bluewave Posted May 22, 2015 Share Posted May 22, 2015 Next week looks like a dirty warm up with debris clouds streaming NE from the record rainfall over TX and OK. This may limit the heating potential of the 16C 850s'. So we could see plenty of mid or upper 80's and maybe the first 90 for the warm spots if the clouds break long enough. The dewpoints should rebound back to around 60 and chances for convection look scattered at best. The persistent upper ridge builds again over the area as the weekend trough departs. The impressive El Nino for this time of year appears to be reinforcing the strong upper ridge pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 22, 2015 Share Posted May 22, 2015 My forecast low tonight is 45 =) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 22, 2015 Share Posted May 22, 2015 Next week looks like a dirty warm up with debris clouds streaming NE from the record rainfall over TX and OK. This may limit the heating potential of the 16C 850s'. So we could see plenty of mid or upper 80's and maybe the first 90 for the warm spots if the clouds break long enough. The dewpoints should rebound back to around 60 but chances for convection look scattered at best. Looks like some locales could have one of their driest May's on record. NYC, BDR, BDL and ORH are at less than an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 22, 2015 Share Posted May 22, 2015 Looks like some locales could have one of their driest May's on record. NYC, BDR, BDL and ORH are at less than an inch Yeah, NYC is at 0.32 and under an inch is possible should the best scattered convection miss the city like it did on Saturday. Anything 1.18 or less is top ten driest material for NYC in May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 22, 2015 Share Posted May 22, 2015 Woke up to a cool 52 here. Upper 40s tomorrow am? Should NYC have a low temperature below 50° (as indicated on the guidance), it would only be the 4th time that the temperature falls below 50° after May 20 in the 2010-present timeframe. There were 12 such occurrences in the 2000-09 period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted May 22, 2015 Share Posted May 22, 2015 Wait what's that shouting I hear...oh its just the Chamber of Commerce tooting from the rooftops informing us all of another top 10 day of the year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 22, 2015 Share Posted May 22, 2015 Wait what's that shouting I hear...oh its just the Chamber of Commerce tooting from the rooftops informing us all of another top 10 day of the year The doom and gloomers are running for their lives. Looks like a great weekend outside of beach/pool activities-90% dry today through Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted May 22, 2015 Share Posted May 22, 2015 Wait what's that shouting I hear...oh its just the Chamber of Commerce tooting from the rooftops informing us all of another top 10 day of the year You spend quite a lot of time on the internet for someone so enchanted by the endless joys of late spring. It is a nice, crisp day, though. Hopefully my gardens don't die tonight . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 22, 2015 Share Posted May 22, 2015 Winds starting to pick up now as we are mixed to near 700 mb. I can't remember another spring with so many soundings that looked like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 22, 2015 Share Posted May 22, 2015 monday has been trending warmer and drier as we get closer due to the warm front trending more NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 22, 2015 Share Posted May 22, 2015 Should NYC have a low temperature below 50° (as indicated on the guidance), it would only be the 4th time that the temperature falls below 50° after May 20 in the 2010-present timeframe. There were 12 such occurrences in the 2000-09 period. old guys like me remember May 25th, 1967 when the high for the day was 46 or 1963 with a low of 39 on the 24th...1961 had a max of 47 on the 27th with light rain...LGA reported ice pellets on the 27th, 1961... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted May 22, 2015 Share Posted May 22, 2015 This is rich. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 22, 2015 Share Posted May 22, 2015 These are gem days that will be few and far between once the heat & humidity kick in. It looks good through Sunday or even Monday for that matter. The main concern regarding the dry weather is the potential fire danger, but everything else will be okay (boring yes but not a major concern). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 22, 2015 Share Posted May 22, 2015 The power of El Nino... https://twitter.com/hashtag/txwx?src=hash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeWeatherGeek Posted May 22, 2015 Share Posted May 22, 2015 These are gem days that will be few and far between once the heat & humidity kick in. It looks good through Sunday or even Monday for that matter. The main concern regarding the dry weather is the potential fire danger, but everything else will be okay (boring yes but not a major concern).yes boring for us weather fiends but everyone enjoys it at the end of the day. Also snowski I noticed everyone including myself seems like we're in a better mood and friendlier when we have this amazing weather. I personally love this weather right next to a blizzard but yeah a blizzard is better for me. And I'm sure you too! Enjoy your long weekend everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted May 22, 2015 Author Share Posted May 22, 2015 Dt calling for 90s for a week start mid/late next week from what i saw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted May 22, 2015 Share Posted May 22, 2015 You spend quite a lot of time on the internet for someone so enchanted by the endless joys of late spring. Just working impressing the milfs It is a nice, crisp day, though. Hopefully my gardens don't die tonight . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 22, 2015 Share Posted May 22, 2015 Top 5 warmest and driest May very possible especially if those 90s materialize next week. Meanwhile record shattering rains are pounding parts of the plains, so things have been quite extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 22, 2015 Share Posted May 22, 2015 Dt calling for 90s for a week start mid/late next week from what i saw. prepare for cloudy and 80 at best then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 22, 2015 Share Posted May 22, 2015 The 12z Euro is really dry over the next 10 days. Any 90 degree reading potential shows up over CNJ/NNJ provided that there is enough sunshine to maximize the 16-17C 850's. Very strong seabreezes on LI with cooler temps. Thanks for the ECm updates bluewave. Much appreciated. Agree clouds the only real factor in limiting 90s next tue (5/26) - fri. 5/29) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 22, 2015 Share Posted May 22, 2015 what's the sample size for warm dry mays in second year mod/strong ninos? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted May 22, 2015 Share Posted May 22, 2015 what's the sample size for warm dry mays in second year mod/strong ninos? It simply never happened, no analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted May 22, 2015 Share Posted May 22, 2015 Looks like this year is shaping up as much different than last summer and thats a good thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 22, 2015 Share Posted May 22, 2015 Looks like this year is shaping up as much different than last summer and thats a good thing Last June was right at normal in both temp departures and precip. We'll see how it goes this year. Those hoping warm will be treated next week and hope it continues into June. Im rooting on a return to 2010-2013 heat personally but dont see prolonged or extreme heat as frequent as those years, yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 22, 2015 Share Posted May 22, 2015 what's the sample size for warm dry mays in second year mod/strong ninos? using the jma index 1896 would be the closest...temp was 67.0 with 2.51" of rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 22, 2015 Share Posted May 22, 2015 using the jma index 1896 would be the closest...temp was 67.0 with 2.51" of rain... '93 was very warm and dry 65.6 (1.56). And if werent for the .90 on May 31st the month would have had similar rainfall as this year. Enso a bit off but building nino none the less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 23, 2015 Share Posted May 23, 2015 looking at the warmest May's on record show... year.....90+..... 1991.....39.....hot 1880...............normal 1944.....37.....hot 1896...............hot 1965.....15.....cool 1959.....27.....hot 1986.....11.....cool 1975.......8.....cool 1993.....39.....hot 1980.....32.....hot 1964.....23.....cool 1955.....25.....hot 2010.....37.....hot 1985.......9.....cool 1979.....18.....normal 1969.....16.....normal 1942.....12.....cool Unc can you add precip to this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 23, 2015 Share Posted May 23, 2015 1991 68.7 (3.11) +6.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 23, 2015 Share Posted May 23, 2015 Personally I'm hoping for the hottest summer on record with a torrid July and August. I don't need none of that +1 stuff, let us burn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 23, 2015 Share Posted May 23, 2015 Island of cool in a sea of warmth. Tonight will be very brisk by late May standards. Already into the upper 50s with a low in the lower 40s looking likely here. The first half of Memorial Day weekend will feel like fall/mid spring rather than summer. Significant change by Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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