audioguy3107 Posted April 25, 2015 Share Posted April 25, 2015 Well, after reading FFC's discussion this afternoon, probably should have a separate thread for this event...especially with them citing March 2008 as the closest reminder when numerous supercells tracked across north Georgia into South Carolina as the evening went along. SPC still has us only in a slight risk, but we all know the deal here. If we don't have any junkvection to deal with and we get a good amount of sun and heating before 2 PM or so, we may have a pretty serious situation on our hands. It doesn't look like the wedge will save us here around Atlanta this time, although may not be the case further NE into the upstate of SC. Anyhow, here's the Day 1 convective outlook in case you haven't seen it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted April 25, 2015 Author Share Posted April 25, 2015 Here's a part of the afternoon discussion........whenever offices in the SE start talking about long track tornadoes, we better start paying attention. Any STP over 2 or 3 has the potential to be pretty serious. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE STILL INDICATING ISOLATED TO SCATTEREDSIGNIFICANT SVR STORMS SAT 3PM-MIDNIGHT BEHIND MORE WIDESPREADAREA OF SHRA AND ELEVATED TSRA. PROGGED STP VALUES THE HIGHEST WECAN REMEMBER IN THE LAST 2-3 YEARS AND HAS WORKED WELL WITHPREVIOUS HIGH END EVENTS. 12Z GFS HAS STP 4-6 FROM SRN AL TO NWGA TO ERN TN AT 00Z SUN. VERY IMPRESSIVE DEEP SHEAR WITH THISEVENT AND EVEN THO DIRECTIONAL SHEAR NOT THAT GREAT...0-1KM BULKSHEAR ALSO IMPRESSIVE AT 30-40KTS. THOMPSON ET AL 2003 HAD SHOWNPREVIOUSLY THAT 0-1KM BULK SHEAR JUST AS HELPFUL AS 0-1KM SRH WHENPREDICTING TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. IF EVEN MORE FAVORABLE SHEARDEVELOPS ON STORM SCALE AND BOUNDARY WITH WEDGE FRONT INTERACTSWITH ANY SUPERCELL...MODERATE TO LONG TRACK TORNADOES CANT BERULED OUT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted April 25, 2015 Author Share Posted April 25, 2015 Here's the GFS forecast sounding for Atlanta for tomorrow evening.......CAPE over 2000 and LI of -5.8. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted April 25, 2015 Share Posted April 25, 2015 Here's the GFS forecast sounding for Atlanta for tomorrow evening.......CAPE over 2000 and LI of -5.8. Yikes. That's got spinners written all over it. Eyes to the sky later today for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted April 25, 2015 Share Posted April 25, 2015 The sounding posted above doesn't scream tornado to me with winds from the westerly/SSW direction at the surface. The area to watch for tornadic activity will be where the warm front/wedge boundary sets up, but still thinking the biggest threat for tornadoes will be N and NW of the area. Not ruling out a rouge supercell away from the boundary in the SE either. Other threat, in my opinion, will be large hail. Lapse rates fully support some large hail, especially out over TN. SPC has also highlighted this area in their newest update with a 30% hatched outlook. A couple soundings from the 0z NAM4km for comparison.. Athens, GA: Crossville, TN: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted April 25, 2015 Share Posted April 25, 2015 This is one of those days that I am glad that I live in the lee of the apps. I believe the wedge will save us here in the foothills. There might be some elevated activity later on, but nothing like what we could be facing if we had some daytime heating and no wedge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted April 25, 2015 Share Posted April 25, 2015 I know it's TWC , but they lowered the torcon index to 3 over N Ga today! That's a good thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted April 25, 2015 Share Posted April 25, 2015 5% chance of tornado's in KY/IL/IN and S GA/N FL but only a 2% chance elsewhere around the south. Cells don't look to pop until pretty late tonight so this won't be the best chase chance unless you are planning on going to the IL/KY line (which is indeed a good place to chase since it is mainly flat). I have been waiting for a decent threat in that area but I have a final exam in my forecasting class today so I will not be participating sadly. If something were to pop in E TN or N GA though later tonight, I might take a little journey if it isn't too late. I believe playing the triple point today in KY will be the best bet for anyone look for twisters with helicity favorable and a high celling. The 6z 4km NAM shows a nice line of cells breaking out across N GA late tonight but the other short range models do not agree as much. Cape will not be the problem in S GA as convective mode will be in full force, but shear could be marginal, not allowing full supercell mode to occur. The atmosphere does seem to be clearing a bit though, so a few decent cells later tonight across the south cannot be ruled out. Good luck to anyone chasing today and watch for large hail if you are headed to KY/TN! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted April 25, 2015 Share Posted April 25, 2015 5% chance of tornado's in KY/IL/IN and S GA/N FL but only a 2% chance elsewhere around the south. Cells don't look to pop until pretty late tonight so this won't be the best chase chance unless you are planning on going to the IL/KY line (which is indeed a good place to chase since it is mainly flat). I have been waiting for a decent threat in that area but I have a final exam in my forecasting class today so I will not be participating sadly. If something were to pop in E TN or N GA though later tonight, I might take a little journey if it isn't too late. I believe playing the triple point today in KY will be the best bet for anyone look for twisters with helicity favorable and a high celling. The 6z 4km NAM shows a nice line of cells breaking out across N GA late tonight but the other short range models do not agree as much. Cape will not be the problem in S GA as convective model will be in full force, but shear could be marginal, not allowing full supercell mode to occur. The atmosphere does seem to be clearing a bit though, so a few decent cells later tonight across the south cannot be ruled out. Good luck to anyone chasing today and watch for large hail if you are headed to KY/TN! Lower Ohio Valley is the place to see twisters for sure, wedge wins in SC and a lot of GA......until we see this pattern break the chances for most of Dixie Alley into the Carolinas to see a large true severe outbreak is pretty slim.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted April 25, 2015 Share Posted April 25, 2015 Wedge is not much of a factor IMBY as of now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted April 25, 2015 Share Posted April 25, 2015 Wedge is not much of a factor IMBY as of now N GA will need to see plenty of sun to destabilize but its early so maybe you will get enough sun to help with this afternoon.......there are some decent breaks to the west headed your way......if the low had headed further south it would have been a rough day there for sure.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted April 25, 2015 Share Posted April 25, 2015 Under a tornado watch here now. Doesn't look like we will see anything other than light to moderate rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hammer Posted April 25, 2015 Share Posted April 25, 2015 Too cloudy here to get a lot of heating. I think we continue to get rain, not a lot else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted April 25, 2015 Share Posted April 25, 2015 Too cloudy here to get a lot of heating. I think we continue to get rain, not a lot else.Same here. Might as well cancel that tornado watch.Edit: Actually trim the northern end of the watch as the southern end looks a bit more favorable for the potential of severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted April 25, 2015 Share Posted April 25, 2015 Not sure why there is a 70% chance of storms IMBY but 15 miles to my west in AL there is only a 30% chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hammer Posted April 25, 2015 Share Posted April 25, 2015 Same here. Might as well cancel that tornado watch. Edit: Actually trim the northern end of the watch as the southern end looks a bit more favorable for the potential of severe weather. Same here. Clouds burned off - heating up faster than I thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted April 25, 2015 Author Share Posted April 25, 2015 Well, looks like things may not be as volatile as models showed yesterday, of course the morning AM convection has reinforced the ever present north Georgia storm shield. Anyway, FFC has just sent up a special sounding so we may know a little more here in the next hour. We've had plenty of breaks in the clouds and temps have warmed up into the low to mid 70's, so instability is slowly increasing so it's not over yet. We should know more by 4 PM or so. - Buck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted April 25, 2015 Share Posted April 25, 2015 We weren't supposed to get alot of activity here today, but the wedgy is strong! Stiff NE breeze and drizzle , temp 62 degrees! Perfect weather for outdoor activity ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted April 25, 2015 Share Posted April 25, 2015 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0456 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0210 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL AL AND WRN GACONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLEVALID 251910Z - 252045ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENTSUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OFCNTRL AL/WRN GA THIS AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVEDEVELOPMENT...WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT INITIALLY FORMED OVER E-CNTRLMS HAS RECENTLY MOVED INTO W-CNTRL AL WHILE WEAKENING...MOST LIKELYIN ASSOCIATION WITH LIFT ATTENDANT TO A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVETROUGH MOVING OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY ALONG WITH DIURNAL HEATING. ABROAD CIRRUS SHIELD DOWNSTREAM FROM THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE GULFCOAST IS TEMPERING MORE ROBUST HEATING ACROSS THIS AREA...WITHTEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. CONVECTIONFROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS OVERTURNED THE LOW TO MID LEVELAIRMASS AND LESSENED LAPSE RATES SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...18Z SOUNDINGSFROM BMX AND FFC SUGGEST THAT THE ATMOSPHERE HAS HAD SUFFICIENT TIMETO RECOVER...AS MLCAPE RANGES FROM 1000-2000 J/KG ACROSS CNTRLAL...TO ABOUT 500-1000 J/KG OVER WRN GA. EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 50-70 KTWOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...WITH AN ASSOCIATED THREAT FORDAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. WITH LOW-LEVEL FLOW NOW MAINLY VEEREDTO THE SW PER 18Z AREA SOUNDINGS AND RADAR VWPS...THE TORNADO THREATAPPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME. RECENT HRRR TRENDS SUGGEST ISOLATED TOWIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY FORM ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF CNTRL ALTHIS AFTERNOON. IF THIS OCCURS...THEN A WW MAY BE ISSUED...GLEASON/MEAD.. 04/25/2015ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...LAT...LON 32318780 32518831 32858829 33518704 33998542 3343847432428466 32088503 32118679 32288737 32318780 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted April 25, 2015 Share Posted April 25, 2015 The tornado watch just expired and they replaced it with a severe thunderstorm watch. We weren't included this time lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted April 25, 2015 Share Posted April 25, 2015 We have a chance of storms here late tonight, but I don't see how we get any with it being so cool and rainy all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted April 26, 2015 Share Posted April 26, 2015 Best storm of the year currently. A legit severe thunderstorm. You can tell the storms still weakened a bit though. Where Gawx? 81mph wind gust around Savannah and that's the second severe storm of the day there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted April 26, 2015 Share Posted April 26, 2015 Allan Huffman said we could get storms here between 4 and 8 in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted April 26, 2015 Share Posted April 26, 2015 Best storm of the year currently. A legit severe thunderstorm. You can tell the storms still weakened a bit though. Where Gawx? 81mph wind gust around Savannah and that's the second severe storm of the day there. KSAV got hit hard tonight. 9 pm obs, NW 48, peak gust 81 mph squall 1/4 mile VISEdit: You saw that report, my goodness, these storms missed just south of here and would have been the most severe in a long time. That's the strongest wind gust i've seen in KCHS CWA outside of a tropical cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted April 26, 2015 Share Posted April 26, 2015 Yep, metal/Stormsfury, it has been quite the stormy and wet day in SAV. The SAV area got strong to severe thunderstorms with lots of thunder/lightning, moderate to heavy rains, and gusty winds this evening. My power flickered off once. This adds to the heavy rains from strong to severe thunderstorms that we got earlier today (around midday) to make for quite a weather day! Regarding the 81 mph gust at the SAV airport: wow!! Holy sheet! I wonder how long it has been since the last gust that strong there as alluded to by Stormsfury. The last hurricane hit was by David in 1979 and I don't know if SAV airport got a gust that strong then. I may check David later. There was widespread tree damage as well as some property damage in especially areas just west and NW of SAV proper followed very soon by that in parts of the city followed by some of that to the east over Wilmington Island and finally Tybee Island, where 60 mph gusts were measured about 20 minutes after the city of SAV got hit. So, the activity was moving eastward at near a whopping 60 mph! Edit: I got probably close to 3" of rainfall today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted April 26, 2015 Author Share Posted April 26, 2015 Well, good lord was that a colossal severe weather fail. How we went from FFC's discussion yesterday to what (didn't) happen in less than 24 hrs. is beyond me. I'm embarrassed for even starting this thread . North Georgia storm shield alive and well for about the 4th straight year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted April 26, 2015 Share Posted April 26, 2015 Well, good lord was that a colossal severe weather fail. How we went from FFC's discussion yesterday to what (didn't) happen in less than 24 hrs. is beyond me. I'm embarrassed for even starting this thread . North Georgia storm shield alive and well for about the 4th straight year.The SGA storm sheild is still alive too. That line of storms got devoured as soon as it passed us. It usually happens to the west b4 moving in. The rest held together up there by Savannah.It been a pretty active 6 days here severe wise. 2 tornado watches, 2 severe thunderstorm watches, like 6 severe thunderstorm warnings and 1 tornado warning. Today was the only day we actually got some action though and is the only day I remember here where we have had a severe thunderstorm watch and tornado watch in one day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted April 26, 2015 Share Posted April 26, 2015 Well, good lord was that a colossal severe weather fail. How we went from FFC's discussion yesterday to what (didn't) happen in less than 24 hrs. is beyond me. I'm embarrassed for even starting this thread . North Georgia storm shield alive and well for about the 4th straight year. No storms here. Don't worry about the fail. This has been happening since last spring. Severe storms are getting as hard to get right as snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted April 26, 2015 Share Posted April 26, 2015 Wow that lady sounds so dumb on twc. Did they really not know that was coming to Mobile, AL? There was warnings and everything. They say they thought it was going to be a regular storm. I'm pretty sure the skies had to be scary looking before the storm hit and not just suddenly popped up out of nowhere like they were saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted April 26, 2015 Share Posted April 26, 2015 Wow that lady sounds so dumb on twc. Did they really not know that was coming to Mobile, AL? There was warnings and everything. They say they thought it was going to be a regular storm. I'm pretty sure the skies had to be scary looking before the storm hit and not just suddenly popped up out of nowhere like they were saying.Well, when your sailing in a regatta , the box wine is flowing like wine, and you don't have a care in the world , til you are capsized! Money can't save you from drowning!! She did sound dumb, and first rule on the water is : know the weather, duh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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