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May 2015 Discussion & Observations


dmillz25

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NYC: 1.34

 

1.75 for the month and counting.  Missed it by 7 hours.

Ironically, NYC may end up with near average precipitation for May. They've already got 1.75" and should get at least another 1.5" by midnight considering the line of heavy thunderstorms approaching from central NJ. People will look back at May 2015 and not realize how dry most of the month was...how we baked day after day with no rain.

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TEB temperature readings looking suspicious again.

That drives me nuts...if my thermometer was giving suspicious readings it would be removed from reporting immediately till it was fixed...I have seen too many times these official sites continue to report...I still see the Linden station reporting and that station was flagged last year.

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That's why droughts are so rare for us, there's just too much that has to come together for rain and convection to keep avoiding us.

Personal little jackpot today for Middlesex County with flash flooding earlier.

 

Northern half of the county, southern end was bone dry.  

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That's the nature with convection. But if you go back to last week we had 384 hr GFS runs that showed less than inch of rain over the area for the entire run. The trough is being kicked East. 

 

The EPS mean basically has a flat ridge and the GEFS mean has a trough. The battle continues.

 

gfs-ens_z500a_us_41.png

 

ecmwf-ens_z500a_us_11.png

 

 

The Euro is already starting to show less rain for NYC than the previous runs for later in

the weekend. Hopefully, there is enough rain to get May over an inch since NYC is

still stuck at +0.32. So the best chance for NYC convection will come in on the last of

the month as per the Euro.

 

 

The GFS has been showing too much convective feedback this warm season after the

upgrade this past winter.

 

Not good when the GFS is beating the NAM in the wet bias contest.

 

https://twitter.com/tstmshadow/status/602103077018173441

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Our best shot per the 0Z Euro for most locations to pick up widespread  convection for the next 10 days 

will be Sunday into early Monday morning. The EPS rebuilds the ridge from around day 8 and beyond.

 

 

12Z Euro continues with widespread  convection Sunday and Sunday night across the area.

Storms arrive earlier in the day on Sunday now so not looking like a beach day.

The Long Island crew does the best this run which would be welcome news if it

verifies.

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