NNE Winter: just can't compete with Maple Hollow.

[J.Spin]

I’m cross-posting some material here in the NNE thread that I posted in the Winter of 15-16 thread.  It stems from that conversation, but is better in here in terms of interest, relevance, and archiving.

 

It will need to be 1997-'98 because even that season was perilously close to a blockbuster year.

 

I want that year so bad, haha.

 

Mt Mansfield with a 132" snow depth and like 9" of QPF per month. Looks like some rainers but lots of 6"+ storms so I'd take in a heartbeat.

 

The QPF though is sick...like 20" worth in Dec/January. Feb was drier with only 5-6" but then March was up there again.

 

I’ve seen a lot people talking about 1997-1998 (presumably because it was a strong El Niño?), but it sure looks like a fine winter based on the Mansfield snow depth plot:

 

 

As you can see from the plot, there was that decent October event, and then it was essentially off to the races through November and December with regard to the snowpack.  The permanent winter snowpack started just a few days from now, and then just look at the slope of that increase through the holidays.

 

On that note, I added in the 2014-2015 Mansfield snowpack data to update the table I showed last year at this time - the start of last year’s winter snowpack was 11/7, so one day earlier than the previous season.  The mean snowpack start date sits at 11/15 now, so it’s actually gotten a day earlier with the help of these last two seasons.  It doesn’t look like this season holds much chance of an early start like that based on the forecast.

[tamarack]

Wait, are we still talking about deer?

 

Because I'm pretty sure that's my exact reasoning for never applying to CAR.

 

 

Then you'll never have the pleasure of driving between CAR and PQI during a ground blizzard, though I suspect you saw plenty in DVN.  During the poorest winter (1979-80) of my 10 in Ft. Kent, such a snow/wind event blocked Route 1 a couple miles north of downtown PQI on a Saturday, and the following Monday evening traffic was still being diverted thru an adjacent potato field while the massive windpacked drifts were being cleared from the highway by payloaders.

[Ginx snewx]

I’m cross-posting some material here in the NNE thread that I posted in the Winter of 15-16 thread. It stems from that conversation, but is better in here in terms of interest, relevance, and archiving.wow losing half the snowpack of 114 in a couple of days the third week of March is impressive

I’ve seen a lot people talking about 1997-1998 (presumably because it was a strong El Niño?), but it sure looks like a fine winter based on the Mansfield snow depth plot:

As you can see from the plot, there was that decent October event, and then it was essentially off to the races through November and December with regard to the snowpack. The permanent winter snowpack started just a few days from now, and then just look at the slope of that increase through the holidays.

On that note, I added in the 2014-2015 Mansfield snowpack data to update the table I showed last year at this time - the start of last year’s winter snowpack was 11/7, so one day earlier than the previous season. The mean snowpack start date sits at 11/15 now, so it’s actually gotten a day earlier with the help of these last two seasons. It doesn’t look like this season holds much chance of an early start like that based on the forecast.

[powderfreak]

 

wow losing half the snowpack of 114 in a couple of days the third week of March is impressive

 

 

 

I'm not sure what Ginxy did to the quote, but I think that is what he wrote, not JSpin...

 

Looking at the data, got a rare +31F departure there at the end of March...nice end of the month torch.  I'd be fine with that, the heavy snow got pretty much all the way through March before the pattern collapsed.  Looks like the month would've been below normal except for the final 5 days of the month, with four days of +20F< departures that did quite a number of the monthly departure.

 

 

Man what a QPF pants-tent though that winter was.  No MoneyPitMike worries here.

 

Looks at this QPF by month...yeah there were rain events but this is the precipitation that brings the COOP over 330" of snow even with their significant under-catch.  I'd imagine there was some flooding at the end of March with that torch as the snowpack had to have some very significant snow-water values given the winter QPF.

 

December: 8.91"

January: 9.46"

February: 5.54"

March: 7.52"

 

[Lava Rock]

Decent shallow inversion this morning. Low was ~40F here and at Salisbury (~600-650ft), but deeper in the river valleys in was low to mid 30s (35F winni river, 31F suncook river, 32F KCON). Higher up Gunstock and Newbury were mid-upper 40s. So there was a good 15F inversion over about 1kft.

I've seen as much as 10f difference in our location at 730 and the valley below at 350 and only a mile away. Pretty impressive.

[dryslot]

Best population control there is. I've got scores of them in my backyard every morning if Dryslot wants to swing by. Large rodents that taste delicious.

 

What are the season dates in VT?    

[dryslot]

wildlife management prevents population crash.

 

This, Spoke with two wardens tonight at our snowmobile club meeting and Deer management came up, It seems to be becoming a big problem in some areas with people feeding deer, Its creating more car deer accidents as well as property damage for neighbors as well, He told us a law was just passed that allows the Maine Warden Service to be able to summons a resident for feeding deer if its creating a dangerous situation or damage to neighboring properties beside the fact your not helping the animal in the long run over the winter by feeding them

[OceanStWx]

This, Spoke with two wardens tonight at our snowmobile club meeting and Deer management came up, It seems to be becoming a big problem in some areas with people feeding deer, Its creating more car deer accidents as well as property damage for neighbors as well, He told us a law was just passed that allows the Maine Warden Service to be able to summons a resident for feeding deer if its creating a dangerous situation or damage to neighboring properties beside the fact your not helping the animal in the long run over the winter by feeding them

 

I'm guessing that new law would be a nice avenue to start issuing warnings initially to educate the public on the danger.

[OceanStWx]

Decent shallow inversion this morning. Low was ~40F here and at Salisbury (~600-650ft), but deeper in the river valleys in was low to mid 30s (35F winni river, 31F suncook river, 32F KCON). Higher up Gunstock and Newbury were mid-upper 40s. So there was a good 15F inversion over about 1kft.

 

What was your valley temp?

[mreaves]

What are the season dates in VT?

Starts Saturday the 14th and ends the Sunday after Thanksgiving. Hunting on Sunday is allowed.

[dendrite]

Sneaky <32F in the CON area this morning. 34F here so far with the high els up around 40F. The radiators are getting a much colder start over the elevations this month out here.

[dryslot]

I'm guessing that new law would be a nice avenue to start issuing warnings initially to educate the public on the danger.

Yes, That what they had said the would do initially is to hand out warnings if they felt it placed the landowners and general public in danger

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[dryslot]

Starts Saturday the 14th and ends the Sunday after Thanksgiving. Hunting on Sunday is allowed.

Nice, Smaller window but the Sunday hunt is a bonus something that is not allowed here

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[mreaves]

Nice, Smaller window but the Sunday hunt is a bonus something that is not allowed here

Sent from my iPhone

Yeah, my brother in law is actually up in Rangeley this week.  He's been hunting up there for the last 15 years or so.

[J.Spin]

This is another one that stemmed from a post in the Winter of 15-16 thread, but I'm cross-posting here since it's of mostly NNE relevance.

 

All in all though still not a snowy month. I was thinking JSpin and I average 8-12" in November, but that's still just a fraction of what falls the other real winter months.

 

November though is like all or nothing...looking over JSpin's data shows the variability from like 0.0" shutout to 20"+ depending on the flavor of the month.

 

I saw PF’s comments above, so I’ve added the relevant data and some perspectives below.  Indeed November comes in as he said, with a mean of 11.1” and a median of 11.4” from my data set.  Those values are pretty tight, suggesting it’s not some sort of heavily-skewed data, but indeed the volatility is there with an S.D. of 9.1”.

 

 

From what I see in my data, our November snow doesn’t seem to make or break the winter in terms of total snowfall for the season, but if we get one of those Novembers that comes through with little to no snow, that’s not a great sign heading into December.  A November like that means that whatever non-snowy pattern was in place, persisted through the majority of the month.  So, December is likely starting off on that note, and that begins to cut into the more important December snowfall unless the pattern undergoes a change.  Indeed there aren’t any blockbuster Decembers following those lowest Novembers in my data set (at least yet); the best is a December with fairly average snowfall in 2010-2011.

 

I certainly don’t find the November snow to be irrelevant around here though.  While October snows are transient (aside from ~10% of seasons on the mountains), November represents a huge step up in significance.  November marks the start of the mountain snowpack about 90% of the time based on the Mansfield data, and in terms of the breadth of available skiing opportunities, November absolutely matters.  I’m not going to pretend that Novembers with several feet of snow are the norm, but a good to great November (such as last November), even if it’s just in the second half of the month, means that you’re at least getting the chance to get into some turns on real snow on a decent amount of moderate or low-angle terrain.  A poor November means that at best, the mountains feature only monotonous strips of manmade white among a sea of stick season brown.  Those two parts of the spectrum are dramatically different experiences, and as I’ve noted before, unlike the back end of the season, there’s no making up for what you don’t get at the front end of the ski season; if the snow doesn’t come, there’s no snowpack below it to fall back on, and you’re simply never going to get those ski days.

 

Even in the mountain valleys, the continuous winter snowpack starts in mid to late November nearly half the time according to my data set.  When it doesn’t start in November, that means you get extra time for yard cleanup and such, but it also means you’re already in the lower half of seasons with regard to that parameter.  I’m sure hunters’ experiences can also vary significantly with respect to how November plays out.

 

So as PF says above, November may not be a snowy month around here on a relative scale, but I’d argue that’s its particular position near the front end of the snow season means that November snows have a dramatic effect on how and when winter life and recreation kick off in the mountains and valleys.

[dryslot]

Yeah, my brother in law is actually up in Rangeley this week. He's been hunting up there for the last 15 years or so.

I hunt the foothills area just to the NW of here, Will be back out there Friday and Saturday, Looks like t-shirt weather on Friday with a chance of showers though

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[dendrite]

Was looking up the old COOP reports for Feb '69 in this area. Absolute monster totals everywhere.

 

Town | Feb 9-10 | Feb 22-28 | Monthly | Interesting Comments

Franklin 1NW | 20.0" | 35.5" | 64.0" | depth 62"

Franklin Falls | 14.0" | 32.0" | 56.5" | depth 56"

Center Harbor | 11.1" | 24.8" | 48.0" | depth 46" "Hard to measure both storms due to wind"

Gilmanton | 16.0" | 30.0" | 57.0" | depth 49"

Lakeport 1 | 14.6" | 35.9" | 65.3" | depth 57"

Lakeport 2 | 15.0" | 36.5" | 65.6"

Plymouth 1E | 19.0" | 38.0" | 69.1" | depth 56"

South Weare | 20.5" | 38.0" | 71.0" | depth 59"

West Rumney | 20.0" | 34.0" | 75.0" | "I regret that due to the great snow depths I cannot get a total measurement"

Wolfeboro | 26.0" | 40.0" | 73.0" | depth 68"

 

[Ginx snewx]

Was looking up the old COOP reports for Feb '69 in this area. Absolute monster totals everywhere.

 

Town | Feb 9-10 | Feb 22-28 | Monthly | Interesting Comments

Franklin 1NW | 20.0" | 35.5" | 64.0" | depth 62"

Franklin Falls | 14.0" | 32.0" | 56.5" | depth 56"

Center Harbor | 11.1" | 24.8" | 48.0" | depth 46" "Hard to measure both storms due to wind"

Gilmanton | 16.0" | 30.0" | 57.0" | depth 49"

Lakeport 1 | 14.6" | 35.9" | 65.3" | depth 57"

Lakeport 2 | 15.0" | 36.5" | 65.6"

Plymouth 1E | 19.0" | 38.0" | 69.1" | depth 56"

South Weare | 20.5" | 38.0" | 71.0" | depth 59"

West Rumney | 20.0" | 34.0" | 75.0" | "I regret that due to the great snow depths I cannot get a total measurement"

Wolfeboro | 26.0" | 40.0" | 73.0" | depth 68"

epic stuff

[CoastalWx]

Was looking up the old COOP reports for Feb '69 in this area. Absolute monster totals everywhere.

 

Town | Feb 9-10 | Feb 22-28 | Monthly | Interesting Comments

Franklin 1NW | 20.0" | 35.5" | 64.0" | depth 62"

Franklin Falls | 14.0" | 32.0" | 56.5" | depth 56"

Center Harbor | 11.1" | 24.8" | 48.0" | depth 46" "Hard to measure both storms due to wind"

Gilmanton | 16.0" | 30.0" | 57.0" | depth 49"

Lakeport 1 | 14.6" | 35.9" | 65.3" | depth 57"

Lakeport 2 | 15.0" | 36.5" | 65.6"

Plymouth 1E | 19.0" | 38.0" | 69.1" | depth 56"

South Weare | 20.5" | 38.0" | 71.0" | depth 59"

West Rumney | 20.0" | 34.0" | 75.0" | "I regret that due to the great snow depths I cannot get a total measurement"

Wolfeboro | 26.0" | 40.0" | 73.0" | depth 68"

 

Center Harbor downslope FTL.

[dendrite]

Center Harbor downslope FTL.

Heh...he had "tough to measure" for almost every storm whereas some of the other sites mentioned "snow sticking on trees".

 

I didn't include Cannon Mtn nor Pinkham Notch, but we know how it turned out there.

 

http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-6EEDF90E-EC7F-415C-B9E7-FD6FCC7D2793.pdf

http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-90B8143F-671A-4442-81C0-296C039A3AFA.pdf

[powderfreak]

Was looking up the old COOP reports for Feb '69 in this area. Absolute monster totals everywhere.

 

Town | Feb 9-10 | Feb 22-28 | Monthly | Interesting Comments

Franklin 1NW | 20.0" | 35.5" | 64.0" | depth 62"

Franklin Falls | 14.0" | 32.0" | 56.5" | depth 56"

Center Harbor | 11.1" | 24.8" | 48.0" | depth 46" "Hard to measure both storms due to wind"

Gilmanton | 16.0" | 30.0" | 57.0" | depth 49"

Lakeport 1 | 14.6" | 35.9" | 65.3" | depth 57"

Lakeport 2 | 15.0" | 36.5" | 65.6"

Plymouth 1E | 19.0" | 38.0" | 69.1" | depth 56"

South Weare | 20.5" | 38.0" | 71.0" | depth 59"

West Rumney | 20.0" | 34.0" | 75.0" | "I regret that due to the great snow depths I cannot get a total measurement"

Wolfeboro | 26.0" | 40.0" | 73.0" | depth 68"

 

Wow I didn't realize that was a 6-day storm!  Or was it like in like a couple concentrated bursts among those dates?

 

What's interesting is I know some of the more prominent upslope towns around here certainly have periods where 6-days produce totals higher than that, but you'd never get those snow depths with it, haha. 

[eekuasepinniW]

I can't imagine what 36" from a single storm would be like.

[tamarack]

Was looking up the old COOP reports for Feb '69 in this area. Absolute monster totals everywhere.

 

Town | Feb 9-10 | Feb 22-28 | Monthly | Interesting Comments

Franklin 1NW | 20.0" | 35.5" | 64.0" | depth 62"

Franklin Falls | 14.0" | 32.0" | 56.5" | depth 56"

Center Harbor | 11.1" | 24.8" | 48.0" | depth 46" "Hard to measure both storms due to wind"

Gilmanton | 16.0" | 30.0" | 57.0" | depth 49"

Lakeport 1 | 14.6" | 35.9" | 65.3" | depth 57"

Lakeport 2 | 15.0" | 36.5" | 65.6"

Plymouth 1E | 19.0" | 38.0" | 69.1" | depth 56"

South Weare | 20.5" | 38.0" | 71.0" | depth 59"

West Rumney | 20.0" | 34.0" | 75.0" | "I regret that due to the great snow depths I cannot get a total measurement"

Wolfeboro | 26.0" | 40.0" | 73.0" | depth 68"

 

Farmington (Maine, not NH):  11.0"; 43.0"; 67.0"; depth 84".   Biggest storm, month, and depth (and highest depth I've found for any Maine station.)

 

My favorite:

Pinkham Notch:  30.0"; 77.0"; 130.0"; depth 164".  Mansfield may top that depth some day, but I don't think any other NE location will get particularly close.

 

J.Spin (and others):  I've found essentially zero useful correlation between Novie snow and season snow.  For your 9 seasons:

 

Year...Nov.....Season

2006.....0.0".....95.3"

2007.....1.3"....142.3"    Top snow winter of my 17 here.

2008.....3.5"...101.4"

2009.....3.4".....64.8"

2010.....1.5"...100.5"

2011...11.2".....68.0"

2012.....2.5".....90.4"

2013.....1.6"...101.3

2014...17.0"...112.8"

 

Avg......4.7".....97.4"   My 17-yr avg is 89.4", median 90.4".

Med.....2.5"....100.5"

[dendrite]

Wow I didn't realize that was a 6-day storm!  Or was it like in like a couple concentrated bursts among those dates?

 

What's interesting is I know some of the more prominent upslope towns around here certainly have periods where 6-days produce totals higher than that, but you'd never get those snow depths with it, haha. 

It was more like the 24th-27th of that stretch up here, but it's generally known as the 100hr storm or Feb 22-28. Most of the COOPs indicate 72+ hrs of continuous snowfall with the heaviest the night of the 24th through the 26th.

[CoastalWx]

Heh...he had "tough to measure" for almost every storm whereas some of the other sites mentioned "snow sticking on trees".

 

I didn't include Cannon Mtn nor Pinkham Notch, but we know how it turned out there.

 

http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-6EEDF90E-EC7F-415C-B9E7-FD6FCC7D2793.pdf

http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-90B8143F-671A-4442-81C0-296C039A3AFA.pdf

 

Osippees kill CH on N-NE flow. They do better in SWFE. Obviously still a hell of a month there.

[powderfreak]

It was more like the 24th-27th of that stretch up here, but it's generally known as the 100hr storm or Feb 22-28. Most of the COOPs indicate 72+ hrs of continuous snowfall with the heaviest the night of the 24th through the 26th.

 

Crazy. 

 

Those monthly totals look like March 2001 or December 2003 up in this neck of the woods.

[tamarack]

It was more like the 24th-27th of that stretch up here, but it's generally known as the 100hr storm or Feb 22-28. Most of the COOPs indicate 72+ hrs of continuous snowfall with the heaviest the night of the 24th through the 26th.

 

Farmington, with (then) 7A obs time, shows the snowfall as 25-28:  15"; 17", 8"; 3".  With midnight obs, might have been 24-27 with something like 4"; 22", 12"; 5"

[powderfreak]

I'd highly suggest anyone with an interesting in meso-scale snowfall in the Greens to read this:

 

http://www.weather.gov/media/erh/ta2015_05.pdf

 

Congrats to Nittany for a published paper on the Froude Number and thanks for furthering the science up here of meso-scale upslope precipitation.

 

I know a lot of folks on here joke about "who cares?" because its so localized, but these are actually decently populated areas (impacting VT's most populated county) and have the busiest stretch of roadway in the state running right through it (MPV to BTV on I-89).  This has huge implications as anyone who has sat stuck on I-89 while squalls of 2-3"/hr roll through (and 50mph winds blast the Bolton Flats) knows that it can come out of nowhere.  Its definitely a much bigger deal in BTV's CWA than GYX's though they probably experience similar conditions across their northern locations.

 

These two graphics pretty much show the general objective.  Figuring out the conditions that lead to each type of orographic snowfall and how to forecast it.

 

 

[dryslot]

That storm, Has been my avatar that i have used in winter over the last several seasons, Klew recorded 36" over that period

 

[Lava Rock]

That storm, Has been my avatar that i have used in winter over the last several seasons, Klew recorded 36" over that period

 

Feb69.jpg

Ha, even my hill looks to have been blasted.