powderfreak Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Could see some acute localized flash flooding as this is mountainous terrain these are in, and they aren't moving fast at all. High VILS ... radar estimate on wunderground showing even showing a pixel or two of 3"+ down in extreme SE Addison County. That storm near Sugarbush right now looks pretty solid with 60+ dbz. That's gotta be some torrential rain. I didn't read the morning AFD, but looks like TABER was all over it... .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 958 AM EDT MONDAY...SEVERAL MINOR CHANGES TO CRNT FCST WHICH INCLUDED EXPANDING LIKELY POPS ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT MTNS AND BUMPED TEMPS UP BY 1 TO 2 DEGREES. LATEST WATER VAPOR SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE LOCATED OVER EASTERN NY WITH GENERAL MOVEMENT TWD SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VT THIS MORNING. THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL COMBINED WITH MODERATE SFC INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY. VIS SATL PIC ALREADY SHOWING SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER THE TRRN OF THE DACKS/GREEN MTNS OF VT...WHICH SHOULD SLOW BUILD AND DEVELOP SHOWERS BY NOON TODAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LIGHT WIND FLOW THRU 200MB < 15 KNOTS WITH PW VALUES BTWN 1.10 AND 1.30" FROM NEARBY SOUNDINGS. EXPECTING SLOW MOVING STORMS WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS...BUT PW VALUES ARE MODEST SO EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL TO BE VERY ISOLATED AND MAINLY OVER THE TRRN. WILL STILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING OVER THE MTNS...GIVEN THE VERY SLOW STORM MOTIONS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS. IN ADDITION...WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 2000 AND 2500 J/KG...AN ISOLATED WET MICROBURST IS POSSIBLE...WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER CELLS. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S MTN VALLEYS TO NEAR 90F CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC WINDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Yeah I was just trying to think of any cams from the Champlain Valley looking east towards the Spine. With sunny skies in the valley, I bet someone caught a sick time lapse of simultaneous initiation up and down the Spine from Killington almost to Mansfield. It isn't that great a view with all of the haze. Everything is milky white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 It isn't that great a view with all of the haze. Everything is milky white. Ahhh makes sense...harsh midday summer light mixed with haze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Ahhh makes sense...harsh midday summer light mixed with haze.That radar shot makes it look like those storms are stationary. Flash floods possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 I see Bolton Valley is up to 1.19" and Waitsfield 1.28" with more rain falling. Going to be some localized heavy rainers this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Dammit...powers out now. Some ridiculous lightning. No rain here yet haha. I love when the power goes out before the storm . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Looks like close to a half inch of rain in about 15 minutes just eyeballing the gauge out in the yard. Powers still out. Best thunder and lightning of the season so far. I saw a PWS in Morrisville hit a 4.27/hr rain rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Dammit...powers out now. Some ridiculous lightning. No rain here yet haha. I love when the power goes out before the storm . I was in southern India back in 89. You could always tell when it would rain because we would lose power 10 minutes before the rain started and regain it just before the rain would stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Looks like close to a half inch of rain in about 15 minutes just eyeballing the gauge out in the yard. Powers still out. Best thunder and lightning of the season so far. I saw a PWS in Morrisville hit a 4.27/hr rain rate. My eyeballing was a bit high. 0.39" from that storm, but not a bad little soak for the vegetation after a few dry warm days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 Nice to get a direct hit on a shower today. .31". Missed all the rain yesterday so really glad to get something if we miss everything with the cold front tonight/tomorrow AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 I can't wait for the FROPA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 Brief heavy rain and what looked like thunderstorms on radar but didn't hear any thunder. Only picked up 0.16" with this afternoon's brief downpour, 0.55" in the past 2-days. Could use some real rains though even after the record wet June. These little afternoon downpours do nothing but cause the low level moisture to go through the roof. Its 70/69 out there with ground fog developing. It feels ridiculously humid. Its funny looking at the local dews because PWS reporting some rainfall this afternoon have the highest dews. Spots that stayed dry are 63-66F Tds, while spots that got rainfall over the past couple hours are all up in that 68-71F Td range. I want to live at 2,300ft at Coles Pond in Walden though...where its 63/63 right now. Almost impossible there to get dews near 70F at that elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 0.66" in the gauge this morning. 56/48 feels nice and still dropping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 Had almost enough rain to wet the ground. Got to watch that solid line of yellow-orange echoes disintegrate into green patches as it reached my place, then re-form a bit once to the east. Gauge actually might've picked up a couple hundredths after I left for work, which would bring my 2-week total to 0.15". Garden living off June rains as long as it can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 0.66" in the gauge this morning. 56/48 feels nice and still dropping. Looks like I was a relative minimum locally...decent area of 1"+ on the west side of the Notch with Jeffersonville 1.30" and Underhill 1.59". MVL with 0.19" continuing to show that the ASOS can't measure rain to save its life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 Had almost enough rain to wet the ground. Got to watch that solid line of yellow-orange echoes disintegrate into green patches as it reached my place, then re-form a bit once to the east. Gauge actually might've picked up a couple hundredths after I left for work, which would bring my 2-week total to 0.15". Garden living off June rains as long as it can. FROPA was nada. 0.02". Our new winter hollyberries are losing leaves fast. Apparently not enough water despite watering heavily over the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 System total .35". Really lucked out with my .30" shower yesterday. Just enough to keep the surface from completely drying out. Just a beautiful day 68/59F at 2pm with sunny skies. By the way PSU updated its main page and looks like it had a new high def camera. Click on the image a couple of times and it zooms in. Really nice to see the southern whites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 How's it looking for northern/central Maine this weekend? I hate to ask MBY questions but I'm not sure what to expect for Saturday.....washout? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 Cold this morning. 51f Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 43F here. I see 39F at BML and HIE on the hourlies. 35F at SLK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 43F here. I see 39F at BML and HIE on the hourlies. 35F at SLK. Wow, 82F here in Panama City Beach, FL. The water temp is 88F. I'm a long way from home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 43F here. I see 39F at BML and HIE on the hourlies. 35F at SLK. Low 40s here, but check out the craziness below: GYX update at 6:51 AM NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATE... HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. TEMPERATURES FELL INTO THE UPPER 30S LAST NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL BE A REPEAT TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLY EVEN SOME ISOLATED FROST IN THE ELEVATED VALLEYS UP NORTH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 Low 40s here, but check out the craziness below: GYX update at 6:51 AM NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATE... HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. TEMPERATURES FELL INTO THE UPPER 30S LAST NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL BE A REPEAT TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLY EVEN SOME ISOLATED FROST IN THE ELEVATED VALLEYS UP NORTH. Air mass came in a little stronger than I thought yesterday. Didn't expect the upper 30s dewpoints to make it into our zones, but they did. 38 for a low at HIE and I thought tonight would always be the colder of the two nights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 Air mass came in a little stronger than I thought yesterday. Didn't expect the upper 30s dewpoints to make it into our zones, but they did. 38 for a low at HIE and I thought tonight would always be the colder of the two nights. Yeah it was colder than I expected this morning. SLK with a nice 34F minimum on July 16th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 Air mass came in a little stronger than I thought yesterday. Didn't expect the upper 30s dewpoints to make it into our zones, but they did. 38 for a low at HIE and I thought tonight would always be the colder of the two nights.frost advisory? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 We take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 frost advisory? Ugh, I really don't want to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 Ugh, I really don't want to.SPS....those that have to worry about know who they are. It's like the winter when a light snowfall will mainly be below advisory criteria but BTV's AFD says "expecting widespread 2-4 inch amounts but some of our snowier spots in and along the Spine may see isolated 4-6 amounts, but you know who you are." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 SPS....those that have to worry about know who they are. It's like the winter when a light snowfall will mainly be below advisory criteria but BTV's AFD says "expecting widespread 2-4 inch amounts but some of our snowier spots in and along the Spine may see isolated 4-6 amounts, but you know who you are." Still a fair bit of uncertainty too. Models aren't showing quite the same potential dewpoints overnight as last night. Of course, they may be out to lunch again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 frost advisory? Ugh, I really don't want to. Where is all the HHH?, Love it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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