SACRUS Posted May 17, 2015 Share Posted May 17, 2015 Just imagine these departures in July, 2010 was way up there but +5 to +7 would be ridiculous. Well likely settle down around +3 to +4 for the month. Best normal right through Friday with warming by Sunday and Memorial Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 17, 2015 Share Posted May 17, 2015 Just imagine these departures in July, 2010 was way up there but +5 to +7 would be ridiculous.ewr was +5.1 and lga +5.7 in july 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 17, 2015 Share Posted May 17, 2015 The continued heavy rainfall potential over Texas and Oklahoma may lower our 95+ heat chances going into June since it's often a source region for major heat here. The Euro weeklies have a warmer than normal but not particularly hot looking pattern from the end of May into June. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/forecast-clues-into-midjune/47152765 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 17, 2015 Share Posted May 17, 2015 ewr was +5.1 and lga +5.7 in july 2010 I was thinking somewhere in the +4 range but it makes sense for those locales to have seen higher departures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 Today's Highs TEB: 85 NYC: 83 EWR: 84 LGA: 83 JFK: 81 ISP: 82 New Brunswick: 87 TTN: 82 PHL: 84 ACY: 87 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 Felt a lot warmer than 81 degrees here in Brooklyn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 The continued heavy rainfall potential over Texas and Oklahoma may lower our 95+ heat chances going into June since it's often a source region for major heat here. The Euro weeklies have a warmer than normal but not particularly hot looking pattern from the end of May into June. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/forecast-clues-into-midjune/47152765 Will be interesting - in 2013 the WAR retrograding west and hooking with the rockies ridge did the trick. 2010, 11, 12 the heat source from the then mid west/plains drought. 1993 was very wet in the mid section but not so much in Tex/ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 ECM/Canadian most persistent with some higher heights and strong riding on/around Memorial Day (5/25) - 5/27 or 28th. Overall drier theme through then and beyong on most guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 Will be interesting - in 2013 the WAR retrograding west and hooking with the rockies ridge did the trick. 2010, 11, 12 the heat source from the then mid west/plains drought. 1993 was very wet in the mid section but not so much in Tex/ok. Yeah, it will be interesting to see. The current round of long range models into June never really let the WAR build back far enough to tap warmer temps further west. The persistent low pressure with the trough and rains over the Southern Plains seems to get in the way of this process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted May 18, 2015 Author Share Posted May 18, 2015 Back door cold front in effect its cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 locked into the upper 50's here...yesterday's 80's seems like a distance memory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 12z NAM has 0.50"+ tomorrow over a large portion of the area. Pretty good round of convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 58 here. It was really nice to sleep with the window open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 12z NAM has 0.50"+ tomorrow over a large portion of the area. Pretty good round of convection. is it 2 rounds or one extended one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 is it 2 rounds or one extended one? One pretty good round Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeWeatherGeek Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 I'm back after being banned for a week. I love this weather finally got some much needed rain. Watch for some heavy rain tomorrow morning possibly severe thunderstorms. Than a whole 5 days of beautiful weather enjoy it everyone! Edit: there are some nasty thunderstorms developing possibly reaching severe level just west of New Jersey. Let's see how far east they make it. Thinking is they are developing there because the sun is out and here we have cloudy skies so I doubt they make it here unless this fog/clouds burn off! Should be fun tracking them today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 Yeah, it will be interesting to see. The current round of long range models into June never really let the WAR build back far enough to tap warmer temps further west. The persistent low pressure with the trough and rains over the Southern Plains seems to get in the way of this process. We also have a big -EPO/AK ridge pattern which keeps the Hudson Bay vortex far enough south to mute the SE ridge...you see this the most in the GFS forecast where heights are just average here despite a ridge to the south because we have a strong ULL to the north over Quebec/Hudson Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 I'm back after being banned for a week. I love this weather finally got some much needed rain. Watch for some heavy rain tomorrow morning possibly severe thunderstorms. Than a whole 5 days of beautiful weather enjoy it everyone! Edit: there are some nasty thunderstorms developing possibly reaching severe level just west of New Jersey. Let's see how far east they make it. Thinking is they are developing there because the sun is out and here we have cloudy skies so I doubt they make it here unless this fog/clouds burn off! Should be fun tracking them today! That activity is well forecasted to hit the brick wall known as the backdoor cold front and stall too far West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 We also have a big -EPO/AK ridge pattern which keeps the Hudson Bay vortex far enough south to mute the SE ridge...you see this the most in the GFS forecast where heights are just average here despite a ridge to the south because we have a strong ULL to the north over Quebec/Hudson Bay. That big -EPO spike probably means that portions of the interior Northeast could see a frost or maybe a freeze Saturday later this week into Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 That big -EPO spike probably means that portions of the interior Northeast could see a frost and freeze later this week into Saturday. I was just mentioning in the New England thread that our vacation house in extreme NE Pennsylvania may see a frost on Saturday morning. It's at 1560' in a lake valley, surrounding by ridges in the 1800-1900' range..highest peaks are like 2400'. They had a frost during the last cold shot, and am expecting one this time around...Thicknesses approach 534dam with 850s of 0C and potent high pressure overhead. The forecast low is 37F at this moment, but with models showing a stronger reinforcing cold shot on Friday evening after the initial cold air advection tomorrow night, I expect the actual low for Lake Como PA to be 33-34F... Dobbs Ferry has a projected low of 51F on Saturday morning with the only 40s on Thursday morning. I'm actually expecting Saturday to be a bit chiller than Thursday around here as well...should get down top 46-48F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 I was just mentioning in the New England thread that our vacation house in extreme NE Pennsylvania may see a frost on Saturday morning. It's at 1560' in a lake valley, surrounding by ridges in the 1800-1900' range..highest peaks are like 2400'. They had a frost during the last cold shot, and am expecting one this time around...Thicknesses approach 534dam with 850s of 0C and potent high pressure overhead. The forecast low is 37F at this moment, but with models showing a stronger reinforcing cold shot on Friday evening after the initial cold air advection tomorrow night, I expect the actual low for Lake Como PA to be 33-34F... Dobbs Ferry has a projected low of 51F on Saturday morning with the only 40s on Thursday morning. I'm actually expecting Saturday to be a bit chiller than Thursday around here as well...should get down top 46-48F. The key may be the arrival of the high pressure center coinciding with the Saturday morning lows. There could be some impressive radiational cooling should the winds go calm. The Euro and DGEX aren't as bullish as the GFS is so we'll see how it goes when we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 Hi temp here today of 69 occured at midnight...temp at around 59 during day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted May 18, 2015 Author Share Posted May 18, 2015 After a high of 89 here yesterday, a midnight high of 75 and now its been stuck in the low 60s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 After a high of 89 here yesterday, a midnight high of 75 and now its been stuck in the low 60sDo you have a pws at your residence or do you use a neighboring station? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 After a high of 89 here yesterday, a midnight high of 75 and now its been stuck in the low 60s couldn't even do that here. upper 50's all day and the clearing remained to our east. Amazing day to day difference from yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted May 18, 2015 Author Share Posted May 18, 2015 Do you have a pws at your residence or do you use a neighboring station? I use a neighboring station. But i dont think 89 was an actual high here maybe 85 give or take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted May 18, 2015 Author Share Posted May 18, 2015 couldn't even do that here. upper 50's all day and the clearing remained to our east. Amazing day to day difference from yesterday Yeah pretty dramatic difference and tomorrow is going to be in the 70s with a chance of thunderstorms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 The key may be the arrival of the high pressure center coinciding with the Saturday morning lows. There could be some impressive radiational cooling should the winds go calm. The Euro and DGEX aren't as bullish as the GFS is so we'll see how it goes when we get closer. 12z ECM does push the 0C 850 contour south of here, but briefly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 I use a neighboring station. But i dont think 89 was an actual high here maybe 85 give or take. Yeah if your using weather underground, you have to weed out some of the bad stations...unfortunately there are more and more poorly designed and improperly sited stations coming online there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted May 18, 2015 Author Share Posted May 18, 2015 Yeah if your using weather underground, you have to weed out some of the bad stations...unfortunately there are more and more poorly designed and improperly sited stations coming online there. Yeah i've noticed. There's one in LIC that's especially bad. Sometimes its 10 12 degrees warmer than surrounding stationS and I'm like there's no way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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