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Model discussion for May


Ginx snewx

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I don't know if you are aware of this or not, but they have a visible satellite where you can actually verify reality vs an automated robot

2C946DA2-033D-4013-9925-6FE5AD5F2EE0_zps

 

 

I am quite aware, thank you.   Just telling you what it says.

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Sat shows a mix of sun /clouds all day in HVN..When did you get like this? It's not fun to interact with you when you do this

When you post stuff that is hyperbole it needs to be counteracted with reality. The asos shows mostly cloudy, sat does too. Why would you reply like that to Ct Valley? He was right yet you chose to try to cast doubt on his obs.

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Looks to me like a cool snap early in the weekend turns around real sharply...  Sunday already has 850 mb recovered over 10 C warmer compared to 12z Saturday... Pretty impressive 24 hour synoptic whiplash.  

 

Then it appears about a 50/50 shot at the season's first heat wave.  May only be of the 92/68 variety, so not 'big heat' per se, but Wednesday and Thursday look slam dunks for that.. Tuesday's a wild card. Warm frontal junk/timing of arrival of deep layer continental barotropic air might muddle up the high t a bit.  Anyway, this isn't a dragon breath Sonoran up and over heat; it's bulging SE ridge airing out Texarcana/Gulf air mixed with Tennessee Valley farts. Should that air mass make strides into SNE like current majority depicts, it's likely to be convincing higher DPs for change for being of that source/origin. 

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. Furey's forecast was good. Most of Ct saw partly/ mostly sunny skies today . The visible proves that. The area where Joe did not do well was temps. He was too warm. Today's chill over performed

I listened to him later and he changed to mix of Sun and clouds. Mostly Sunny I believe is greater than 80 percent sunshine and there was too much cirrus for that.
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I think you missed the point. Our environment can handle these swings (maybe not manicured lawns but they aren't natural), it's not overly uncommon to be up by 15" in a year and then go down by 15" in a year.

 

Dude 2015 is the driest year on record for BDL, by like 17 inches.

 

Of course there are over 225 days missing that haven't happened yet.

 

I mean we're not talking the Plains where dry years can see less than 10" and the wettest seasons on record out there are solidly below average for CT (35ish inches versus 45ish).

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Dude 2015 is the driest year on record for BDL, by like 17 inches.

 

Of course there are over 225 days missing that haven't happened yet.

 

I mean we're not talking the Plains where dry years can see less than 10" and the wettest seasons on record out there are solidly below average for CT (35ish inches versus 45ish).

 

Are you sure you meant 2015.  I do not believe they are off by 17 inches.  The map looks like 4 to at most 6 inches for the year.

 

This is the departure from normal for the year 2015:

post-1304-0-73786000-1432206846_thumb.jp

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congrats to all

Population Affected by Drought: 24,754,687

 

 

The Northeast

Aside from a couple bursts of thundershowers in the Mid-Atlantic States, mostly dry weather again prevailed. Stream data from USGS indicated extremely low flows for this time of year from the northern Mid-Atlantic region into southern New England. Moderate drought (D1) was introduced in two areas—one stretching from parts of eastern Pennsylvania into New England, and the other covering much of northern New York. In many of the driest areas, spring precipitation has been scarce. From March 1 – May 19, precipitation totaled less than two-third of normal in locations such as Boston (5.64 inches, or 56% of normal), New York’s Central Park (7.12 inches, or 63%), and Providence (7.39 inches, or 65%).

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it's official. Something we were afraid of entering heat season. At least now most of us can join in. 1960's here we come perhaps? Dry overall next 10 days GFS/CMC?

 

it's official. Something we were afraid of entering heat season. At least now most of us can join in. 1960's here we come perhaps? Dry overall next 10 days GFS aside

why are you afraid? please list the things you are afraid of

ENS aside

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I don't want to go on record saying it won't frost overnight Friday into the wee hours of Saturday morning, but will go on record saying that other than some very typical over-achieving geography enhanced cool locales ...the vast majority would surprise me.

 

The reason why is that even in the best of circumstances, at this time of year, it is more difficult for a couple of reasons.

 

1) The nights are about as short as they are going to be ...now until early August

2) Perhaps more important than #1, the foliage/landscape is now evapotranspiring and dumping moisture into the atmosphere at night. As that evaporation takes place it is lifting heat and integrating it... this is a substantial offset for shorter duration nights. 

3) Perhaps the most important reason of all, in situ this is a scenario where the winds stay elevated. I don't see it decoupling with much success given to the synoptic evolution of features. The high is too far SW and we maintain gradient...  

 

For me, adding all three of these factors up results in a pretty substantial off-set to radiational cooling, and I bet most place slam cooling shut right around 40 F ...chilly.  Annoying.  Out of place and unseasonal. But shy of crystals.

 

Impressed by the warm/hot signal that continues to gather consistency and strength in the operational runs.  The tele's are getting harder and harder to use, but the most correlative (the NAO) remains robustly positive, so given to favorable timing of events as they situated in space and time out over the Rockies ... any impetus to build eastern heights farther E has little inhibition in doing so given to that layout.  Such is what we are seeing... 

 

I'd say 60/40 confidence in a heat wave of lower caliber.   850's of 17C with increasing DPs from late Monday through Thursday. 

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