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Model discussion for May


Ginx snewx

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I had a well in my first house, way better than the town water I have now.   You just get a soft water tank and a filter for the iron in the water and its fine.  I never lost water due to little rain and always had great pressure.

no brainer, if I lose water at 400 feet from a drought we all got problems. I just don't like chlorinated water

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no brainer, if I lose water at 400 feet from a drought we all got problems. I just don't like chlorinated water

 

I  can't taste it. One good thing about the northeast....we don't need heavily chlorinated water. Ever smell the water in FL? Yuck.

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I can't taste it. One good thing about the northeast....we don't need heavily chlorinated water. Ever smell the water in FL? Yuck.

I couldn't taste it either while I grew up with it. When we moved to a house with our first well I loved the taste. I can't drink the city water anymore. Some towns put a lot of junk in their water. I don't understand the need of putting fluoride in water. That crap is toxic beyond trace amounts.
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I couldn't taste it either while I grew up with it. When we moved to a house with our first well I loved the taste. I can't drink the city water anymore. Some towns put a lot of junk in their water. I don't understand the need of putting fluoride in water. That crap is toxic beyond trace amounts.

Hopefully the wells in Tolland are deep.

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I couldn't taste it either while I grew up with it. When we moved to a house with our first well I loved the taste. I can't drink the city water anymore. Some towns put a lot of junk in their water. I don't understand the need of putting fluoride in water. That crap is toxic beyond trace amounts.

I grew up in Westerly and at the time the water was untreated and rated second in the nation for taste and clarity, never tasted chlorinated water until I went to GON as a kid at an Aunts, it even smelled awful. Since then WST was forced to florinate, chlorinate but no old timers will drink it. 

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Not buying summer starting, but looks like a pretty mild week. The front is more of a fropa with maybe seabreezes near the coast instead of NE flow..at least for now. With ridging out west over the Rockies..seems more like dry NW flow though later in the period, unless we can get a WF and wave of low pressure riding nearby.

 

Not to be douchy but I have a different interpretation of the flow structure for this upcoming week... and by that "I" mean, hours 72 thru D6.5 or so... 

 

I see trough over the Rockies that fills and reloads in pulses, ...and eventual evolution toward summery riding ~95 W, ...that's pretty much a description of the D6 operatoinal Euro from 00z last night, admittedly.. But the bevy of tele's and other operationals and so forth offer support for that sort of evolution so I don't personally have a problem with that.  And ... if that were the whole story alone I'd have to outright disagree and suggest that the season's first real summer-like air mass is about to go some distance toward signficantly correcting whatever negative departures have heretofore plagued the numbers...

 

Where I tend to have issues is with the flow over eastern Ontario.  At first I thought it was just a relic of the typical Euro/GGEM amplitude bias of the late middle range, ...carving out heights too deeply in the lower Maritimes (thus keeping the flow NW, north of CAR too long).  That would tend to hang warm/stationary boundaries along a NW-SE not too far NE of SNE, with BD threat in perpetual play. It just doesn't seem, however, to be correcting flatter up there as we get that latter middle range now more at earlier middle range -- still rather sharp and confluent looking over eastern Ontario.  I don't like shoving any warm...heck, even in July, into NE with confluence up there.   

 

As is, the Euro does have some sort of N-wall or weak BD scenario that knocks T's back mid week. I think that's been there for a while... But looking at Wednesday's chart(s) ...that could easily come down with more momentum than merely making for 850 mb temperature gradient look... If not, oh well...we go from first 82F to cozy 67's for a day.  

 

But get a load of that TC that even the Euro now hones in on... That's awesome, in May. That things been in the runs off and on, though more on...for three or four days actually.   I also like how it's tropical moisture get entrained along the baroclinic zone way out there in time.. 

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I actually worked on the design of numerous public water supply systems, and many chlorinate just to be "safe".  A lot depends on where you live in relation to the treatment system too....if you live near the treatment location, it'll taste like chlorine, if you live on the outskirts of the water system, it won't test as much like chlorine, but might be a bit more musty tasting.  Chlorine breaks down over time. Utilities with groundwater wells don't automatically have to chlorinate in MA either.  If there is a bacteria hit, then yes they have to from that point forward.  The chemicals they put in water are harmless, since the concentrations are so low....I wouldn't worry about it. 

 

Personally I'm on a well with a low pH and high iron and manganese, so my water tastes like blood and it's eating away at my copper pipes and staining everything..... but I'm too cheap to do anything about it. :lmao:  

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Not to be douchy but I have a different interpretation of the flow structure for this upcoming week... and by that "I" mean, hours 72 thru D6.5 or so... 

 

I see trough over the Rockies that fills and reloads in pulses, ...and eventual evolution toward summery riding ~95 W, ...that's pretty much a description of the D6 operatoinal Euro from 00z last night, admittedly.. But the bevy of tele's and other operationals and so forth offer support for that sort of evolution so I don't personally have a problem with that.  And ... if that were the whole story alone I'd have to outright disagree and suggest that the season's first real summer-like air mass is about to go some distance toward signficantly correcting whatever negative departures have heretofore plagued the numbers...

 

Where I tend to have issues is with the flow over eastern Ontario.  At first I thought it was just a relic of the typical Euro/GGEM amplitude bias of the late middle range, ...carving out heights too deeply in the lower Maritimes (thus keeping the flow NW, north of CAR too long).  That would tend to hang warm/stationary boundaries along a NW-SE not too far NE of SNE, with BD threat in perpetual play. It just doesn't seem, however, to be correcting flatter up there as we get that latter middle range now more at earlier middle range -- still rather sharp and confluent looking over eastern Ontario.  I don't like shoving any warm...heck, even in July, into NE with confluence up there.   

 

As is, the Euro does have some sort of N-wall or weak BD scenario that knocks T's back mid week. I think that's been there for a while... But looking at Wednesday's chart(s) ...that could easily come down with more momentum than merely making for 850 mb temperature gradient look... If not, oh well...we go from first 82F to cozy 67's for a day.  

 

But get a load of that TC that even the Euro now hones in on... That's awesome, in May. That things been in the runs off and on, though more on...for three or four days actually.   I also like how it's tropical moisture get entrained along the baroclinic zone way out there in time.. 

 

I think we agree regarding your hesitance to bringing screaming summer into all of New England. You certainly could be stuck with more S-SSE flow taming the warmth down a bit at times. Later on, that trough over the Rockies becomes a ridge and thus NW flow in the mid levels. 

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I actually worked on the design of numerous public water supply systems, and many chlorinate just to be "safe".  A lot depends on where you live in relation to the treatment system too....if you live near the treatment location, it'll taste like chlorine, if you live on the outskirts of the water system, it won't test as much like chlorine, but might be a bit more musty tasting.  Chlorine breaks down over time. Utilities with groundwater wells don't automatically have to chlorinate in MA either.  If there is a bacteria hit, then yes they have to from that point forward.  The chemicals they put in water are harmless, since the concentrations are so low....I wouldn't worry about it. 

 

Personally I'm on a well with a low pH and high iron and manganese, so my water tastes like blood and it's eating away at my copper pipes and staining everything..... but I'm too cheap to do anything about it. :lmao:  

 

Go wells!

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I think we agree regarding your hesitance to bringing screaming summer into all of New England. You certainly could be stuck with more S-SSE flow taming the warmth down a bit at times. Later on, that trough over the Rockies becomes a ridge and thus NW flow in the mid levels. 

 

Absolutely... particularly Maine... heh.  If the details of the flow synopsis alter and flatten that Ontario confluence some (which could happen still at D4/5 lead) then we'll talk. Otherwise, I'd stay climo for now...  

 

But that 'ridge' in the west later on... I have problems with that.  That appears to be an artifact of both model camps bias' playing out in their own regard.

 

In one instance, the Euro digs everything including butterflies too far S beyond D6/7 ...most of the time, and that completely obfuscates the 'truer' physical support for the flow configuration.  Code for ... there could easily be more ridging in the east when push comes to shove.  

 

Contrasting, the GFS is notoriously an N-stream bully... so that could cause the N the stream to "carve" too much during this time of year in particular. I've also noticed that the ensemble mean of the GFS is really honing in on the +NAO phase state, yet the operational keeps trying to flip the bird to its' own family in developing these annoying sub-synoptic scaled blocks that just conveniently allow digging of the height into the NE.... 'Oh, look, now I have a block to curve around'  - well duh.

 

So yeah, it's a tedious debate - sure. But, it does have some sensible differences. But correcting for either of those tendencies distracts from a west ridge east trough by quite a bit.  Also, the PNA is neutral/positive at a time of year when its correlation strength is falling like a duck over a nuclear meltdown, while the NAO maintains a strong positive signal - the NAO does carry warm season correlation.  The NAO offers plenty of support for eastern ridging ...more so than either camp.  

 

We'll see... 

 

But as far as next week, be prepared for a cold wedge of chlly low tide smell, with strata cloaking envious eyes that peer landward from just off the N shore... Muah hahahaha

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I  can't taste it. One good thing about the northeast....we don't need heavily chlorinated water. Ever smell the water in FL? Yuck.

I travel there a lot for work, nasty is an absolute understatement. Undrinkable out of the faucet.

 

This is my first experience being on well water when I moved to VT, nice that I can drink water right out of the faucet.

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it'll actually in be interesting to see how averages turn out...

 

Now that we are apparently sans the EPO curse of last winter... The region may be subjected (I'm wondering...), or perhaps re-introduced to the background warming signal that's affecting the whole world really.

 

Don't mean to roll eyes there ... and am aware how that may possibly be miss-construed.  But we must face facts that more stations world over put up positive departures, than negative ones...spanning the last three to five decades worth of empirical data.   

 

It seems before last winter's "unique to eastern N/A" cold assault ..that really flavored this last winter too as a hybrid version... taking those two incidences out of the numbers, we were not different. It seemed endless months were always annoying decimals positive ... if not more demonstratively so with whole number values.   Some March...maybe 2012 was like +8 or something ludicrous... 

 

Anyway, what I am getting at is that given the current global climate flux, it seems a +1 is an easier feat than a -1, when all other factors are behaving equally.  That "equal" does not include odd-ball 18 month long -EPO plagues, either... So provided we truly do free of that influence of this month of May, I wouldn't be shocked at all if the region returns to the longer term case of +1 itus ,.,and if so, a +2 is not a stretch, either. 

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And then suddenly...it's summer

 

 

Upper ridging is set to dominate our pattern for a good part of the first half of May.

Expect above average temperatures and mostly dry conditions. Any rainfall will

probably be scattered in nature with frontal passages. As pretty a first half

of May that you will ever see around here.

 

https://twitter.com/WSI_Energy/status/593775190498246656

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