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Model discussion for May


Ginx snewx

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Sunday will be a raw mess in NNE. Monday could be the day with some disparity. We'll see how much that high builds in.

 

 

Ok, thanks.  I was under the impression from GYX's AFD that the front will make it far enough south Saturday night that NNE will be out of the showers.  Oh well. 

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It's always tricky to predict these stratiform rains in the warm season. The key is Monday with the second s/w trough coming out of the Great lakes. That sort of reinvigorates the rain again..especially on the euro. The GFS has this, but not as prevalent as the euro. The setup does have a decent 850 LLJ overriding the chilly air at the surface, so there are some advective processes that sometimes are missing in warm season synoptic events.  I'm not sold on prolific rains yet, but for now, a decent soaking seems reasonable in a good part of the area.

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