SACRUS Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 NYC climbing the list. Warmest Mays 68.7...1991............................93 monthly high 67.9...1880 67.0...1944/1896 66.7...2015...through 5/25.....88 monthly high so far 66.4...1965/1959...................94....94 Departures thru 5/26 NYC: +5.5 EWR: +4.8 LGA: +3.9 JFK: +3.6 TTN: +4.8 PHL: +5.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 Is TEB still running too high? Yet to be determined. Yesterday was lower than EWR but today a bit higher but many staiotns in C/NE-NJ were 89 - 92 so in line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 hopefully it's right since there's another warm surge modeled for early june Guidance continues to show a pretty strong ridge into the east in early June (6/4), as you mention. So while the arid dryness should end, the above normal regime should continue as we see the WAR (Bermuda High( build west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 The CPC cut back a few shades of green over the next 6-14 day period even. But the above normal temp likelihood remained the same. Good beach weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 Yup. Right on cue. mt holly going drier. CUD BE SOME SHRA/TSRA LINGERING WED NIGHT. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MDLS AS TO AREAL COVERAGE AND HOW LONG ANY PRECIP LINGERS. HOWEVER, ALL GUID HAS TRENDED DRIER, AND SOMETIMES A PERSISTENCE FCST IS THE BEST APPROACH. THE NAM AND GFS ARE NOW VIRTUALLY DRY ON THU, WITH THE CMC AND ECMWF HAVING SOME PRECIP IN THE AFTN. AGAIN, THE TREND IS DRIER AND POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD. ON FRI, THE ECMWF HAS SOME PRECIP, WHILE THE GFS REMAINS DRY. THE CMC HAS SOME PRECIP AS WELL. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. NOT MANY TRIGGERS, EXCEPT FOR DAYTIME HEATING. SO CONTINUE THE TREND OF LOWERING POPS. THE NEXT FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH OVER THE WEEKEND. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE, THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. THE EC KEEPS SAT DRY, WHILE THE GFS BRINGS PRECIP IN LATE. BY SUN MRNG, THE GFS HAS THE FRONT THRU THE AREA, WHILE THE ECMWF TRIES TO DEVELOP A WAVE ON THE FRONT AND LINGER IT INTO EARLY MON. WHILE THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SLOWER WITH THE FRONT AND STALLING IT INVOF OUR AREA, THE 26/12Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED MARKEDLY DRIER WITH THE FCST BEYOND 12Z MON. IT IS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS. NOT SURE IF THIS IS A ONE MDL RUN CHANGE OR THE START OF A TREND, BUT HAVE BEGUN THE DOWNWARD PUSH ON POPS. IF THE ECMWF CONTINUES THIS TREND, POPS MAY BE ABLE TO BE ELIMINATED FOR PARTS OF EARLY NEXT WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 There's just an arid look when you go outside now. It's no longer that pure, luscious green you typically see in May. I wonder if all this rain talk turns out to be barely anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 Departures thru 5/26 NYC: +5.5 EWR: +4.8 LGA: +3.9 JFK: +3.6 TTN: +4.8 PHL: +5.3 Updated through 5/26 NYC climbing the list. Warmest Mays 68.7...1991 67.9...1880 67.2...2015...through 5/26 67.0...1944/1896 66.4...1965/1959 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 There's just an arid look when you go outside now. It's no longer that pure, luscious green you typically see in May. I wonder if all this rain talk turns out to be barely anything. Upton has removed the chance of rain entirely today here just 2 days after models showed alot of T-storm activity. And then just 30% for tomorrow before another 2-3 days of dry. Dry begets dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 Upton has removed the chance of rain entirely today here just 2 days after models showed alot of T-storm activity. And then just 30% for tomorrow before another 2-3 days of dry. Dry begets dry. Our best shot per the 0Z Euro for most locations to pick up widespread convection for the next 10 days will be Sunday into early Monday morning. The EPS rebuilds the ridge from around day 8 and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 The HRRR continues to be very wet here late this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 The HRRR continues to be very wet here late this afternoon The best chance will be over NNJ like the models have been showing for days now as the seabreeze will stabilize the atmosphere the further east you go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 The best chance will be over NNJ like the models have been showing for days now as the seabreeze will stabilize the atmosphere the further east you go. Yes, which is fine by me. The HRRR shows the line falling apart near the Hudson river but then some training occurs as storms rebuild around 02z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 Yes, which is fine by me. The HRRR shows the line falling apart near the Hudson river but then some training occurs as storms rebuild around 02z. The models have been hinting that some scattered convection May form further east tomorrow as the flow becomes more SW and the instability is greater over NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 Our best shot per the 0Z Euro for most locations to pick up widespread convection for the next 10 days will be Sunday into early Monday morning. The EPS rebuilds the ridge from around day 8 and beyond. Wow if it's right, that would be a warm/dry start to June. What a pattern the last 6 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 Wow if it's right, that would be a warm/dry start to June. What a pattern the last 6 weeks. Yeah, the EPS goes with above normal temps day 8-15 but not sure yet about rain chances beyond day 10 yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 decent batch of clouds in NYC down to SE PA and DC-wonder if that will ruin convection chances later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 decent batch of clouds in NYC down to SE PA and DC-wonder if that will ruin convection chances later some breaks in the last hour. But very cloudy through at least 11/12 for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 06z RGEM shows JP over central NNJ with almost nothing for NYC and LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 some breaks in the last hour. But very cloudy through at least 11/12 for sure. thin low clouds that will be vaporized by the late may sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 thin low clouds that will be vaporized by the late may sun Likely after 11/12. We'll see how much warming we can get after that and if EWR can nab a 3rd 90 in a row and feed some evening storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 The 12z NAM focuses one area of heavy storms over the northern LHV and then a secondary area which forms West of Philly and then moves Northeastward over NJ. It's been erratic though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 The 12z NAM focuses one area of heavy storms over the northern LHV and then a secondary area which forms West of Philly and then moves Northeastward over NJ. It's been erratic though. it did that last Tuesday as well...the action verified much further north on that particular day. Hopefully the clouds get out of the way and western areas have a shot today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 thin low clouds that will be vaporized by the late may sun That's what I always think but then they stick around and screw up severe weather chances in the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 The 12z GFS stalls the front over NJ on Thursday and Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 That's what I always think but then they stick around and screw up severe weather chances in the summer. they are hanging tough in some areas. On the edge here with in and out sun, but only 76 out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 Park dropped two degrees in the past hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 Finally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 some decent storms firing in S Central PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 12z GGEM is over an inch of rain today for most of NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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