RedSky Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 18z GFS has to be a dry run blip right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 18z GFS has to be a dry run blip right?its not even that dry, it's just a lot more scattered with heavier totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 Dry begets dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 The surface low basically tracks over the Mid-Atlantic. I can not see all those heavy rains displaced as far North as what some models would have you believe. This is the warm season. The only mechanisms for broad-scale ascent are tilted north to coincide over upstate NY. The best PVA, mid-level fgn, and upper divergence are all up there... at least on the GFS. It's hard to overcome all that with a surface wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 its not even that dry, it's just a lot more scattered with heavier totals. The system over the middle of the country phases on the latest GFS run, and rides further north as a result. The ridge over you is pumped up a little more and sends the heaviest rain further north. Look at the 500mb chart. The upper low is quite vigorous over the southern Plains-it generated that hundreds-mile long squall line in TX last night and has been vigorous over N TX/OK/AR today. It makes sense that it might try to cut north as it interacts with another S/W over the central Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 The system over the middle of the country phases on the latest GFS run, and rides further north as a result. The ridge over you is pumped up a little more and sends the heaviest rain further north. Look at the 500mb chart. The upper low is quite vigorous over the southern Plains-it generated that hundreds-mile long squall line in TX last night and has been vigorous over N TX/OK/AR today. It makes sense that it might try to cut north as it interacts with another S/W over the central Plains. you can see what's happening here, models are now picking up on the stronger Atlantic ridge, stalling the front further north-sure we'll get some rains, but they will be showery at best and the big rains are going to be up in upstate NY, CNE and NNE. Seasonal trend of models going drier as we close in on a particular event continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 How far "upstate?". Mid Hudson Valley, just north of New Paltz, is where I need it not to be too wet. Gimme some good news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 How far "upstate?". Mid Hudson Valley, just north of New Paltz, is where I need it not to be too wet. Gimme some good news. Mediocrity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 Does the RGEM bias of being too amplified at 48hrs hold true during the warm season as well? If yes, then we have some room to shift Southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 you can see what's happening here, models are now picking up on the stronger Atlantic ridge, stalling the front further north-sure we'll get some rains, but they will be showery at best and the big rains are going to be up in upstate NY, CNE and NNE. Seasonal trend of models going drier as we close in on a particular event continues. Ehh, the flip side of that this time of year is the severe threat might be better and storms might pop up where models don't show it now (happened to me a few times this month, including the last 3 days). Watch the SPC outlooks to see how that might play out (I've definitely learned to refresh that site and check Mesoanalysis since moving down here). The usual caveat is Long Island, where onshore winds ruin whatever synoptic setup. The more westerly the boundary layer winds can be, the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 The 00z NAM is coming in south for Sunday now. Showers are in the area before sunrise. This is all just noise and it's going to be a lot of radar watching to try and figure out where all of this is going to end up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 Ehh, the flip side of that this time of year is the severe threat might be better and storms might pop up where models don't show it now (happened to me a few times this month, including the last 3 days). Watch the SPC outlooks to see how that might play out (I've definitely learned to refresh that site and check Mesoanalysis since moving down here). The usual caveat is Long Island, where onshore winds ruin whatever synoptic setup. The more westerly the boundary layer winds can be, the better. You want a 60 hour moderate to heavy rain event to morph into a 15 minute thunderstorm? No thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 The NAM actually has quite a bit of SBCAPE into the region on Sunday. Dew's are in the mid-upper 60's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 Currently partly cloudy and 65 degrees with a strong possibility of a Rangers loss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 Currently partly cloudy and 65 degrees with a strong possibility of a Rangers loss. ssshhhhh, you're going to ginx it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 Mediocrity. What am I missing? That looks like somewhere between 1-3" there between now and Tuesday morning. Hopefully most of it falls Saturday afternoon and then after 5pm Sunday. If not the rider that's best in the mud will win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 Currently partly cloudy and 65 degrees with a strong possibility of a Rangers loss. Oy vey, at MSG. Look at it this way, at least MSG will still be around next season, vs the Islanders having to become a Brooklyn team, and the Rangers making it this far in 2015, and the Finals last year. They played a hell of a series. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 Oy vey, at MSG. Look at it this way, at least MSG will still be around next season, vs the Islanders having to become a Brooklyn team, and the Rangers making it this far in 2015, and the Finals last year. They played a hell of a series. Same here. Partly cloudy and shutout. Onto next year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 Today's Highs TEB: 86 NYC: 85 EWR: 84 LGA: 82 JFK: 80 ISP: 79 New Brunswick: 84 TTN: 87 PHL: 87 ACY: 80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted May 30, 2015 Author Share Posted May 30, 2015 Today's Highs TEB: 86 NYC: 85 EWR: 84 LGA: 82 JFK: 80 ISP: 79 New Brunswick: 84 TTN: 87 PHL: 87 ACY: 80 Seems like 85 is NYC lucky number Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 Monthly Departures (thru 5/29) NYC: +6.0 (68.1) EWR: +5.4 (67.8) LGA: +4.3 (66.7) JFK:+3.4 (63.4) TTN: +5.4 (66.4) PhL: +5.9 (69.5) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 00z runs so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 Philly warmest mays monthly mean temps 1991: 70.8 2015: 69.5 (So far) 2004: 69.2 2012: 68.2 2010: 67.5 2011: 67.4 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Buffalo's warmest months of May on record (average temperature) Warmest - 1991 - 64.3°2nd place - 2012 - 63.8°3rd place - 1944 - 63.4°4th place - 1998 - 62.8°5th place - 2015* - 62.3° * as of midnight Friday. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Through today, the average temperature in Washington (as measured at Reagan National Airport) has been 72.75F*, roughly 7 degrees above normal. That is 0.7F above 2004’s value of 72.1F, which is in second place among the warmest Mays as of this date. 1991 ranks third, at 72.0F. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Warmest months of May in Syracuse Year Average temp Rank 1. 1911 64.7 1 2. 2015 (estimated) 64.5 3. 2012 64.3 4. 1944 63.3 5.1998/1975 62.9 6. 2011 62.8 7. 1991 62.7 8. 1962 62.3 9.. 1918 61.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 Thanks for those stats sacrus..here this month looks to finish just behind 1991 for warmest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 Updated through 5/29NYC climbing the list.Warmest Mays68.7...199168.1...2015...through 5/29 67.9...188067.0...1944/189666.4...1965/1959 Remaining one of the driest .30....1903 .34....1887 .40....2015 .57....1964 .62....1880 .72....1905 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 00z Euro was 1.50-2.50"+ with NNJ JP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 00z Euro was 1.50-2.50"+ with NNJ JP yea 6 z GFS crushed the area with rain. We are going to have serious ponding of water on the roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 Some clouds to deal with before bigger breaks by 11/noon (familiar theme) but temps +8 to +12 again today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 Isen/Yanksfan - we have purchased you first class tickets to Portland, ME with a return to OKC next weekend. Umbrella optional. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 Isen/Yanksfan - we have purchased you first class tickets to Portland, ME with a return to OKC next weekend. Umbrella optional. Road trip to Portland, ME Hotels are likely expensive this time of the year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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