IsentropicLift Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 That's a dirty, dirty ridge on the 12z GFS. High dews, especially for this time of year coupled with a southwest flow and middle of May jet transporting plenty of Gulf moisture Northeastward as various pieces of energy eject into the flow. We destabalize every morning, we pop and sizzle and then we bang and pour every afternoon and evening. That front is going to take at least 7-10 days to clear the coast with that southeast ridge locked and loaded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 It's obviously way out in fantasy range but the 12z GFS has SBCAPE values > 2500 J/KG over PA nearly all next week. The best severe chances get hung up literally just to the West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 85 at EWR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeWeatherGeek Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 It's obviously way out in fantasy range but the 12z GFS has SBCAPE values > 2500 J/KG over PA nearly all next week. The best severe chances get hung up literally just to the West.hey yanks I'm taking a trip to Maine on Friday night I'll be there until Sunday morning I was wondering if it was safe to drive there and back and if there was any potential for flash flooding those couple of days? I know you like rain but I am frightened from flash flooding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 hey yanks I'm taking a trip to Maine on Friday night I'll be there until Sunday morning I was wondering if it was safe to drive there and back and if there was any potential for flash flooding those couple of days? I know you like rain but I am frightened from flash flooding? You should be fine, most of the rain falls Southwest of Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 Warmest day of the season so far right at the coast. Sea breeze just started so before that with sun we quickly shot up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted May 5, 2015 Author Share Posted May 5, 2015 Sheesh talk about HHH. We need a thunderstorm to come thru Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 Sheesh talk about HHH. We need a thunderstorm to come thru Hovering around 80 here with the sun in and out, but feels more like late June that May 5th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted May 5, 2015 Author Share Posted May 5, 2015 Hovering around 80 here with the sun in and out, but feels more like late June that May 5th Yeah im at 83 mostly cloudy skies humid as hell too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 ugly 24 hour model bust-most models had some good storms hitting us today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 The 12z Euro has very little rainfall here the next 10 days as the STS rains itself out over the Carolinas stuck under the strong ridge over our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 The 12z Euro has very little rainfall here the next 10 days as the STS rains itself out over the Carolinas stuck under the strong ridge over our area. That model has been terribly inconsistent, and consistently the weakest with the sub-tropical development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 Yeah im at 83 mostly cloudy skies humid as hell too You got what you asked for, here's your heat and from the occasional onshore day like tomorrow it's going to be around for a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 The 12z Euro has very little rainfall here the next 10 days as the STS rains itself out over the Carolinas stuck under the strong ridge over our area. That solution would not surprise me in the least. We're locked into a dry pattern these last 2 weeks and that subtropical ridge means business. Different month, but July 2013 had that sucker locked in and we were torching with almost no rainfall for 30 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted May 5, 2015 Author Share Posted May 5, 2015 You got what you asked for, here's your heat and from the occasional onshore day like tomorrow it's going to be around for a long time. I dont mind it. I just gotta get used to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 upton's update has only 20% chance of rain tonight and tomorrow and nothing after that til next Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 That solution would not surprise me in the least. We're locked into a dry pattern these last 2 weeks and that subtropical ridge means business. Different month, but July 2013 had that sucker locked in and we were torching with almost no rainfall for 30 days That was the king of all WAR retrogrades ending up in New Mexico. http://www.weather.com/science/news/meteorological-images-august-and-july-2013-20130830#/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 That was the king of all WAR retrogrades ending up in New Mexico. http://www.weather.com/science/news/meteorological-images-august-and-july-2013-20130830#/1 and that marked the end of the 2010-2013 hot summer/above normal regime...we've been generally at or below normal since then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 upton's update has only 20% chance of rain tonight and tomorrow and nothing after that til next Monday Humping the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 Humping the Euro. Likely correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 and that marked the end of the 2010-2013 hot summer/above normal regime...we've been generally at or below normal since then That was a hotter -PDO/+AMO version than we saw in the 1950's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 Likely correct Would you be saying that if it was the wettest model? I think not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeWeatherGeek Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 It' feels great out with the sea breeze kicking in earlier. It was hot around 12-1pm I mean the sun was strong. No rain tonight into tomorrow for us unless your in dutches county and north for tonight and maybe south of Toms river, NJ by tomorrow afternoon. Nice cool day on tap for tomorrow! By the way I will have a revised summer forecast map for the USA later this week. Nothing really changed for spring up until late July. But August and September could be a dud as far as warm weather. It should turn out below normal beginning August and September with mostly rain concentrated to our south and blocking for our region. Cold weather should resume late October! Watch for a big snowstorm around mid November! Talk to you guys later, don't watch tv watch me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 Drought breeds drought. Today is a perfect example. While we aren't in a drought soil moisture as in the very top layer is bone dry. That is having the effect of limiting available moisture. Wth the sun out earlier I thought for we would at least be seeing some showers right now. But the radar is dead. I hate drought so I hope for a pattern change soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 Would you be saying that if it was the wettest model? I think not. Yes I would, we need the rain. But it's the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 It' feels great out with the sea breeze kicking in earlier. It was hot around 12-1pm I mean the sun was strong. No rain tonight into tomorrow for us unless your in dutches county and north for tonight and maybe south of Toms river, NJ by tomorrow afternoon. Nice cool day on tap for tomorrow! By the way I will have a revised summer forecast map for the USA later this week. Nothing really changed for spring up until late July. But August and September could be a dud as far as warm weather. It should turn out below normal beginning August and September with mostly rain concentrated to our south and blocking for our region. Cold weather should resume late October! Watch for a big snowstorm around mid November! Talk to you guys later, don't watch tv watch me! No one should be calling anything a dud 3-4 months out IMO. We learned that this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeWeatherGeek Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 No one should be calling anything a dud 3-4 months out IMO. We learned that this winter.i called for a long and brutal winter combined with heavy snow. I said nyc would get 54 inches I was close enough. Nick you think, I still think you're a Brit, nowadays you do realize that I like my peanut butter Jiff! Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 i called for a long and brutal winter combined with heavy snow. I said nyc would get 54 inches I was close enough. Nick you think, I still think you're a Brit, nowadays you do realize that I like my peanut butter Jiff! Sent from my iPhone Huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 Nice day. Can't wait for my first lightning show of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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