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May 2015 Discussion & Observations


dmillz25

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Already up to 80F by 11, I think 90F is very likely.

definitely not happening in Central Park. 86 possible but nothing more than that. The humidity levels are dropping and the winds will increase by the hour now so I doubt we get anything above 86 maybe Newark may hit 89. Also this weekend I think we will get rain! Half an inch is possible we really need it!
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definitely not happening in Central Park. 86 possible but nothing more than that. The humidity levels are dropping and the winds will increase by the hour now so I doubt we get anything above 86 maybe Newark may hit 89. Also this weekend I think we will get rain! Half an inch is possible we really need it!

Wouldn't that do the opposite and help increase the temps. Its already 80 at the park. 90 might happen. 88 seems likely

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Agreed ,

 

We look good through Sat .  Will worry about Sunday  in a day or 2 .

 

Yeah, it's been a persistent El Ninoish ridge over the area with the best rains south and west where the STJ moisture

feed has been setting up. Classic ridge to the north getting undercut by troughing south that we see

in El Nino patterns.

 

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Spin it anyway you want. I think Saturday has a chance of being a washout if the front stalls in the right spot.

Big if.  If it stalls well to the north, we're not seeing much of anything and then another warm/dry stretch commences. You can see on the GFS how it could miss to the north. 

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It's highly unlikely that this dry / very dry pattern persists in the longer-term given the emerging/strengthening El Nino. I don't see any near-term signs of a shift to a wetter than normal pattern, although we'll probably get some precipitation over the next week. If the current CFS V2 is correct, the wet regime over the Plains will persist and spread to the East Coast for the month of June. It was fairly accurate with the Northeast US dry signal for May from the April forecast.

 

May forecast from April:

 

summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201505.gif

 

 

 

 

Current June forecast:

 

 

CFSv2.NaPrec.20150512.201506.gif

 

 

 

 

Temperatures are forecasted cooler than this month relative to normal, but still near/slightly above normal.

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