CoastalWx Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 LOL this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 I've also seen many times where models were too far north with stratiform rains in the warm season too. I think a couple of people..perhaps only one actually...are getting too worked up on QPF placements that will likely change with every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 When things go bad in the winter..i.e ..you were expecting big snows in our area and then all of a sudden it was congrats NNE and we got mix to rain or whatever or trends took it out to sea..you tend to disappear for extended periods of time to recollect yourself. I don't think you know what you are talking about...I was telling everyone to keep the caution flags out in that March suppression event...even when models were showing good QPF up to NH border. Maybe it's I just don't post as much on an imagined threat that you sometimes try and hype up (like everyone getting 2-3" on windex squalls or some dying clipper that is clearly on life support) that is giving you that impression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 I've also seen many times where models were too far north with stratiform rains in the warm season too. I think a couple of people..perhaps only one actually...are getting too worked up on QPF placements that will likely change with every run. Like I've said..I hope your big rain ideas are correct. IMO.seeing every set of guidance shift massively NW today was concerning. At this point just concerning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 Like I've said..I hope your big rain ideas are correct. IMO.seeing every set of guidance shift massively NW today was concerning. At this point just concerning I know you are kidding...but I don't think I said big rains for everyone. Someone probably will..perhaps areas in VT and ern NY and another area as the whole trough moves east later Monday, but I don't think it's unreasonable to say that many areas will get some beneficial rains and not just stuff to wet the pollen either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 I know you are kidding...but I don't think I said big rains for everyone. Someone probably will..perhaps areas in VT and ern NY and another area as the whole trough moves east later Monday, but I don't think it's unreasonable to say that many areas will get some beneficial rains and not just stuff to wet the pollen either. I was just hoping 2-3 inches was coming for all of the area..and now I'm concerned it's less than 1"..but still time to iron out detes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 I was just hoping 2-3 inches was coming for all of the area..and now I'm concerned it's less than 1"..but still time to iron out detes It's very possible a line of heavy shwrs and storms fires on the front too on Sunday. Has that look and may even favor you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 LOL this thread. It's June! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 from Eric Fisher. This will do nicely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 from Eric Fisher. This will do nicely That would NOT suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 12z EPS mean is a deluge from Philly to Boston from Sunday to Wednesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 That looks like GFS nonsense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 29, 2015 Author Share Posted May 29, 2015 That looks like GFS nonsense We rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 Sort of seems like part 1 is more NW areas near ern NY and VT etc. Part 2 is when the whole thing shifts east later Monday and Tuesday. However, my guess is that if you are north of the front...ocnl rains happen despite not being in the favored spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 We rainill take the under at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 ill take the under at all You, Epstein, and Blizzard24 all make for a powerhouse team of mets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 You, Epstein, and Blizzard24 all make for a powerhouse team of mets. Don't like this setup for SNE..with front north longer it's relying on convection ..meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 Congrats on the drought buster. Kevin, I am still waiting for my Yankees tickets that you promised me last year after your last bust in the rain department. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 If 12z trends continue overnight take all those amounts down under an inch from Nj to SNE. Trend not our friend. If you really need Yankee tickets that badly I can get them for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 If 12z trends continue overnight take all those amounts down under an inch from Nj to SNE. Trend not our friend. If you really need Yankee tickets that badly I can get them for you It's not about what I need, it's about making good for a bet that you made, and nearly a year late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 It's not about what I need, it's about making good for a bet that you made, and nearly a year late.Considering no one makes anyone pay up online bets with people they don't know on a wx board, that's a bit out there.. But like I said, if you need them I can get them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 Don't like this setup for SNE..with front north longer it's relying on convection ..mehI'm still trying to understand this wishcasting post. You should be safely north of the warm sector after your Sunday storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 I'm still trying to understand this wishcasting post. You should be safely north of the warm sector after your Sunday storms.Thats the thing. I think front slows even more. Like either stalls over CT or even pike area. I do t think it ever gets as far south as some have you believe. I'm sure eventually it makes it to NYC but maybe not until Tues am? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 Thats the thing. I think front slows even more. Like either stalls over CT or even pike area. I do t think it ever gets as far south as some have you believe. I'm sure eventually it makes it to NYC but maybe not until Tues am?We'll see. NAM is on your side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 We'll see. NAM is on your side. Confidence inspiring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 Confidence inspiring.Don't forget the upgrade! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 We'll see. NAM is on your side.Lol. Ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 GFS has almost a cstl front like feature too. Pretty neat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 GFS has almost a cstl front like feature too. Pretty neat.Congrats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 Congrats Maybe Ray finally benefits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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