. Again, just amazing that a winter that looks like this can have more cummulative snowfall than any of the past 6 seasons: plot.png Interesting too when you see MWN only had 188.6" that winter. Followed by 379.7" in 1983-1984 by the way. MWN was 30+ below normal for December alone though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 The crazy thing to me about that winter, is that somehow the MMNV1 Co-Op still recorded 201.4" of snow. To put that value in perspective, notice that none of the past 6 winters have exceeded 200". So that winter of 1982-1983 would be listed above any of the past 6 winters in terms of raw snowfall, which I have trouble grasping. When you think of the character of the past 6 winters, note that the Mansfield Co-Op is in like a 1985-1991 type funk of not being able to exceed 200". I have a feeling the folks in SNE would beg to differ about the difference between the 80s and these past few winters, haha. Again, just amazing that a winter that looks like this can have more cummulative snowfall than any of the past 6 seasons: plot.png and looking at that graph it looked like they had almost no snow at the stake on 12/29? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 and looking at that graph it looked like they had almost no snow at the stake on 12/29? Yes, 0" of snow depth on 12/31. You know its dire in the northeast if 4,000ft on one of the snowiest mountains in New England has no snow on the ground on New Years Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 Interesting too when you see MWN only had 188.6" that winter. Followed by 379.7" in 1983-1984 by the way. MWN was 30+ below normal for December alone though. Mansfield only had an 8" difference between the two winters. Shows how reliable that snowfall data is. The temperature, rainfall, and snow depth data is good...the snow fall data is not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 lol not a fan of the amount of times 1982 has shown up in records lately. . Hmm this is akin to the no coastals train of thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 Hmm this is akin to the no coastals train of thought. C'mon give me a littttttttle bit more credit, lol. You know if we were running neck and neck with Oct/Nov records from cold/snowy winters it would be getting some mention. I don't think that winter is going to repeat itself, because no other winter has ever come close to that type of abortion by the end of December, but its at least interesting that 1982 had similar ridiculous temperatures this time of year (and is also up there on the list of strong Ninos). That's a fact, not completely like the voodoo of the storm track train of thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 Temps around freezing in the higher elevations, so probably some snowflakes flying. Models have some light precip around the Spine tonight. I was out walking the dog and noticed it started raining, so checked radar. Looked promising for a moment but fell apart quickly. Just a flare-up as some moisture pushed over the mountains. Maybe we can get something else going to dust the peaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 C'mon give me a littttttttle bit more credit, lol. You know if we were running neck and neck with Oct/Nov records from cold/snowy winters it would be getting some mention. I don't think that winter is going to repeat itself, because no other winter has ever come close to that type of abortion by the end of December, but its at least interesting that 1982 had similar ridiculous temperatures this time of year (and is also up there on the list of strong Ninos). That's a fact, not completely like the voodoo of the storm track train of thought. its behind 2003 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 its behind 2003 That discussion made me think about how 1982-1983 was a back-loaded winter too...0" on 12/31/82 and 80" of depth in mid-April. We won't be anywhere near that bad of a start, but there are things that are similar to that winter, just in a much more toned down version. Think warm start, back-loaded winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 Next system.......18Z NAM has me at about .80" and 18Z GFS less than a .10". Don't know what the Euro has for QPF but I'm guessing its pretty dry?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 Next system.......18Z NAM has me at about .80" and 18Z GFS less than a .10". Don't know what the Euro has for QPF but I'm guessing its pretty dry?? Euro is very dry for all in New England....trace to 0.2". There is around 0.4" touching Cape Cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Temps around freezing in the higher elevations, so probably some snowflakes flying. Models have some light precip around the Spine tonight. I was out walking the dog and noticed it started raining, so checked radar. Looked promising for a moment but fell apart quickly. Just a flare-up as some moisture pushed over the mountains. Maybe we can get something else going to dust the peaks. I saw that the back deck got wet last night, but overall the precipitation didn’t quite hit 0.01”, so it was just a trace here at the house. It did look like the peaks might have been dusted a bit up high though. The next chance for snow looks like it’s out toward the end of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 I love these 18z GFS cinema showings ... Today's movie features a D 10, if not historic, certainly a histrionic monster storm that drops 30" of synoptic snow on VT followed by almost that much in an epic up-sloping blizzard. Tip posted the above comment in the November thread, but it seemed like it was too cool to pass up posting an image for archival purposes. I know the mountains have been hit by reasonably big stuff in November, but I have to think a storm like the one pictured would be quite impressive if it really brought such substantial snow to the valleys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Tip posted the above comment in the November thread, but it seemed like it was too cool to pass up posting an image for archival purposes. I know the mountains have been hit by reasonably big stuff in November, but I have to think a storm like the one pictured would be quite impressive if it really brought such substantial snow to the valleys. I approve of this run: Still snowing for this: Apparently it is not l-l-l-l-l-locked in yet; we disapprove of the 6Z progressive run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Apparently it is not l-l-l-l-l-locked in yet; we disapprove of the 6Z progressive run Well, I guess there can’t be a massive November snowstorm in every model run. In any event, there’s still snow even in the latest run as you showed, and some of it moves into the higher elevations by the end of the week. The Mansfield point forecast has plenty of periods with potential coming up with the passage of that closed upper level low shown in the models: Thursday Night Rain before 5am, then rain and snow. Low around 34. Very windy, with a south wind 41 to 49 mph becoming west after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 65 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Friday Snow showers, possibly mixed with rain before 7am, then a chance of rain showers between 7am and 4pm, then a chance of rain and snow showers after 4pm. High near 38. Very windy, with a west wind 39 to 43 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Friday Night A 50 percent chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 28. Very windy, with a west wind 32 to 41 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph. Saturday A 50 percent chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 33. Windy, with a west wind 26 to 33 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Saturday Night A 40 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. Blustery, with a northwest wind 20 to 23 mph. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 640 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015 .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS CLOSED UPPER LOW MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. AS TEMPERATURES COOL...THE CHANCES FOR SOME SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUES ON SATURDAY AS WE REMAIN UNDER INFLUENCE OF UPPER LOW...WHICH WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY SLOWLY EASTWARD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 'Tis the season when every other GFS run has a blizzard in truncation land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 'Tis the season when every other GFS run has a blizzard in truncation land. And the SREFs give us 50 inch dreams Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 And the SREFs give us 50 inch dreams Hey they underwent a major upgrade this fall. I'm not sure much changes though, maybe a smoother average since they added members. But we lost the NMM, in favor of more NMMB and ARW members (13 each). Gut feeling is they will still be too warm and have too much QPF, but who knows. Should be a nice upgrade for convection though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Well, I guess there can’t be a massive November snowstorm in every model run. In any event, there’s still snow even in the latest run as you showed, and some of it moves into the higher elevations by the end of the week. The Mansfield point forecast has plenty of periods with potential coming up with the passage of that closed upper level low shown in the models: Thursday Night Rain before 5am, then rain and snow. Low around 34. Very windy, with a south wind 41 to 49 mph becoming west after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 65 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Friday Snow showers, possibly mixed with rain before 7am, then a chance of rain showers between 7am and 4pm, then a chance of rain and snow showers after 4pm. High near 38. Very windy, with a west wind 39 to 43 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Friday Night A 50 percent chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 28. Very windy, with a west wind 32 to 41 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph. Saturday A 50 percent chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 33. Windy, with a west wind 26 to 33 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Saturday Night A 40 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. Blustery, with a northwest wind 20 to 23 mph. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 640 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015 .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS CLOSED UPPER LOW MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. AS TEMPERATURES COOL...THE CHANCES FOR SOME SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUES ON SATURDAY AS WE REMAIN UNDER INFLUENCE OF UPPER LOW...WHICH WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY SLOWLY EASTWARD. Yea, I think the upslope signal is looking pretty interesting for this weekend. Skis are ready (they are always ready). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Yea, I think the upslope signal is looking pretty interesting for this weekend. Skis are ready (they are always ready). Yes... the 6z GFS had a nice little clipper coupled with upslope backside flow. 24-hour precipitation with all sub-freezing column in the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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