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May 2015 Discussion & Observations


dmillz25

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The Euro continues with the best chance for widespread convection across the whole region

from Sunday into Sunday Night. It has quite a bit of training as the front is draped east-west.

that makes sense with a slow moving front pushing into the Bermuda high...

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The Euro continues with the best chance for widespread convection across the whole region

from Sunday into Sunday Night. It has quite a bit of training as the front is draped east-west.

hopefully it's right since there's another warm surge modeled for early june

D9.gif

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pop up hit or miss stuff or is it an organized line?

 

Looks like an organized line or batches or multicell clusters slowly sagging ESE as the front slows down

between the big high to north and south. Hopefully, it's onto something since it has carried this threat

for several days now.

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hopefully it's right since there's another warm surge modeled for early june

 

 

Yeah, at least over the next 10 days the Euro is painting Sunday into Sunday night as the best chance for widespread convection.

It would help our cause if that weak wave can develop on the tail end of the front as the Euro shows today.

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The 12z Euro is spitting out 2"+ over most of the region through 168 hours.

thats like saying we're getting 2 feet of snow the next two weeks. Lol rain will come as long as that frontal boundary moves east which is already starting to do that. You'll see how more humid tomorrow will be. Today was 88 at the park and it didn't really feel bad it felt nice, the sea breeze kicked in around 2 and now it's beautiful went down to 87. I think we'll get some morning showers tomorrow and it'll get pretty steamy in the afternoon!
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The important thing to notice is that the ECM has actually CUT BACK rainfall totals once again..  It would not surprise me if it cuts back even further...

that's been the theme of the spring.  Won't believe much until we're 72 hours out at least.  Need a good drink area wide.

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The important thing to notice is that the ECM has actually CUT BACK rainfall totals once again..  It would not surprise me if it cuts back even further...

That's actually completely false. The 00z ECMWF had less than 2" for anyone north of Rt. 78 through 240 hours while the 12z ECMWF now has 2"+ from TTN North just through day 6. Who cares what it shows beyond day 7 as it will change again next run. Terrible post.

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The problem is that most instances of precip will be convective so you're kind of keeping your fingers crossed the whole time.

One area could see 2"+ while the other is completely dry.

The problem is that it's been so dry lately that everyone is gun shy. The pattern is changing. Nobody is calling for a deluge, but 1-2" of rain this week will feel like one.

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Upto 89 here. Stayed sunny the whole day. Tomorrow more humid but suspect much more in the way of clouds.

The major stations honing in on May 1991.

 

NYC climbing the list.

 

Warmest Mays

 

68.7...1991............................93 monthly high

67.9...1880

67.0...1944/1896

66.7...2015...through 5/25.....88 monthly high so far

66.4...1965/1959...................94....94

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Upto 89 here. Stayed sunny the whole day. Tomorrow more humid but suspect much more in the way of clouds.

The major stations honing in on May 1991.

 

 

Near miss as well here; 89.3. Actually beautiful out right now, 77F with s southerly breeze and moderate dews.

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