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May 2015 temperature forecast contest


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Predict the temperature anomalies (F deg) relative to 1981-2010 normal values for

 

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

and a bonus contest, predict the seasonal (now to mid-October) highest maximum temperature at each of these locations.

 

Late penalties same as usual, 1% for every 2 hours late in the interval 06z May 1 to 18z May 2 then 1% per 1 hour late to expiry on May 6th.

 

Good luck.

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DCA +3.2             102

NYC +2.7             100

BOS +1.7              97

ORD +2.2            102

ATL +2.5              103

IAH -1.7                103

DEN -2.0              104

PHX -0.8               116

SEA +1.2               96

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DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

+1.1___+1.0__+0.5___-0.8____0______-2.0____+1.2__+2.1__+1.0

 

 

and a bonus contest, predict the seasonal (now to mid-October) highest maximum temperature at each of these locations.

 

DCA___NYC___BOS__ORD____ATL___IAH___DEN_____PHX__SEA

99___97_____95____98_____101___103_____98______115___97

 

 

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DCA +1.8             97


NYC +2.5             95


BOS +1.9             95


ORD +1.2            98


ATL +2.1              99


IAH +1.6             101


DEN + 1.2          100


PHX +1.1           113


SEA +1.0              94


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 DCA ___ NYC ___ BOS ______ ORD ___ ATL ___ IAH ______ DEN ___ PHX ___ SEA

+1.8      +1.8      +1.4             +1.5      +1.5     -0.2                 +0.7     +1.1   +0.9

  99          98         97               99         98       104                  104       115     95

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DCA _____NYC____BOS____ORD____ATL_____IAH________DEN_____PHX_____SEA

+3.3 ____+2.4 ___+1.7 __ +1.6 __+2.5  ___-1.2 _______+0.5  ___ 0.0 _____+1.6

 

Highest readings:

 

DCA: 96°

NYC: 96°

BOS: 94°

ORD: 95°

ATL: 98°

IAH: 100°

DEN: 104°

PHX: 117°

SEA: 91°

 

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DCA _____NYC____BOS____ORD____ATL_____IAH________DEN_____PHX_____SEA


+2.8 ____+2.4 __ +1.7 __  +2.5 __+0.7  ___  -0.5_______  +0.8  ___+1.2 _____+2.1


 


 


 


 


DCA: 100°


NYC: 96°


BOS: 96°


ORD: 98°


ATL: 100°


IAH: 103°


DEN: 105°


PHX: 118°


SEA: 94°


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Predict the temperature anomalies (F deg) relative to 1981-2010 normal values for

 

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

and a bonus contest, predict the seasonal (now to mid-October) highest maximum temperature at each of these locations.

 

Late penalties same as usual, 1% for every 2 hours late in the interval 06z May 1 to 18z May 2 then 1% per 1 hour late to expiry on May 6th.

 

Good luck.

DCA:+1.3

NYC:+0.8

BOS:+0.3

ORD:+1.0

ATL:+1.4

IAH:+1.6

 

The edit is for the max temp contest

DCA:100(in late June)

NYC:97

BOS:94

ORD:99

ATL:102

IAH:104

DEN:98

PHX:116(but it's a dry heat)

SEA:91

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DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ___ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

+2.2 __ +2.0 __ +1.8 ____ +2.4 __ +2.7 __ +1.8 __ +1.5 __ +1.5 __ +1.5

 

105 __ 104 __ 102 _____ 107 __ 100 __ 105 _____ 101 __ 121 __ 100

 

(one hour remains to start of time penalties but anyone can add or amend seasonal max values without penalty until May 10th, then you are stuck with your guesses ... you don't need to make any notes of seasonal max edits because I won't construct a table until May 11th, but your monthly forecasts will be tabulated by the 3rd so same does not apply there ... the seasonal max contest will run through mid-October although I expect it to be settled by early September, and will be based on total degree-error stats (no squares, it hurts my brain). )

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DCA +3.0             103

NYC +2.5             101

BOS +1.5              98

ORD +2.0            103

ATL +1.8              104

IAH -1.0                104

DEN -1.5              103

PHX -0.5               117

SEA +1.5               97

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Forecasts for May 2015

 

The seasonal max forecasts will be tabulated separately, and you can edit or amend them, or enter for the first time, all the way to end of Monday, May 11th. It's unlikely that anyone will gain much advantage as seasonal maxima are most likely from late June to early September. Thanks for entering that contest. Meanwhile, here are the (all on time) forecasts for May ...

 

 

FORECASTER _____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

Midlo Snow Maker  ________ +3.4 _ +2.9 _ +2.9 __ +3.4 _ +2.9 _ +2.6 ___ +4.0 _ +1.1 _ +1.1

Rodney S ________________+3.3 _ +2.4 _ +1.7 __ +1.6 _ +2.5 _ --1.2 ___ +0.5 __ 0.0 _ +1.6

Stebo ___________________+3.2 _ +2.7 _ +1.7 __ +2.2 _ +2.5 _ --1.7 ___ --2.0 _ --0.8 _ +1.2

Blazess556 ______________ +3.0 _ +2.5 _ +1.5 __ +2.0 _ +1.8 _ --1.0 ___ --1.5 _ --0.5 _ +1.5

Isotherm ________________+2.8 _ +2.4 _ +1.7 __ +2.5 _ +0.7 _ --0.5 ___ +0.8 _ +1.2 _ +2.1

Damage in Tolland ________ +2.8 _ +2.3 _ +1.9 __ +1.6 _ +2.5 _ +0.8 ___ +1.9 _ +2.0 _ +1.1

Absolute Humidity ________ +2.6 _ +2.3 _ +2.7 __ +3.2 _ +2.1 _ +0.5 ___ --0.3 _ +1.9 _ --0.1

Rjay ___________________ +2.5 _ +3.0 _ +3.0 __ +2.5 _ +2.2 _ --0.2____+0.2 _ +1.0 _ +0.8

BKviking ________________ +2.4 _ +1.9 _ +1.9 __ +2.3 _ +2.0 _ --0.2 ___ +2.1 _ +1.9 _ +1.2

Maxim __________________+2.3 _ +2.0 _ +1.5 __ +2.8 _ +1.4 _ +0.5 ___ +1.0 _ --0.2 _ +1.7

 

 

Consensus _______________+2.3 _ +2.0 _ +1.6 __ +1.9 _ +1.6 _ --0.2 ___ +1.0 _ +1.2 _ +1.1

 

Roger Smith _____________ +2.2 _ +2.0 _ +1.8 __ +2.4 _ +2.7 _ +1.8 ___ +1.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.5

wxallannj ________________ +1.8 _ +2.5 _ +1.9 __ +1.2 _ +2.1 _ +1.6 ___ +1.2 _ +1.1 _ +1.0

wxdude64 _______________ +1.8 _ +1.8 _ +1.4 __ +1.5 _ +1.5 _ --0.2 ___ +0.7 _ +1.1 _ +0.9

DonSutherland.1 __________ +1.5 _ +1.4 _ +1.0 __ +2.3 _ +1.0 _ --0.3 ___ +1.1 _ +1.5 _ +1.0

Tenman Johnson  _________+1.3 _ +0.8 _ +0.3 __ +1.0 _ +1.4 _ +1.6

hudsonvalley21 ___________ +1.1 _ +1.4 _ +0.8 __ +1.7 _ +1.3 _ +0.3 ___ +1.2 _ --0.1 _ --0.3

Tom ____________________+1.1 _ +1.0 _ +0.8 __ +1.1 _ +1.4 _ +1.2 ___ +0.4 _ +1.4 _ +0.4

ksammut ________________ +1.1 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 __ --0.8 __ 0.0 _ --2.0 ___ +1.2 _ +2.1 _ +1.0

SD _____________________+1.0 _ +0.5 _ +0.3 __ --0.5 _ +0.5 _ --0.5 ___ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0

Mallow __________________+0.2 _ +0.4 _ --0.4 __ --1.7 _ --0.8 _ --1.9 ___ +1.2 _ +1.4 _ +1.6

 

Normal __________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ______ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

 

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____________ DCA __NYC __BOS ____ORD __ATL __IAH ____ DEN __PHX __SEA

 

___ (5d) ____ +5.5 _ +7.2 _ +0.6 ___ +4.4 _ --0.5 _ --2.7 ___ +4.4 _ +3.3 _ +1.6

___ (8d) ____ +7.1 _ +7.4 _ +3.1 ___ +6.8 _ +1.6 __ 0.0 ____+2.1 _ +0.2 _ +2.1

__ (10d) ____ +7.9 _ +7.3 _ +4.5 ___ +4.5 _ +3.2 _ +1.2 ___ --1.9 _ --1.7 _ +3.0

__ (12d) ____ +9.0 _ +8.6 _ +5.4 ___ +3.0 _ +4.2 _ +0.8 ___ --2.7 _ --1.4 _ +2.5

__ (14d) ____ +7.5 _ +7.3 _ +5.0 ___ +1.4 _ +4.2 _ +0.7 ___ --2.3 _ --1.5 _ +1.9

__ (16d) ____ +7.4 _ +6.2 _ +4.7 ___ +2.4 _ +4.3 _ +1.0 ___ --2.3 _ --3.3 _ +1.8

 

__ (p23d) ___ +6.0 _ +5.6 _ +3.8 ___ +2.0 _ +5.1 _ +2.2 ___ --2.3 _ --3.5 _ +3.1

 

__ (p31d) ___ +4.8 _ +4.3 _ +3.0 ___ +2.3 _ +3.6 _ +1.7 ___ --0.2 _ --1.7 _ +2.3

 

Starting tomorrow, this table will be continued in a new post and we'll count down daily with provisional tables to be added around the 20th. As speculated on Friday, PHX ran -15 (anomalies, highs were only in the mid-70s) the past two days and picked up an inch of rain on Friday. The projections bring them back closer to normal but it may stay around four to six degrees below their normals this week.

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2015 Seasonal Maximum Contest

 

 

FORECASTER ___________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

 

Roger Smith _____________ 105 _ 104 _ 102 ___ 107 _ 100 _ 105 ____ 101 _ 121 _ 100

blazess556 ______________ 103 _ 101 __ 98 ___ 103 _ 104 _ 104 ____ 103 _ 117 __ 97

Stebo __________________ 102 _ 100 __ 97 ___ 102 _ 102 _ 103 ____ 104 _ 116 __ 96

Rjay ___________________ 102 __ 98 __ 98 ___ 101 _ 101 _ 103 ____ 101 _ 117 __ 94

SD ____________________ 101 _ 100 __ 96 ____ 94 _ 103 _ 106 _____ 99 _ 114 __ 95

Mallow _________________ 101 __ 99 __ 96 ___ 103 _ 102 _ 103 ____ 100 _ 118 __ 97 (104 PDX)DonSutherland.1 __________101 __ 97 __ 97 ____ 98 _ 100 _ 102 ____ 104 _ 116 __ 90

Tenman Johnson _________100 __ 97 __ 94 ____ 99 _ 102 _ 104 _____ 98 _ 116 __ 91

Isotherm _______________ 100 __ 96 __ 96 ____ 98 _ 100 _ 103 ____ 105 _ 118 __ 94

 

Consensus _______________ 99 __ 97 __ 96 ____ 99 _ 101 _ 103 ____ 101 _ 116 __ 94

 

 

wxdude64 _______________ 99 __ 98 __ 97 ____ 99 __ 98 _ 104 ____ 104 _ 115 __ 95

MidloSnow Maker __________99 __ 98 __ 97 ____ 98 __ 98 _ 102 ____ 101 _ 114 __ 91

ksammut ________________ 99 __ 97 __ 95 ____ 98 _ 101 _ 103 _____ 98 _ 115 __ 97

Damage in Tolland _________98 __ 98 __ 96 ____ 98 __ 99 _ 103 ____ 102 _ 116 __ 93

Maxim __________________ 98 __ 97 __ 97 ____ 99 _ 100 _ 102 ____ 103 _ 116 __ 91

Tom ____________________98 __ 97 __ 94 ____ 98 _ 101 _ 103 _____ 97 _ 116 __ 93

Absolute Humidity _________ 98 __ 94 __ 92 ___ 101 _ 100 _ 104 ____ 100 _ 118 __ 92

BKviking _________________97 __ 95 __ 95 ____ 99 __ 98 _ 101 ____ 102 _ 115 __ 92

wxallannj ________________ 97 __ 95 __ 95 ____ 98 __ 99 _ 101 ____ 100 _ 113 __ 94

RodneyS _________________96 __ 96 __ 94 ____ 95 __ 98 _ 100 ____ 104 _ 117 __ 91

_____________________________________________________________________

 

19 entries so the median (consensus) values are the 10th ranked.  ... forecasts are shown in descending order for DCA then if tied NYC, etc (some are tied through ORD).

 

Good luck everyone !

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This is a continuation of the previous report on anomalies, a few of those have been added. Now we will count down daily to the final values, with a provisional scoring table to be posted around end of this week.

 

____________ DCA __NYC __BOS ____ORD __ATL __IAH ____ DEN __PHX __SEA

 

 

___ (5d) ____ +5.5 _ +7.2 _ +0.6 ___ +4.4 _ --0.5 _ --2.7 ___ +4.4 _ +3.3 _ +1.6

__ (10d) ____ +7.9 _ +7.3 _ +4.5 ___ +4.5 _ +3.2 _ +1.2 ___ --1.9 _ --1.7 _ +3.0

__ (16d) ____ +7.4 _ +6.2 _ +4.7 ___ +2.4 _ +4.3 _ +1.0 ___ --2.3 _ --3.3 _ +1.8

__ (17d) ____ +7.7 _ +7.1 _ +4.5 ___ +3.2 _ +4.4 _ +1.0 ___ --2.4 _ --3.5 _ +1.9

__ (18d) ____ +8.2 _ +6.9 _ +4.0 ___ +3.2 _ +4.3 _ +1.0 ___ --2.7 _ --3.6 _ +2.3

__ (19d) ____ +8.5 _ +6.9 _ +3.8 ___ +2.3 _ +4.5 _ +1.0 ___ --3.4 _ --3.8 _ +2.4

__ (20d) ____ +8.1 _ +6.4 _ +3.5 ___ +1.3 _ +4.6 _ +1.1 ___ --4.2 _ --3.8 _ +2.6

__ (21d) ____ +7.3 _ +5.7 _ +3.2 ___ +1.1 _ +4.3 _ +1.0 ___ --4.5 _ --3.7 _ +2.9

__ (22d) ____ +6.7 _ +5.5 _ +3.2 ___ +0.8 _ +3.8 _ +0.7 ___ --4.6 _ --4.0 _ +2.8

 

 

__ (p31d) ___ +6.0 _ +5.0 _ +3.7 ___ +2.0 _ +3.4 _ +1.5 ___ --2.5 _ --3.0 _ +2.6

 

Changes made today to provisionals (22nd) will generally move the entire field (scores mostly down) and I plan to re-order the tables later today so check back to see how you're doing. Note on 23rd, I only had time to update anomalies for 22nd not projections. Table has become difficult to edit for some unknown reason so I am going to jump to a new and final countdown at the end of the thread.

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If you mean the regular monthly forecasts, then yes but you would need to start in June. If your question refers to the seasonal max contest, you can post an entry today if you want. I don't think we're going to see any contenders for that in the next two weeks anyway.

 

Meanwhile, note to forecasters: the countdown table is being updated every day in post 26.

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Scoring for May 2015

 

 

 

FORECASTER ___________ DCA_NYC_BOS___ clas ____ ORD_ATL_IAH___exp _____ TOTAL 

 

Rjay ____________________28 _ 49 _ 72___ 149 ____ 76 _ 84 _ 94 ___ 254 _____ 403

Damage in Tolland ________ 34 _ 35 _ 50 ___ 119 ____ 94 _ 90 _ 86 ___ 270 _____ 389

Rodney S ________________44 _ 37 _ 46 ___ 127 ____ 94 _ 90 _ 74 ___ 258 _____ 385

Midlo Snow Maker ________ 46 _ 47 _ 70 ___ 163 ____ 58 _ 98 _ 50 ___ 206 _____ 369

Absolute Humidity _________30 _ 35 _ 66 ___ 131 ____ 60 _ 82 _ 92 ___ 236 _____ 367

Stebo ___________________42 _ 43 _ 46 ___ 131 ____ 82 _ 90 _ 64 ___ 236 _____ 367

Blazess556 ______________ 38 _ 39 _ 42 ___ 119 ____ 86 _ 76 _ 78 ___ 240 _____ 359

BKviking ________________ 26 _ 27 _ 50 ___ 103 ____ 80 _ 80 _ 94 ___ 254 _____ 357

..

Consensus _______________24 _ 29 _ 44 ____ 97 ____ 88 _ 72 _ 94 ___ 254 _____ 351

.. 

wxallannj ________________18 _ 39 _ 50 ___ 107 ____ 98 _ 82 _ 70 ___ 250 _____ 357

wxdude64 _______________18 _ 25 _ 40 ____ 83 ____ 96 _ 70 _ 94 ___ 260 _____ 343

Isotherm ________________34 _ 37 _ 46 ___ 117 ____ 76 _ 54 _ 88 ___ 218 _____ 335

Roger Smith _____________ 22 _ 29 _ 48 ____ 99 ____ 78 _ 94 _ 66 ___ 238 _____ 337

Maxim __________________24 _ 29 _ 42 ____ 95 ____ 70 _ 68 _ 92 ___ 230 _____ 325

hudsonvalley21 ___________11 _ 17 _ 28 ____ 56 ____ 92 _ 66 _ 96 ___ 254 _____ 310

DonSutherland.1 __________15 _ 17 _ 32 ____ 64 ____ 80 _ 60 _ 92 ___ 232 _____ 296

Tom ___________________ 11 _ 10 _ 28 ____ 49 ____ 96 _ 68 _ 78 ___ 242 _____ 291

Tenman Johnson _________ 13 _ 08 _ 18 ____ 39 ____ 94 _ 68 _ 70 ___ 232 _____ 271

SD _____________________10 _ 05 _ 18 ____ 33 ____ 64 _ 50 _ 88 ___ 202 _____ 235

 

Normal __________________00 _ 00 _ 12 ____ 12 ____ 74 _ 40 _ 98 ___ 212 _____ 224

 

ksammut ________________ 11 _ 10 _ 22 ____ 43 ____ 58 _ 40 _ 58 ___ 156 _____ 199

Mallow __________________ 02 _ 04 _ 04 ____ 10 ____ 40 _ 24 _ 60 ___ 124 _____ 134

 

 

 

Scoring for Western contest May 2015

 

 

FORECASTER ____________ DEN_PHX_SEA ___ TOTAL

 

Stebo __________________ 58_ 48 _ 62 ____ 168

Blazess556 ______________ 48 _ 42 _ 68 ____ 158

Rodney S _______________ 08 _ 32 _ 70 ____ 110

Maxim __________________00 _ 36 _ 72 ____ 108

Isotherm ________________02 _ 08 _ 80 _____ 90

 

Normal _________________ 18 _ 32 _ 38 _____ 88

 

Rjay ____________________14 _ 12 _ 54 _____ 80

Mallow __________________00 _ 04 _ 70 _____ 74

wxdude64 _______________04 _ 10 _ 56 _____ 70

SD _____________________00 _ 12 _ 58 _____ 70

Roger Smith _____________ 00 _ 02 _ 68 _____ 70

Midlo Snow Maker ________ 00 _ 10 _ 60 _____ 70

wxallannj ________________00 _ 10 _ 58 _____ 68

 

Consensus _______________00 _ 08 _ 60 _____ 68

 

hudsonvalley21 ___________00 _ 34 _ 32 _____ 66

 

BKviking ________________ 00 _ 00 _ 62 _____ 62

Tom ___________________ 10 _ 04 _ 46 _____ 60

DonSutherland.1 __________00 _ 02 _ 58 _____ 60

Absolute Humidity _________24 _ 00 _ 36 _____ 60

Damage in Tolland ________ 00 _ 00 _ 60 _____ 60

ksammut ________________00 _ 00 _ 58 _____ 58

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