IsentropicLift Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 The GFS continues to show a pattern that would relax the ridge and allow more rain and convective chances into the area once past day 5. The GFS even sends a cane into the Carolinas during the first week of June. Obviously fantasy range but all signs point towards a more active pattern setting up for June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 Saturday continues to look very dry with temperatures in the 65-70 degree range and dewpoints only in the 20's. NEWARK KEWR GFS MOS GUIDANCE 5/21/2015 1200 UTC DT /MAY 21/MAY 22 /MAY 23 /MAY 24 HR 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12 N/X 49 76 45 68 52 TMP 56 56 55 52 51 51 56 69 74 73 66 58 51 47 51 60 65 67 64 56 59 DPT 40 41 43 45 45 44 45 42 37 32 29 28 27 27 28 25 23 25 30 38 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 The GFS continues to show a pattern that would relax the ridge and allow more rain and convective chances into the area once past day 5. The GFS even sends a cane into the Carolinas during the first week of June. Obviously fantasy range but all signs point towards a more active pattern setting up for June. The mid range models have sucked the past few months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 The mid range models have sucked the past few months. And fortunately past history or model performance has no impact on the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 despite the cool temps, Memorial day weekend looks great for everything except for pool and beach, but it's often too cool for those thing historically and especially with the early date this year. Goes back to a later date next year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 strong model agreement on next tuesday being our first 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 The 12z Euro only has some chances for scattered convection over the next 10 days with no obvious widespread soaker showing up yet. It will be interesting to see if NYC continues to miss the best convection and can finish May with under an inch of rainfall. NYC 0.32 so far tihis May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 The 12z Euro only has some chances for scattered convection over the next 10 days with no obvious widespread soaker showing up yet. It will be interesting to see if NYC continues to miss the best convection and can finish May with under an inch of rainfall. NYC 0.32 so far tihis May. I'm going with the GEFS which show a much more active pattern ensuing thanks to a more favorable positioning of the southeast ridge starting in about 6 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 I'm going with the GEFS which show a much more active pattern ensuing thanks to a more favorable positioning of the southeast ridge starting in about 6 days. The problem with the GFS this spring has been convective feedback. Whenever the Euro has disagreed and showed less rain it has been correct. I don't really trust model forecasts for rain beyond 120 hrs in a dry pattern without something obvious like a big cut off in the Ohio Valley or Great Lakes. But we'll see how things go since long range rainfall forecasting is lower skill beyond 120 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 The problem with the GFS this spring has been convective feedback. Whenever the Euro has disagreed and showed less rain it has been correct. I don't really trust model forecasts for rain beyond 120 hrs in a dry pattern without something obvious like a big cut off in the Ohio Valley or Great Lakes. But we'll see how things go since long range rainfall forecasting is lower skill beyond 120 hrs. Perhaps I should clarify. I'm not calling for widespread rainfall anytime soon, just a relaxing of the pattern which would allow for better chances. The prevailing southeast ridge has for the most part acted as the proverbial pond with storm systems and fronts acting as stones skipping off of it. The Euro also shows a relaxation, just not quite to the same extent as the most recent runs of the GFS. To put it simply, we should be entering into a more summery pattern with higher dew points and numerous chances of convection each day. Nothing extraordinary, but much more active than the last 30 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 One thing that I have noticed with the upgraded GFS is that the fantasy range has been a bit less fantasy this Spring. Take for example the phantom TC that the 12z GFS had at the end of its run. Nearly every 12z GEFS member has this system in some form at the end of its run. Don't be shocked if this system eventually comes to fruition. Ana first showed up 300+ hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 the best chance for rainfall over the next week is on monday with a warm front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 the best chance for rainfall over the next week is on monday with a warm front upton's only got 30% that day as well, then bone dry the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 The 12z Euro ensembles look closer to the GEFS. Wetter than the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 Getting some solid rain in Monmouth county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 Getting some solid rain in Monmouth county Meanwhile up here in Ramsey the sun is shining and we just have some scattered to broken clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 Getting some solid rain in Monmouth county Few hundredths? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 Few hundredths? Just about 0.10" now. Enough to water the parched land and wash some pollen off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 Can't buy warm season rain the last few seasons on the south shore. The rain has been constantly 5 miles south of the barrier islands and not budging. Reminds me of a much less harsh feb 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 I barely got sprinkles from this but it's been quite cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 Just some sprinkles here today with a cool high temp of 59 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 0.15" total. 0.71" for May and 2.01" in April. Very dry spring. Probably wouldn't have even needed to cut the grass more than once or twice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 NYC with first negative departures since May 1. A speed bump in a sea of warmth. 5/20: NYC: 67/54 (-3) EWR: 67/54 (-3) 5/21: NYC: 62/52 (-7) EWR:62/51 (-7) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeWeatherGeek Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 As far as next week getting to 90, i doubt it happens unless we get a thunderstorm around noon and clears up from 1pm-4pm really heating up the surface. I think Wednesday is our best shot again I doubt it'll happen but it's not impossible with all the humidity that's heading this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 As far as next week getting to 90, i doubt it happens unless we get a thunderstorm around noon and clears up from 1pm-4pm really heating up the surface. I think Wednesday is our best shot again I doubt it'll happen but it's not impossible with all the humidity that's heading this way. 90 looks very possible tue/wed. Clouds the only caveat in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted May 22, 2015 Share Posted May 22, 2015 As far as next week getting to 90, i doubt it happens unless we get a thunderstorm around noon and clears up from 1pm-4pm really heating up the surface. I think Wednesday is our best shot again I doubt it'll happen but it's not impossible with all the humidity that's heading this way. A midday thunderstorm is going to significantaly lower the potential high for the day. Not sure where you keep getting these wacky ideas. If you want 90 next week we want as few clouds and dews as low as possible with 850s torching. Weird today in the city as the subway has already heated up for the season so it was much much hotter down below Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted May 22, 2015 Share Posted May 22, 2015 NYC with first negative departures since May 1. A speed bump in a sea of warmth. 5/20: NYC: 67/54 (-3) EWR: 67/54 (-3) 5/21: NYC: 62/52 (-7) EWR:62/51 (-7) A few lovely days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 22, 2015 Share Posted May 22, 2015 52 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 22, 2015 Share Posted May 22, 2015 The cold front coming through tonight drops the dewpoints into the 20's on Saturday so the relative humidity is going to be very low. It will be another dry downslope day for this spring. NEWARK KEWR GFS MOS GUIDANCE 5/22/2015 0600 UTC DT /MAY 22 /MAY 23 / HR 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 X/N 77 44 67 TMP 60 68 75 74 67 59 52 46 51 59 64 67 DPT 45 42 38 34 31 30 28 26 26 23 23 26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted May 22, 2015 Author Share Posted May 22, 2015 Woke up to a cool 52 here. Upper 40s tomorrow am? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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