Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

May 2015 Discussion & Observations


dmillz25

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

It's going to rain tomorrow.

with this wording from Upton, I'm not too enthused:

-

MODELS STILL SUGGEST THAT WITH BEST FORCING GOING TO THE N...THAT

ANY PRECIPITATION COULD BREAK UP AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON

TUESDAY...FOR THIS REASON HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE

CATEGORY...

-

however if the nam is right, maybe a few of us cash in...

-

HOWEVER...IF THE NAM IS CORRECT AND DO ACHIEVE SEVERAL HUNDRED

J/KG OF CAPE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS N/W INTERIOR ZONES THEN

COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS...AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM COULD

NOT BE 100 PERCENT RULED OUT IF THE NAM IS CORRECT.

THE NAM BEING CORRECT IS PREDICATED ON THERE BEING SOME EXTENSIVE

BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN SLOWER TIMING OF THE

FRONT...DID RAISE HIGHS...BUT NOT AS WARM AS THE NAM WOULD

SUGGEST. APPEARS LOW LEVELS SHOULD BE TOO MOIST TO SUPPORT

EXTENSIVE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AT THIS TIME.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

with this wording from Upton, I'm not too enthused:

-

MODELS STILL SUGGEST THAT WITH BEST FORCING GOING TO THE N...THAT

ANY PRECIPITATION COULD BREAK UP AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON

TUESDAY...FOR THIS REASON HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE

CATEGORY...

-

however if the nam is right, maybe a few of us cash in...

-

HOWEVER...IF THE NAM IS CORRECT AND DO ACHIEVE SEVERAL HUNDRED

J/KG OF CAPE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS N/W INTERIOR ZONES THEN

COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS...AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM COULD

NOT BE 100 PERCENT RULED OUT IF THE NAM IS CORRECT.

THE NAM BEING CORRECT IS PREDICATED ON THERE BEING SOME EXTENSIVE

BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN SLOWER TIMING OF THE

FRONT...DID RAISE HIGHS...BUT NOT AS WARM AS THE NAM WOULD

SUGGEST. APPEARS LOW LEVELS SHOULD BE TOO MOIST TO SUPPORT

EXTENSIVE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AT THIS TIME.

I agree, we need a good soaking up up here, a few showers aren't going to cut it, nor will a heavy downpour as most of it will simply run off.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We're going to be in a great spot for ring of fire convective activity as impulses rotate around the Bermuda ridge. I've been saying all along that this would be a dirty ridge. 06z GFS takes the tropical disturbance into South Carolina late this week and then rides northeast with gulf moisture thanks to the clockwise flow.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_31.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hasn't that tropical system been pushed back and back?   Seems like it's never any close than 7 days

It's been consistently showing up in the same time frame. It first started showing up a week ago and now we're inside of a 6 days on most guidance. 12z GFS has landfall Thursday night near Charleston. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...