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May 2015 General disco


Powerball

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We're kinda due for some 80 degree dews, but I doubt I'll still be here if it happens.

 

I know I've seen my last here...unless I get unlucky when coming back to visit friends, sometime down the road. :lol:

 

I had to go back and check, and July 20, 2011 was the last day with a 80˚ dewpoint at LAF.

 

Yearly total 80˚+ dewpoint days (and max value) since 2004:

 

2004: 2 days (max: 81˚)

2005: 2 days (max: 81˚)

2006: 0 days (max: 79˚)

2007: 0 days (max: 76˚)

2008: 0 days (max: 75˚)

2009: 0 days (max: 74˚)

2010: 6 days (max: 82˚)

2011: 3 days (max: 82˚)

2012: 0 days (max: 76˚)

2013: 0 days (max: 77˚)

2014: 0 days (max: 76˚)

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This two day period in southern Ontario is going to have the most impressive temperature departures I've seen in May. In Hanover we broke the daily record at noon already at 30ºC/86ºF. Its the earliest three oh in at least decades since these records don't go back past 1972. The previous record was 28.5ºC. The humidex is also going to be ridiculously high for this time of year; its at 32C and tomorrow it will be trying for 35C or 95F. The overnight low is uncertain because of the crappy weather recording system but it said 18ºC or 17ºC...just nuts. I'm way past Toronto's current temperature by 6ºC (24ºC). My average high for today is 17ºC which was the low as mentioned. The temperature rose very rapidly this morning and was already 28ºC by 10:30 am...that's like a June-July heatwave...

 

What is neat about this early May heat is the leaf out isn't even complete here, I had to have full multi-covers on when in bed 6 days ago...about 3-4 blankets with full wear on like in the middle of winter - now 1 light blanket and shorts and its possible no covers if it gets humid enough overnight! The gap between our first 20ºC day and 30ºC is one of the shortest ever at about a week or so, if you have a basement, the difference in temperature from upstairs and downstairs is the greatest I've ever experienced with the possible exception of the Great March Heatwave but I don't recall feeling as cold as I did yesterday.

 

Link: http://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/articles/heat-records-set-to-be-broken-across-ontario-and-quebec-/50812/

 

Speaking of storms, I wouldn't be surprised to get a moderate-grade thunderstorm that is just below severe limits either later today or tomorrow. They updated the thunderstorm icon just a hour ago to show a more potent potential Saturday and Sunday. Either way, this is perfect and much deserved after months of pure dumpster diaper concentrate.

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There's still disagreement on how models want to handle Sunday.


 


The GGEM/EURO would keep us in the warm sector and get us back into at least the upper 70s.


 


Meanwhile, the NAM/GFS keep the warm front south of the OH/IN border and struggle to get us out of the 60s. 


 


IT'll be interesting to see which solution wins out. 


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This has to be one of the warmest first ten days of May. A lot of places are near the monthly record high for mean temperatures (and I know that's going to change with cooler temperatures next week), but it's impressive because typically May gets a lot warmer as the month wears on. So to be up nearly monthly records after the first third of the month is pretty impressive in its own right. I'm assuming the warmest historic Mays tended to have their biggest warm spells in the second half of the month.

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Also, with respect to tomorrow, the 12z NAM doesn't get the front nearly as far south as it did yesterday. The Ohio Border counties get into the 80s again on Sunday. Just need another bump northward...

 

Fairly impressive temp gradient though. 

 

44*F at MBS and 80*F at ADG...

 

temp33.gif

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Detroit tied its record high of 87*F today, which was the record set in 2014, lol...

Yesterday was my bday. Since the start of 2014 (this includes highs, lows, & daily mean temp), Detroit has set or tied 22 record lows and just 2 record highs. Both record highs? 87F on May 8th, set in 2014 and tied in 2015 :lmao: I was born in the evening on a cold, rainy day and DTW set a record low of 29F that night. 1983 was a cold spring following a mild, snowless winter, and it was colder the day I was born than it was that Christmas 1982.

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Also, with respect to tomorrow, the 12z NAM doesn't get the front nearly as far south as it did yesterday. The Ohio Border counties get into the 80s again on Sunday. Just need another bump northward...

 

12z GFS went the same direction.

 

In fact, the GFS shows a 5*C difference in 925mb temps (between the 00z and 12z run) at 15z tomorrow.

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Good ol' EC

 

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 10:41 A.M. EDT SATURDAY 9 MAY 2015.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR:
=NEW= SOUTHERN ONTARIO.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
CONDITIONS ARE FAVOURABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR 30 MM. THE MAIN CONCERN IS
FOR REGIONS THAT RECEIVE MORE THAN ONE THUNDERSTORM, WHERE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS COULD EXCEED 50 MM IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
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It looks as though Detroit's high today will be 83*F. That makes 3 consecutive days of 80*F+ weather tomorrow, and I would consider it a heatwave relative to May.

 

There's a good chance the streak is broken tomorrow, but it depends on frontal placement and coverage of cloud debris/convection...

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It looks as though Detroit's high today will be 83*F. That makes 3 consecutive days of 80*F+ weather tomorrow, and I would consider it a heatwave relative to May.

 

There's a good chance the streak is broken tomorrow, but it depends on frontal placement and coverage of cloud debris/convection...

I know what your saying, but I just consider it a warm spell. It would be like calling 3 consecutive days of 55F+ in January a heatwave. Heatwave is 3 consecutive days of 95F+ or 5 consecutive days of 90F+

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I know what your saying, but I just consider it a warm spell. It would be like calling 3 consecutive days of 55F+ in January a heatwave. Heatwave is 3 consecutive days of 95F+ or 5 consecutive days of 90F+

 

You have a point. At least in our area, people do generally equate a heatwave with several consecutive days of 90*F+ heat

 

Technically though, there are numerous ways to define a heatwave. Personally, I would even consider 3 consecutive days of 55*F+ weather in January a heatwave, as it's unseasonably warm weather (versus a day where the temp is just a few degrees above average).

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