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Severe Potential: April 26-27, 2015


1900hurricane

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Latest MD 

 

 

 

DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER/ELEVATED
CONVECTION WAS DRAWN FROM WILLIAMSON COUNTY NWWD INTO SUPERCELL
APCHG BROWN/CALLAHAN COUNTY LINE...AND MAY EXTEND FARTHER NW TOWARD
TOWARD SUPERCELL APCHG NRN SHACKLEFORD COUNTY. THIS BOUNDARY WAS
MOVING NEWD ABOUT 15-20 KT...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING SUPERCELLS TO HAVE
LONG RESIDENCE TIME WITH THIS BOUNDARY. ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL
VORTICITY MAY ENHANCE MESOCYCLONE STRENGTH/TORNADO POTENTIAL FOR
THOSE STORMS OR ANY OTHERS THAT CAN INTERACT WITH IT.


SMALL POCKET OF STG SFC DRYING WAS EVIDENT AT BKD AND TO LESSER
EXTENT RPH...LIKELY RELATED TO DOWNDRAFTS FROM MIDLEVEL CONVECTION.
THIS AIR MAY BE ENTRAINED INTO INFLOW OF STORMS TO ITS W IN ANOTHER
COUPLE HOURS...POTENTIALLY LEADING TO MESSIER STRUCTURES.
MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALSO IS POSSIBLE SW OF EXISTING
CONVECTION ALONG BLENDING DRYLINE/CONFLUENCE LINE. AS THIS
OCCURS...ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL DIABATIC SFC HEATING S OF ONGOING
CONVECTION...ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL INCREASE. POTENTIAL THEREFORE
EXISTS FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SVR-TSTM DEVELOPMENT NEAR SRN EDGE OF
WW AND SWD THROUGH HILL COUNTRY. ANY SUCH CONVECTION MAY BECOME
SUPERCELLULAR WITH LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL AND TORNADO RISK.

--- NOTE ---
RAP MODEL HAS HAD A SUBSTANTIAL DRYING/OVER-MIXING PROBLEM OVER MUCH
OF CENTRAL TX AND SRN OK ALL DAY LONG. THIS APPEARS TO BE STRONGLY
AFFECTING MOISTURE FIELDS AND AUTOMATED ANALYSES OF PARAMETERS
DEPENDENT ON MOISTURE. USE BUOYANCY/MOISTURE/CONVECTIVE PROGS FROM
RAP...RAP-DEPENDENT HRRR...AND SPC/SFCOA FIELDS...WITH GREAT
CAUTION.


..EDWARDS.. 04/26/2015
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19z sounding partially in from FWD, large amount of CAPE in the lowest 6 km with a T/Td of 84/69. Wind fields will only strengthen later on.

too bad we couldn't also get one from say Ft Hood/Killeen, Camp Mabry/Bergstrom in Austin, or New Braunfels at the NWS office. so see what's going on between the metroplex and Del Rio.

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FWD stated in their AFD, sorry can't post that the surface low may be developing further north than what was originally thought and that the threat could shift more into the metroplex than central Texas. They also stated that the supercells off the low are still expected to form in the 5-10 pm timeframe, so what we are looking at right now is possibly not the bigger threat to come?

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FWD stated in their AFD, sorry can't post that the surface low may be developing further north than what was originally thought and that the threat could shift more into the metroplex than central Texas. They also stated that the supercells off the low are still expected to form in the 5-10 pm timeframe, so what we are looking at right now is possibly not the bigger threat to come?

 

This is not the main show. The majority of the large-scale ascent is still over New Mexico right now and will not hit the warm sector in TX until 22-0Z. That round will have a higher threat of tornadoes as the LLJ ramps up and LCL's drop.

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