dryslot Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 Ha, even my hill looks to have been blasted. Even the rock could not escape that one, No school up here for a week as i remember it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 That storm, Has been my avatar that i have used in winter over the last several seasons, Klew recorded 36" over that period Their biggest ever, easily. Also biggest on record for many locations from Pinkham thru central Maine to BGR. Long Falls Dam recorded 56", still Maine's greatest snowstorm on record. At the time it was also PWM's biggest, since topped by a strange little (in areal extent) event in Jan 1979 and then hammered by over 4" in Feb 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 J.Spin (and others): I've found essentially zero useful correlation between Novie snow and season snow. For your 9 seasons: Year...Nov.....Season 2006.....0.0".....95.3" 2007.....1.3"....142.3" Top snow winter of my 17 here. 2008.....3.5"...101.4" 2009.....3.4".....64.8" 2010.....1.5"...100.5" 2011...11.2".....68.0" 2012.....2.5".....90.4" 2013.....1.6"...101.3 2014...17.0"...112.8" Avg......4.7".....97.4" My 17-yr avg is 89.4", median 90.4". Med.....2.5"....100.5" Thanks Tamarack, a quick visual inspection of my data didn’t seem to show anything in that regard either, but I decided to do a correlation analysis for November snowfall vs. season snowfall just to see: Interestingly, there is a slight positive correlation as indicated by the Pearson coefficient of 0.18 (where 0 is no correlation and 1 is a perfect correlation). The p-value for that association is 0.64 though, so there’s really no statistical significance based on my small data set. Although I don’t think it means anything at this point, it is interesting that that trend pops up, and in theory the y-intercept (~150 inches) would give one a potential value for seasonal snowfall if November was snowless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 That storm, Has been my avatar that i have used in winter over the last several seasons, Klew recorded 36" over that period Feb69.jpg That's one of the largest (if not the largest) extents of 30"+ amounts (red shading) I've seen on those NESIS maps that get posted of storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 That's one of the largest (if not the largest) extents of 30"+ amounts (red shading) I've seen on those NESIS maps that get posted of storms. That LP meandered in the GOM for days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 Another decent inversion this morning. Either side of 32F in the CON area and mid 40s above 1kft. Dipped to 39.8F here in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 That's one of the largest (if not the largest) extents of 30"+ amounts (red shading) I've seen on those NESIS maps that get posted of storms. I don't think there any NESIS storms that are even close as far as 30+ coverage over a contiguous geographic area. 1888 would be similar, but obviously not a NESIS map for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 Another decent inversion this morning. Either side of 32F in the CON area and mid 40s above 1kft. Dipped to 39.8F here in between. Similar here. 32F yesterday, 35F this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 Another decent inversion this morning. Either side of 32F in the CON area and mid 40s above 1kft. Dipped to 39.8F here in between. We get some whopper inversions in November...I'll have to look back but my favorite was maybe November 2011 when we had snow cover on the ground in the valley for 3 days later than up at 1,500-2,000ft because of the inversion. We were locked in the upper 20s to mid 30s at 750ft while it was close to 50F at times at 1,500ft. And that persisted for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 We get some whopper inversions in November...I'll have to look back but my favorite was maybe November 2011 when we had snow cover on the ground in the valley for 3 days later than up at 1,500-2,000ft because of the inversion. We were locked in the upper 20s to mid 30s at 750ft while it was close to 50F at times at 1,500ft. And that persisted for days. Yup it was the end of November 2011 after that Thanksgiving snowstorm. The higher elevations got absolutely torched while the surface cold (likely fed back from the snow cover) pooled in the valley bottom. For a couple days I got to leave the snowless 1,500ft elevations at the office and drive down to home at 750ft which was still fully covered by over a half a foot. You can see in this picture the terrain closest to me is brown (above 1,300ft) while out in the valley bottom and RT 100 corridor you can see the fields are all full-covered and white. MVL ASOS is out in those fields. Such a bizarre set-up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 October snow totals from CoCoRAHS... will be interesting to see how long we wait before adding to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 I'd highly suggest anyone with an interesting in meso-scale snowfall in the Greens to read this: http://www.weather.gov/media/erh/ta2015_05.pdf Congrats to Nittany for a published paper on the Froude Number and thanks for furthering the science up here of meso-scale upslope precipitation. I know a lot of folks on here joke about "who cares?" because its so localized, but these are actually decently populated areas (impacting VT's most populated county) and have the busiest stretch of roadway in the state running right through it (MPV to BTV on I-89). This has huge implications as anyone who has sat stuck on I-89 while squalls of 2-3"/hr roll through (and 50mph winds blast the Bolton Flats) knows that it can come out of nowhere. Its definitely a much bigger deal in BTV's CWA than GYX's though they probably experience similar conditions across their northern locations. These two graphics pretty much show the general objective. Figuring out the conditions that lead to each type of orographic snowfall and how to forecast it. Topographic_map.jpg Types_of_Orographics.jpg Nittany? that guy doesn't even like snow in all seriousness though, congratulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 31.6°F this am with a solid frost, The end of the 12z Euro run was interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 31.6°F this am with a solid frost, The end of the 12z Euro run was interesting lol yeah it was. I also noticed the 12z EURO had some light upslope precipitation on Saturday night and Sunday that looked like it could bring some flakes here. Nothing exciting but its all we got right now for winter weather chances. BTV mentioned it in the AFD: SATURDAY NIGHT, THE TRAILING UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH EXPECTING PRECIP TO BE OROGRAPHIC IN NATURE AND TIED TO THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE DACKS AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN GREENS. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST PTYPE WOULD BE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OVER THE MID-ELEVATIONS WITH ALL SNOW ON THE SUMMITS. A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM 1500FT UPWARDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 lol yeah it was. I also noticed the 12z EURO had some light upslope precipitation on Saturday night and Sunday that looked like it could bring some flakes here. Nothing exciting but its all we got right now for winter weather chances. BTV mentioned it in the AFD: SATURDAY NIGHT, THE TRAILING UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH EXPECTING PRECIP TO BE OROGRAPHIC IN NATURE AND TIED TO THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE DACKS AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN GREENS. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST PTYPE WOULD BE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OVER THE MID-ELEVATIONS WITH ALL SNOW ON THE SUMMITS. A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM 1500FT UPWARDS. That would be good for you guys to get some flakes, Euro ensembles have next weekends event as well, Something to watch anyways Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 Here we go again... Newbury 1555ft 55F Gilford 1348ft 50F Tilton 866ft 48F Here 614ft 44F Suncook 357ft 39F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 Currently 60F at BTV and 40F at MPV, 38F at St. J Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 I'd highly suggest anyone with an interesting in meso-scale snowfall in the Greens to read this: http://www.weather.gov/media/erh/ta2015_05.pdf Congrats to Nittany for a published paper on the Froude Number and thanks for furthering the science up here of meso-scale upslope precipitation. I know a lot of folks on here joke about "who cares?" because its so localized, but these are actually decently populated areas (impacting VT's most populated county) and have the busiest stretch of roadway in the state running right through it (MPV to BTV on I-89). This has huge implications as anyone who has sat stuck on I-89 while squalls of 2-3"/hr roll through (and 50mph winds blast the Bolton Flats) knows that it can come out of nowhere. Its definitely a much bigger deal in BTV's CWA than GYX's though they probably experience similar conditions across their northern locations. These two graphics pretty much show the general objective. Figuring out the conditions that lead to each type of orographic snowfall and how to forecast it. Topographic_map.jpg Types_of_Orographics.jpg Great read. Good lord its warm right now. I could easily have worn shorts and a t-shirt in BTV this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 Here we go again... Newbury 1555ft 55F Gilford 1348ft 50F Tilton 866ft 48F Here 614ft 44F Suncook 357ft 39F I'm in on the cold side this morning. Newbury 1555' 57F Gilford 1348' 53F Tilton 866' 42F Northfield 614' 35.5F Suncook 357' 32.5F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 Great read. Good lord its warm right now. I could easily have worn shorts and a t-shirt in BTV this week. I've worn shorts and a polo shirt the past couple days...can't get out of the summer garb. Hard to get in the mood to get ready for the ski season when you can wear shorts at 1,500ft in Northern VT in November. 10:45am and its 64F off a low of 53F in the ski area base. Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 October snow totals from CoCoRAHS... will be interesting to see how long we wait before adding to this. Initially I was thinking we weren’t going to get anything for the entire month of November based on some of the longer-range discussion in the sub-forum, but it’s starting to feel like that might not be the only option. We may not move into a pattern that’s going to start the winter snowpack in the valleys, but we might get some chances. There’s some potential this weekend, certainly at elevation with temperatures in the 20s F, and then there seems to be more potential mid-month and beyond. Once you get to the second half of November and into December, even normal temperatures start to mean snow chances depending on elevation, and the possibilities just expand the later it gets. Putting that November snowfall plot together the other day made me realize that we’ve only been shut out of snow for the month once (2006-2007) since I’ve been keeping records, although 2009-2010 was close. Either way it goes though seems pretty sweet if the alternative is gorgeous days like today. It’s really amazing out there (at least here in Burlington) – very comfortable autumn day without any of that bite of deepening cold that can sometimes come with November weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 Initially I was thinking we weren’t going to get anything for the entire month of November based on some of the longer-range discussion in the sub-forum, but it’s starting to feel like that might not be the only option. We may not move into a pattern that’s going to start the winter snowpack in the valleys, but we might get some chances. There’s some potential this weekend, certainly at elevation with temperatures in the 20s F, and then there seems to be more potential mid-month and beyond. Once you get to the second half of November and into December, even normal temperatures start to mean snow chances depending on elevation, and the possibilities just expand the later it gets. Putting that November snowfall plot together the other day made me realize that we’ve only been shut out of snow for the month once (2006-2007) since I’ve been keeping records, although 2009-2010 was close. Either way it goes though seems pretty sweet if the alternative is gorgeous days like today. It’s really amazing out there (at least here in Burlington) – very comfortable autumn day without any of that bite of deepening cold that can sometimes come with November weather. Yeah I'd never bet on "no" snow here in November, though it can happen. Once we get later in the month it isn't that hard to get 1-3" type stuff at the least from cold air advection or something. You can have an absolute torch of a month but all it has to do is get sufficiently cold for a couple days to bring some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 I'd highly suggest anyone with an interesting in meso-scale snowfall in the Greens to read this: http://www.weather.gov/media/erh/ta2015_05.pdf Congrats to Nittany for a published paper on the Froude Number and thanks for furthering the science up here of meso-scale upslope precipitation. I know a lot of folks on here joke about "who cares?" because its so localized, but these are actually decently populated areas (impacting VT's most populated county) and have the busiest stretch of roadway in the state running right through it (MPV to BTV on I-89). This has huge implications as anyone who has sat stuck on I-89 while squalls of 2-3"/hr roll through (and 50mph winds blast the Bolton Flats) knows that it can come out of nowhere. Its definitely a much bigger deal in BTV's CWA than GYX's though they probably experience similar conditions across their northern locations. These two graphics pretty much show the general objective. Figuring out the conditions that lead to each type of orographic snowfall and how to forecast it. Topographic_map.jpg Types_of_Orographics.jpg It's definitely more high impact given the major thoroughfare that crosses the orographic boundary, that's for sure. I would still say, it's one of the most poorly forecast things in our CWA though. If we can improve our forecast in any way I'm all for it. When the snowmobile crowd all flock to John's site to get the weather, we know we have a problem on our hands. If we ever do an adopt a county program at this office, I'm calling dibs on Coos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 I'm in on the cold side this morning. Newbury 1555' 57F Gilford 1348' 53F Tilton 866' 42F Northfield 614' 35.5F Suncook 357' 32.5F Low 30s with dense fog this morning. Had 58/28 with solid frost yesterday. My avg temp for 11/5 is 47/28. Nov 1-4 avg is +6, and I expect today and tomorrow to bump that to near +8. Given the lack of modeled BN temps in the near future, we should hit mid-Nov at +4 or milder, and would need some early winter in force to avoid an AN finish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 Yeah I'd never bet on "no" snow here in November, though it can happen. Once we get later in the month it isn't that hard to get 1-3" type stuff at the least from cold air advection or something. You can have an absolute torch of a month but all it has to do is get sufficiently cold for a couple days to bring some snow. Yea, I mean it is still the 4th. Wait 10 days and then lets see what the month is starting to look like. It is just hard to not have some decent snow at elevation in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 I also noticed the 12z EURO had some light upslope precipitation on Saturday night and Sunday that looked like it could bring some flakes here. Nothing exciting but its all we got right now for winter weather chances. BTV mentioned it in the AFD: SATURDAY NIGHT, THE TRAILING UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH EXPECTING PRECIP TO BE OROGRAPHIC IN NATURE AND TIED TO THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE DACKS AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN GREENS. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST PTYPE WOULD BE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OVER THE MID-ELEVATIONS WITH ALL SNOW ON THE SUMMITS. A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM 1500FT UPWARDS. Yeah, it’s looked like the possibility for something along those lines for a while. I really looks like it’s just an issue of minimal moisture around, but it’s nice to know that the Greens give you potential for at least something will essentially any cold front that comes through this time of year. The amount of moisture has been up and down in the various runs of the GFS and ECMWF, but both were on board with something as of this morning’s runs for that overnight Saturday period – GFS on the left and ECMWF on the right The latest runs as of midday today seem less thrilled about the amount of moisture/precipitation, but it certainly seems like there’s potential for some flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 Yea, I mean it is still the 4th. Wait 10 days and then lets see what the month is starting to look like. It is just hard to not have some decent snow at elevation in November. Not much but I bet the higher elevations of the Spine get dusted this weekend...only a coating to 2" on the ridges, but I bet the secondary surge of cold air advection on Saturday night with the trough axis moving through will fire up some orographic snow showers. We'll be firing up the snow guns this weekend, even though next week looks mild, its time to at least blow out the mice and attempt to start building something up high. But the snowmaking teams will be out on the hill waiting for the temp to drop on Saturday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 Also, I'm seeing 60F right now on the MMNV1 Meso-west page... the old record high today was 55F so its pretty much destroyed today's record high. If its legit, it would be the third latest occurrence for that temperature since 1954 when records started. Latest recordings of a 60F temperature in the autumn season. 1) December 10, 1966 2) November 18, 1958 3) November 5, 2015 4) November 3, 1982 5) October 27, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 68.1/35.5 today. That's the warmest temp I've recorded here this late in the season since moving here. If we can get some afternoon sun tomorrow look out. Looks like quite a warm night tonight (50s). CON record low min is 60F so that should be safe. That's actually a tie for the monthly record in threadex so it's not a very susceptible record. CON hit 74F today...only 1F away from tying the record high in 1948. It's hard to believe, but the record low for tomorrow is 9F. That feels like an eternity away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 68.1/35.5 today. That's the warmest temp I've recorded here this late in the season since moving here. If we can get some afternoon sun tomorrow look out. Looks like quite a warm night tonight (50s). CON record low min is 60F so that should be safe. That's actually a tie for the monthly record in threadex so it's not a very susceptible record. CON hit 74F today...only 1F away from tying the record high in 1948. It's hard to believe, but the record low for tomorrow is 9F. That feels like an eternity away. 71.7F!! Musings....All the oaks are rust now and with a brisk SW wind tomorrow should have the oak canopy really shed their leaves. Seems (and probably is) very late this year. Hard to believe I have used almost no wood yet. I have a SW facing sun room which heats the house almost too warm. By the time it cools down its early morning. An hour's worth of heat and the house is good to go for another day. People must be saving a ton on fuel expense. Warm weather and $1.91 per gallon for fuel is a great combo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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