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May 2015 General disco


Powerball

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The Black Hills always seem to get dumped on late in the season...yet in midwinter they can be 70F or warmer.  Weird climate. 

 

Cooler here this morning.  Looks like we drop all the way into the mid 50Fs on Tues for highs.

 

Yesterday was more like July...i think i had low 70Fs when i took my sun to school, and it was still upper 70Fs late last night before the line of storms came through...   Amazing amount of growth the last few days on my trees...  crazy how fast plants respond.  

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Indeed ALEK....

Pretty fascinating set up as a whole now and through the next few days...from a national viewpoint.

Looks like an uptick NW of St Louis...could be some decent rumblers in LOT later

 

i'm semi-bullish on a solid complex into the area later this afternoon/evening.

 

not severe or anything, just quality garden variety

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i'm semi-bullish on a solid complex into the area later this afternoon/evening.

not severe or anything, just quality garden variety

My thought also...but a quick review of OBS and satte....there might be a case for a few sneaky cells...not widespread severe, but wouldn't shock me to see a warning or two in area...i'm happy with either

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My thought also...but a quick review of OBS and satte....there might be a case for a few sneaky cells...not widespread severe, but wouldn't shock me to see a warning or two in area...i'm happy with either

 

 

decent instability building ahead of the complex, especially the SE CWA

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Danville cell over 50k...

Pockets of 2500 SB CAPE now showing up

 

 

HRRR with popcorn all over the CWA early this evening, looks like a soaker is a lock

 

combine this with another round or two through monday and we can safely put any D0 talk in the rearview

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THE MAIN CONCERN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT IS THE THREAT FOR VERY

HEAVY RAINFALL.

A VERY WARM AND UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE

AREA OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN

IOWA. BOTH KILX AND KDVN 12 UTC RAOBS ALREADY INDICATED PRECIPITABLE

WATER VALUES AROUND 1.3 INCHES...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 1.6

INCHES NOTED ON THE SPRINGFIELD MISSOURI RAOB...WHICH IS OVER 2

STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AN AREA OF

SHOWERS...WITH THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING AT THE PRESENT INTO WEST

CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE

AND AN ENHANCED AREA OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER

MISSOURI. THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS

NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DEVELOPING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD

THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THIS APPROACHING

DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE

ATMOSPHERE OVER THE REGION. MODIFYING THE LATEST AMDAR SOUNDING OUT

OF KMDW FOR FORECASTED HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON YIELDS

AROUND 1600 J/KG OF SBCAPE. OVERALL...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEEP

LAYER SHEAR APPEARS POOR ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...SO THE THREAT

FOR SEVERE HAIL APPEARS LOW IN MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...A SLIGHTLY

BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCT SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP LATER

THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MY SOUTHEASTERN CWA AS THE UPPER LEVEL WIND

FIELD BEGINS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING WAVE.

IT APPEARS THAT A COUPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD SHIFT

NORTHEASTWARD RIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CHICAGO METRO AREA INTO

TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT AN ENHANCE LOW LEVEL JET IN

ASSOCIATION WITH THIS APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN SHARP

PLUME OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE RIGHT ACROSS

NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWESTERN INDIANA THIS EVENING. THIS

SHOULD HELP PWATS INCREASE UP CLOSER TO 1.6 INCHES...SIMILAR TO

WHAT WAS MEASURED OVER SPRINGFIELD MISSOURI THIS MORNING.

THEREFORE...STORMS SHOULD BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS...AND

COULD BEGIN TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS

THIS EVENING BEFORE THINGS BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.

GIVEN THAT THIS AXIS OF HEAVER RAINFALL COULD OCCUR RIGHT ACROSS

THE CHICAGO METRO AREA THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME FLOODING

ISSUES. AT THE PRESENT WE HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY

FLASH FLOOD WATCH...BUT INSTEAD HAVE ISSUED AN ESF TO HIGHLIGHT

THIS CONCERN.

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Real rough day with the dewpoint falling from the mid 50's to the mid 40's this evening. This is child's play. Check back with me when it's 90˚/78˚. :lol:

We're kinda due for some 80 degree dews, but I doubt I'll still be here if it happens.

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