CoastalWx Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 40's in SNe or 50's? I see some 40s verbatim on some of them..esp higher spots. It's a big high pumping in colder and drier air like winter. These are setups that give us temps much cooler than say MOS would have. However, it would obviously need to be raining rather steadily. You aren't getting that with a bright overcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 Not sure why the downplaying. GFS is pretty wet too. Doesn't fit the drought narrative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 Doesn't fit the drought narrative. Drought controls all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 Drought controls all. I like my chances of staying dry up here much more though. Monday is a golf day after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 I think it is an odd pattern evolution with surface features... really hearkens to the blockiness plague that set in over on this side of the Hemisphere (or everywhere if so...) that begin about 18 mo ago and continues unrelenting. Basically, when you have a + 1 or even 2 SD surface PP moving across along and just N of the St Lawrence latitude like that you don't typically witness this in the summer. Granted, we are in late spring... but for all intents and purposes, it's quite late to see amplitude of that particular structure evolve at this time of year. It's far more likely to see that in the cold season, with prelude to ice and the manidory 10- page icing thread topic... replete with pictures of historical events of lore. India's heat is a huge anomaly, btw - It's not so much that it is hot. It's because there is no monsoon flow. That heat is created by a super synoptic scaled downslope event off the Hims... At this time of year, more typically the flow turns around and begins to flow off the adjacent oceanic areas ... established as compensating flow for rising air inland. This transports theta-e richness to fuel torridity of a different type: humid. The "blockiness" et all is usurping that typology and lending pretty directly to a kill off ... wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 lol All by itself with no support. Good luck Last night you laughed at the GFS showing rain, now tossing the Euro rains. Is the SOP going into this summer to poo-poo any and all rain events until proven wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 Last night you laughed at the GFS showing rain, now tossing the Euro rains. Is the SOP going into this summer to poo-poo any and all rain events until proven wrong? Unless it's been a rainy spring and we're on the flood train. You'll catch up eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 It's always tricky to predict these stratiform rains in the warm season. The key is Monday with the second s/w trough coming out of the Great lakes. That sort of reinvigorates the rain again..especially on the euro. The GFS has this, but not as prevalent as the euro. The setup does have a decent 850 LLJ overriding the chilly air at the surface, so there are some advective processes that sometimes are missing in warm season synoptic events. I'm not sold on prolific rains yet, but for now, a decent soaking seems reasonable in a good part of the area. Yeah it's a pretty good setup for the time of year. Not sure why the hype machine is in downplay mode... I figured he'd be ready to fire up the SOS signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 Models are really coming around for drought denting or ending rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S&P Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 Yeah it's a pretty good setup for the time of year. Not sure why the hype machine is in downplay mode... I figured he'd be ready to fire up the SOS signal. only if we were standing at 24" with the chance to add to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 Days of rain on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard24 Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 Just showers for sunday and monday . when in drought dont go for rain or lots of it . fronts can stall to far south of us for rain or north and models dont do well on them . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 Days of rain on the GFS.Congrats Pike north and west to ALB on that run as front slows farther north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 Just showers for sunday and monday . when in drought dont go for rain or lots of it .Don't forget your umbrella and wear your seatbelt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 Yes please to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 Congrats Pike north and west to ALB on that run as front slows farther north You're looking at bullseyes days in advance . Verbatim everyone is 1-2 outside that area on the GFS Alb is like 4-5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 You're looking at bullseyes days in advance . Verbatim everyone is 1-2 outside that area on the GFS Alb is like 4-5.Not bulls eyes,, just the general thing I've been worried about with a stall farther north and the massive rains being forecast over SNE end up in CNE/ NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 Not bulls eyes,, just the general thing I've been worried about with a stall farther north and the massive rains being forecast over SNE end up in CNE/ NNEthere has been a trend northward, the Canadian is also further north but it still gives beneficial rains to the south and the front doesn't clear the area until Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 there has been a trend northward, the Canadian is also further north but it still gives beneficial rains to the south and the front doesn't clear the area until Tuesday.Nam has same idea. IMO we all get some rains , but I think the real soaking 2-4 inch rains being forecast in SNE end more like a Berks to SNH line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 29, 2015 Author Share Posted May 29, 2015 Nam has same idea. IMO we all get some rains , but I think the real soaking 2-4 inch rains being forecast in SNE end more like a Berks to SNH line probably a good thing, nice stratiform soaking rather than a runoff deluge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 either way, we're in for a lousy stretch of weather Sun-Tue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 Any rain is good, whether it be 1/2", an inch 2 inches or 4 inches, better than nothing at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 Stalled front north also means we spend less time in 40's and low 50's . Cooler sure, but let's see if we can keep most of that north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 The front is not stalled north though. Good luck chasing QPF bullseyes in a synoptic setup during the warm season. Welcomed rains coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 Fireplace smoke in the air by Tuesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 Fireplace smoke in the air by Tuesday?I wonder what the consecutive hour <50F streak is here for June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 The front is not stalled north though. Good luck chasing QPF bullseyes in a synoptic setup during the warm season. Welcomed rains coming.Haven't seen this in awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 Looks good. Front slowly moves east too and gives a region wide dousing it seems. Perhaps a pattern favoring more rain chances going forward too with lower heights across the southern states. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 Looks good. Front slowly moves east too and gives a region wide dousing it seems. Perhaps a pattern favoring more rain chances going forward too with lower heights across the southern states. Probably some decent hydro issues in upstate NY if the Euro verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 Man..wholescale shifts north and west today on every single model with the good rains. hopefully that's the last shift NW..one more and it leaves most of SNE out of the good rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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