Isotherm Posted May 13, 2015 Share Posted May 13, 2015 Its only been dry for 6 weeks...I find the dry talk and the overeagerness to predict a flip to wet sort of humorous. Some of you got too comfortable with deluges and wet springs and summers that you get befuddled at a below normal period whixh could last months not weeks Can you provide meteorological reasoning for your assertion of a continued dry regime, rather than labeling anyone who makes a forecast as "eager" or "humorous"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 13, 2015 Share Posted May 13, 2015 Can you provide meteorological reasoning for your assertion of a continued dry regime, rather than labeling anyone who makes a forecast as "eager" or "humorous"? That would require actual thought. The 12z Euro develops a large ULL southeast of Maine next week which helps to reinforce the ridge and keep us mostly dry. It's amazing that even when we're in patterns or setups that generally produce significant rainfall, they have failed to do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 13, 2015 Share Posted May 13, 2015 this drought is a drop in the bucket so to speak compared to the one from 1962 to 1966...there is always a deluge lurking around the corner during a dry spell...if this area ever gets another drought like 1965 again it would be twice as bad due to twice as much water being used now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 13, 2015 Share Posted May 13, 2015 this drought is a drop in the bucket so to speak compared to the one from 1962 to 1966...there is always a deluge lurking around the corner during a dry spell...if this area ever gets another drought like 1965 again it would be twice as bad due to twice as much water being used now... We moved into a much wetter period after that historic drought ended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 13, 2015 Share Posted May 13, 2015 Need to get the Rgem in range, but Saturday looks like a heavy training rain type of day for NJ and NYC/LI with some spots picking up more then an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 13, 2015 Share Posted May 13, 2015 NYC will be fine with rain. There's been plenty of precipitation so far this year, the reservoirs are fine and STJ heavy patterns often produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted May 13, 2015 Share Posted May 13, 2015 NYC will be fine with rain. There's been plenty of precipitation so far this year, the reservoirs are fine and STJ heavy patterns often produce. Long term for sure. It's these short term dry periods were we don't rain a month at a time that can crush newly planted, plants. That's the only real concern. Can you imagine if 33% of the fully established trees in Central Park died? That happened in Huston a couple years ago. Now that's real drought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted May 13, 2015 Share Posted May 13, 2015 Can you provide meteorological reasoning for your assertion of a continued dry regime, rather than labeling anyone who makes a forecast as "eager" or "humorous"? Im not claiming to know what will happen...I am respondinf to Yanksfan saying because its been dry it has to get wet to balance it out....its only been dry for 6 weeks it could easily stay dry longer...the last decade has seen a wet period but that could change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted May 14, 2015 Share Posted May 14, 2015 Can readily see my breath outdoors, this evening. Savor it my friends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 14, 2015 Share Posted May 14, 2015 Cooldown 5/13: NYC: 70/55 (+1) EWR: 71/55 (+1) LGA: 67/55 (-1) JFK: 73/59 (+6) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 14, 2015 Share Posted May 14, 2015 While this is turning out to be a very warm may so far, there still is no sign yet in the models of any major heat (95+) on the immediate horizon. Newark is running at +6.7 so far with a high for the month at 88 degrees. The very warm may 2010 ran +3.5 at Newark with a monthly high of 95 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 14, 2015 Share Posted May 14, 2015 52 outside. Love this weather =) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 14, 2015 Share Posted May 14, 2015 Was down to 44 this morning. Dryness and pollen are combining for some great times... 80s look to return this weekend pending on storms and clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 14, 2015 Share Posted May 14, 2015 While this is turning out to be a very warm may so far, there still is no sign yet in the models of any major heat (95+) on the immediate horizon. Newark is running at +6.7 so far with a high for the month at 88 degrees. The very warm may 2010 ran +3.5 at Newark with a monthly high of 95 degrees. Tuesday was the chance for 90+ but clouds got in the way and Ana skewed things on Monday. Some hint at stronger rurging on/around may 25 and beyond period. Perhaps the next shot at 90s then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 14, 2015 Share Posted May 14, 2015 I think most of Saturday is salvaged. Sprinkles or light showers early, then clearing and possible boomers during the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 14, 2015 Share Posted May 14, 2015 I think most of Saturday is salvaged. Sprinkles or light showers early, then clearing and possible boomers during the evening. Localized spots can get some much needed rainfall later Saturday since the convection will be slow moving. But I am not really sure at this point who may be the potential winners or losers. Longer range there may be some hope to ease the drier conditions a bit as the models finally flatten out the ridge over the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 14, 2015 Share Posted May 14, 2015 Some localized spots can get some much needed rainfall later Saturday since the convection will be slow moving. But I am not really sure at this point who may be the potential winners or losers. I almost guarantee you that it will be Flushing Queens since I'll be at Citi Field that night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 14, 2015 Share Posted May 14, 2015 Saturday is the day to get rain. The setup to me screams training rain showers and convection in the PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 14, 2015 Share Posted May 14, 2015 Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted May 14, 2015 Share Posted May 14, 2015 What a fantastic day today. A classic Chamber of Commerce Top 10 day. Golden sunshine azure blue skies temps in the 70's. Go out and enjoy it weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 14, 2015 Share Posted May 14, 2015 What a fantastic day today. A classic Chamber of Commerce Top 10 day. Golden sunshine azure blue skies temps in the 70's. Go out and enjoy it weenies Went out for lunch and I have to agree with you that it was a stellar day, however I thought the only weather you enjoyed was excessive heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted May 14, 2015 Share Posted May 14, 2015 Went out for lunch and I have to agree with you that it was a stellar day, however I thought the only weather you enjoyed was excessive heat. I think he just enjoys pontificating in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted May 14, 2015 Share Posted May 14, 2015 I like all nice weather..prefer hot but nothing wrong with pleasant in May. I would not want this weather in July Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted May 14, 2015 Share Posted May 14, 2015 Park up to 73. Struggling to get a below-average day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 14, 2015 Share Posted May 14, 2015 having a mean ridge to your NW is unfavorable for rainfall. the gfes and eps change this over the next week to ten days. a se ridge would open the door to wet systems from the sw us/gulf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 14, 2015 Share Posted May 14, 2015 having a mean ridge to your NW is unfavorable for rainfall. the gfes and eps change this over the next week to ten days. comphour.31wTQzvHu5.gif a se ridge would open the door to wet systems from the sw us/gulf Yeah, that's what I mentioned earlier. There is a good ensemble signal for the ridge to flatten out and allow more chances for rain than we saw during the first half of May and late April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 15, 2015 Share Posted May 15, 2015 Yeah, that's what I mentioned earlier. There is a good ensemble signal for the ridge to flatten out and allow more chances for rain than we saw during the first half of May and late April. 12z ECM and ECM ENS also showed a relatively cool second half of May, with a sharp cooldown next week that brings -4C 850s into New England. Look as if the last part of May will be wetter and more normal for temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 15, 2015 Share Posted May 15, 2015 Cooldown 5/13: NYC: 70/554(+1) EWR: 71/54 (+1) LGA: 67/55 (-1) JFK: 73/59 (+6) TTN: 72/50 (+1) 5/14: NYC: 73/50 (+0) EWR: 74/50 (+0) :GA: 72/52 (+0) JFK: 71/51 (+1) TTN: 71/46 (-2) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 15, 2015 Share Posted May 15, 2015 Pending on clouds and storms this weekend will push +6 to +10 departures with temps in the 80s (especially Sunday). Monday goes back to normal/below with another cool down Wed-Fri next week (5/20 - 5/22). Memorial Day weekend looks good on the longer range warming by Memorial Day with guidance hinting at stronger ridging and warmth on/around 5/25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 15, 2015 Share Posted May 15, 2015 So the cool down is barely normal temperatures. We going back above today and well above this weekend. Incredibly warm month thus far with a lot more to come. I do hope we manage to get some rain this weekend to at the very least alleviate those allergies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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