dmillz25 Posted April 25, 2015 Share Posted April 25, 2015 Because May is 5 days away. Looks like after the first couple days temperatures will go above normal after May 4 for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted April 28, 2015 Author Share Posted April 28, 2015 Anything for May should be posted here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 29, 2015 Share Posted April 29, 2015 The CFS is going for above normal May temperatures here making it the second warm May in a row. We'll see if it turns out warm enough to make it the warmest month of spring like we saw in 2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted April 29, 2015 Author Share Posted April 29, 2015 The CFS is going for above normal May temperatures here making it the second warm May in a row. We'll see if it turns out warm enough to make it the warmest month of spring like we saw in 2014. CFSv2.NaT2m.20150428.201505.gif Hopefully this translates to some good summer heat come JJA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 29, 2015 Share Posted April 29, 2015 What about precip? Typical moderate El Nino would be below normal precip in the Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 29, 2015 Share Posted April 29, 2015 May Average Temperature and precipitation for KNYC...decade....temp...high...low.....max/min temp ave/max/min/90+days/ ave precipitation...1870's....60.3...63.3...58.8....................................................2.......2.50"1880's....61.3...67.9...56.6......96......35......87.2......40.9.........6.......3.07"1890's....60.8...67.0...57.8......96......32......85.7......41.6.........6.......3.67"1900's....60.7...63.4...56.2......90......37......86.6......41.5.........2.......3.41"1910's....61.5...65.3...54.3......95......36......86.8......41.7.........4.......3.39"1920's....60.2...64.6...57.3......93......37......84.2......41.5.........2.......3.59"1930's....63.0...64.9...59.9......96......40......90.5......43.5.......19.......3.23"1940's....62.5...67.0...59.2......96......35......88.8......42.7.........8.......4.52" trace of snow in 19461950's....61.9...66.4...58.7......94......38......87.2......41.7.........6.......3.29"1960's....62.2...66.4...55.2......99......36......88.3......41.6.......11.......3.02"1970's....62.7...65.8...59.5......94......36......89.0......41.1.......10.......5.00" trace of snow in 19771980's....63.6...66.0...60.2......97......41......88.0......43.7.......10.......4.39"1990's....62.7...68.7...59.4......96......40......89.4......44.0.......11.......4.16"2000's....62.2...65.2...58.7......93......41......86.2......43.4.........8.......3.66"2010's....64.3...65.3...62.8......92......41......89.2......45.4.........3.......5.17" 2010-141870-2009......61.8...65.9...58.0.........................87.5......42.2.........8.......3.64"1980-2009..... 62.8...66.6...59.4.........................87.9......43.7.......10.......4.07"warmest.........coolest...........wettest............driest......68.7 in 1991...54.3 in 1917...10.24" in 1989...0.30" in 190367.9 in 1880...55.2 in 1967.....9.74" in 1984...0.34" in 188767.0 in 1944...55.2 in 1907.....9.15" in 1978...0.57" in 196467.0 in 1896...56.6 in 1882.....9.10" in 1990...0.62" in 188066.4 in 1965...57.3 in 1924.....8.51" in 1908...0.72" in 190566.4 in 1959...57.4 in 1901.....8.39" in 1972...0.89" in 193966.0 in 1986...57.7 in 1869.....8.00" in 2013...0.95" in 187765.8 in 1975...57.8 in 1891.....7.61" in 1940...1.05" in 193565.7 in 1993...58.0 in 1888.....7.58" in 1948...1.09" in 189965.6 in 1980...58.2 in 1893.....7.06" in 1968...1.18" in 1944warmest temperatures...99 5/19/196297 5/29/196997 5/30/198796 5/20/199696 5/22/194196 5/27/188096 5/29/198796 5/31/189595 5/25/188095 5/26/188095 5/27/1914coldest temperatures...32 5/06/189134 5/05/189135 5/01/188035 5/09/194736 5/11/191336 5/10/196636 5/10/194736 5/09/197736 5/03/187436 5/01/1876coldest max days...43 5/3/187343 5/5/189144 5/7/196744 5/5/191744 5/9/197745 5/1/191745 5/2/196245 5/5/197845 5/6/189146 5/25/1967+warmest min. days...76 5/31/198775 5/31/189574 5/09/200074 5/20/199674 5/27/190874 5/29/196974 5/30/198773 5/25/188073 5/28/195973 5/30/1986+Warmest monthly minimum... 49 in 201449 in 201249 in 198248 in 189948 in 191047 in 194247 in 194447 in 196947 in 199146 in 201146 in 200046 in 1999 + =and other years...coldest monthly maximum...75 in 192479 in 200579 in 200379 in 198379 in 192879 in 192779 in 191580 in 196880 in 1882 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 29, 2015 Share Posted April 29, 2015 Dirty ridge next week and the GFS/GGEM and even the ECMWF all have some type of tropical disturbance near the southeast coast late next week. 00z GGEM brings the remnance up here day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted April 29, 2015 Share Posted April 29, 2015 The CFS and Euro weeklies place the highest rainfall chances across the southern part of the country like we saw in April associated with the developing El Nino and more active STJ. The other feature that stands out in the weeklies is the -EPO reload later in May. If this is correct, it may mean that the warmth relative to the means is greater for the first half of the month than the second. So we'll see if the greatest warm departure days for May relative to the means will be front-loaded between May 1-15th. https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2015/04/27/82-degrees-monday-warmest-this-year/ That deep into the warm season insulation will make it hard for temps to be that much below normal even on a NW flow. Honesty I say bring it. We have done so well at the coast with the water temps we were and are facing. A south wind is brutal right now. Just look at the late afternoon obs yesterday when the wind went onshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 29, 2015 Share Posted April 29, 2015 That deep into the warm season insulation will make it hard for temps to be that much below normal even on a NW flow. Honesty I say bring it. We have done so well at the coast with the water temps we were and are facing. A south wind is brutal right now. Just look at the late afternoon obs yesterday when the wind went onshore. The drier conditions we have been experiencing help warm us with the lower dewpoints on the downslope days. We have seen a number of very deep mixing days really drying things out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 29, 2015 Share Posted April 29, 2015 The drier conditions we have been experiencing help warm us with the lower dewpoints on the downslope days. We have seen a number of very deep mixing days really drying things out here. Agreed. We are seeing the same thing today too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 29, 2015 Share Posted April 29, 2015 It looks like an absolute furnace setting up for May. I think we'll see +4 or better departures as the first week alone will bring well above normal temperatures. I want to see heat records shattered. If it's gonna get hot, then I want mega record heat boiling the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted April 29, 2015 Share Posted April 29, 2015 Preach it brother Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted April 29, 2015 Share Posted April 29, 2015 It looks like an absolute furnace setting up for May. I think we'll see +4 or better departures as the first week alone will bring well above normal temperatures. I want to see heat records shattered. If it's gonna get hot, then I want mega record heat boiling the ground. Not me - not trusting forecasts that far out. Just been a couple nice weeks of spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 29, 2015 Share Posted April 29, 2015 Not sure if this feature is purely warm core or not but the 12z GFS is once again showing a low pressure system off the southeast coast next week. The low originates from convection North of Cuba this weekend. The low then drifts North under the ridge in relatively weak stirring currents, essentially cut off with the Westerlies displaced well to the NW. Finally, after five days the system gets picked up and carried off to the Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 29, 2015 Share Posted April 29, 2015 Agreed. We are seeing the same thing today too. Yeah, today is the same warm downslope pattern drying things out and temps easily beating guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 29, 2015 Share Posted April 29, 2015 GGEM likes the tropical system as well. Ends up making a left hand hook into the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted April 29, 2015 Share Posted April 29, 2015 Not sure if this feature is purely warm core or not but the 12z GFS is once again showing a low pressure system off the southeast coast next week. The low originates from convection North of Cuba this weekend. The low then drifts North under the ridge in relatively weak stirring currents, essentially cut off with the Westerlies displaced well to the NW. Finally, after five days the system gets picked up and carried off to the Northeast. But not before combining with a cold-core low pressure system and slamming onshore onto the Jersey shore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted April 29, 2015 Share Posted April 29, 2015 GGEM likes the tropical system as well. Ends up making a left hand hook into the coast Just a little bit more north! I haven't seen the PATH system flooded in 3 years! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted April 30, 2015 Author Share Posted April 30, 2015 Looks like low to mid 80s for us on Tuesday but with a cost. Hopefully the storms hold off because its my birthday Tuesday lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 30, 2015 Share Posted April 30, 2015 Looks like low to mid 80s for us on Tuesday but with a cost. Hopefully the storms hold off because its my birthday Tuesday lol A dirty ridge has been pretty well advertised for days now. The jet will be over the Ohio Valley and then spilling over the top of the ridge, and then you have whatever ends up brewing down in the Caribbean trying to come North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted April 30, 2015 Author Share Posted April 30, 2015 A dirty ridge has been pretty well advertised for days now. The jet will be over the Ohio Valley and then spilling over the top of the ridge, and then you have whatever ends up brewing down in the Caribbean trying to come North. Nice i would like to see a tropical system come up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted May 1, 2015 Share Posted May 1, 2015 Any updates this morning about the potential coastal/hybrid next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 1, 2015 Share Posted May 1, 2015 Any updates this morning about the potential coastal/hybrid next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted May 1, 2015 Share Posted May 1, 2015 May the 1st be with you.... or something along those lines. It's not that bad out today. We salvage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 1, 2015 Share Posted May 1, 2015 May the 1st be with you.... or something along those lines. It's not that bad out today. We salvage. might be the coolest day of the next week. 52 here right now and mostly cloudy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted May 1, 2015 Share Posted May 1, 2015 Thinking it could be a good weekend to put the vegetable garden in. THE OTHER THING WORTH NOTING IN THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL TOREACH THE 80 DEGREE MARK IN NYC SUN AND/OR MON. MON LOOKS LIKE THEBETTER CHANCE WITH HEIGHTS ALOFT AROUND 577DM. THE REMAINDER OF THEPERIOD LOOKS DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH HIGH PRES INCONTROL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted May 1, 2015 Share Posted May 1, 2015 Today may be the coolest day until late September...enjoy the ride to summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted May 1, 2015 Share Posted May 1, 2015 Today may be the coolest day until late September...enjoy the ride to summer You'll convince yourself of that in due time, I'm sure. You've gotta believe. It's not enough to simply type it—you have to own it. Just a few degrees BN here; not terrible by any means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 1, 2015 Share Posted May 1, 2015 12z GGEM is 991mb over OBX next Friday. Comes due North from near Miami, then gets pushed East from there. 12z GFS meanders the system off the southeast coast for a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 1, 2015 Share Posted May 1, 2015 12z GGEM is 991mb over OBX next Friday. Comes due North from near Miami, then gets pushed East from there. 12z GFS meanders the system off the southeast coast for a week. Looks like we stay dry for the forseeable future...pollen counts are going to be awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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