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May 2015 Discussion & Observations


dmillz25

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Expect an all day washout then!   Agree, no rain on weekends. 

The 12z Euro has well over an inch of rain, I'll believe it when I see it

 

As you know I am not a Mets fan, but they have a bark in the park day where you can bring your dog and then you can parade them around the field. Pretty cool.

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Too hot? It was perfect out. What will you do during Summer? Lol

lol I will try to stay indoors as much as possible with the air conditioning on blast. It wasn't perfect last night was miserable my thermometer was at 72 degrees at midnight with humidity in the high 80's. This morning is okay but you can tell that humidity is lifting cause it did drop to lower 70's. Currently 68 in my neighborhood going to work! Ah and no yesterday wasn't perfect. Perfect is 79 with low humidity and a low of 63.. Enjoy your day Nick the tink!

Sent from my iPhone

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Too hot? It was perfect out. What will you do during Summer? Lol

The fact is it's 6-8F above normal for the month thus far which is quite remarkable actually. It's simply way too early for this type of heat and we're not used to it.

This month has to finish top 5 warmest unless the second half cools significantly. Last time I looked, we are still likely to be above normal for most of the 2nd half though probably not quite as much as these past 10 days.

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It looks like we're going to finally see some widespread rainfall this weekend, although poorly timed, it is much needed. The Euro is a bit more South into C NJ while the GGEM and GFS are a bit North more into Upstate NY and NE. Split the difference and we're right in the highest impact zone.

 

You could see how the 0Z Euro backed off the 12z run already so its anyone's guess how much rain actually verifies.

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We get it.  :deadhorse:

if  you forecast based on persistence, you're only wrong once!   haha.  Still waiting for your "dirty ridge"    I'm with you now, rooting for some rain.   Seems like we've had a few dry April and early Mays last few years.   Given our climo, we're likely to see a wet period soon. 

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if  you forecast based on persistence, you're only wrong once!   haha.  Still waiting for your "dirty ridge"    I'm with you now, rooting for some rain.   Seems like we've had a few dry April and early Mays last few years.   Given our climo, we're likely to see a wet period soon. 

Plenty of rain chances on the Euro and GFS once you get into the end of this week and beyond.

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Spin it anyway you want. I think Saturday has a chance of being a washout if the front stalls in the right spot.

 

I am not trying to spin anything. All the downslope rain forecasts going back to April have underperformed long

range model forecasts. It's going to take some luck to get that moisture coming over the top of the ridge on

Saturday to produce anything meaningful.

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I am not trying to spin anything. All the downslope rain forecasts going back to April have underperformed long

range model forecasts. It's going to take some luck to get that moisture coming over the top of the ridge on

Saturday to produce anything meaningful.

I agree. Some people on here call for a washout 5 days away for weeks now and it never happens.

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I am not trying to spin anything. All the downslope rain forecasts going back to April have underperformed long

range model forecasts. It's going to take some luck to get that moisture coming over the top of the ridge on

Saturday to produce anything meaningful.

Agreed ,

 

We look good through Sat .  Will worry about Sunday  in a day or 2 .gfs_apcpn_eus_18.pnggem_apcpn_eus_19.png

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