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Model discussion for May


Ginx snewx

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Who tries to wishcast a drought?

 

Either way things are fine here. Grass is green, garden is flowering nicely, and we picked of 0.91" of rain yesterday.

interestingly, BDL is down 8 inches of rain over the last 365 days. Didn't realize it was that dry. BOS is only minus an inch
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interestingly, BDL is down 8 inches of rain over the last 365 days. Didn't realize it was that dry. BOS is only minus an inch

 

You can see it on this pretty well....actually above normal on the Cape, and just a touch below in eastern Mass.  But CT has been quite low (BDL hits the -8" zone) and we've also been really low up in the upslope regions of the Spine in Northern VT.  It was actually a really dry winter up here (QPF worries warranted, lol), but in general we've been running quite dry in the mountains over the past year.  Averages are pretty high in the mountains, so even "running dry" can be serviceable.

 

I'm sort of surprised though because I didn't see a weak Nino as being a dry pattern, but the deepest moisture stayed at the coast and off-shore.  Look at Eastport, ME area... that's where all the QPF went.  East.

 

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But this is New England.... and in 2013 we had very wet weather (BTV and northern VT in general had its wettest May-June on record in 2013).

 

So we may be down in precip this year, but two years ago we were the opposite with 10" above normal.

 

Mother Nature loves her climo in the means. 

 

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Could you list the problems in order of seriousness.

Well I'm to your west in the middle of that -12 to -16 departure area and I can tell you that dust devils are a regular occurrence and we've been under a constant Red Flag Warning.  In the evenings I set up a watering station with my garden hose for the wildlife, first the deer come, followed by the turkeys, then the fox and rabbits, its a regular pecking order they have worked out and they stick to it. Without my garden hose I'm quite sure many wild life populations would be close to wiped out by now. 

 

 

I can't back any of that up.

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Wow the state is down 8 - as much as 16-20 inches below normal from Ginx south in SE CTbelow normal over the last year. That is bad bad news. Yikes

 

You failed to mention the graphic I posted that showed up to 10-15" above normal in 2013 in parts of CT. 

 

Long term, it all evens out.

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You failed to mention the graphic I posted that showed up to 10-15" above normal in 2013 in parts of CT.

Long term, it all evens out.

That may deluge happened right after he started the 2013 damaging drought thread too. LOL.

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You failed to mention the graphic I posted that showed up to 10-15" above normal in 2013 in parts of CT.

Long term, it all evens out.

Apparently any year with below normal precip now is indicative of a drought. Forget about all of those years with 45-50"+ of liquid in the past decade.
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reservoirs at 97%, where did the water come from? ground water levels at normal too. Love the CMC GFS ten day rain totals, dry spell cancel

 

 

Yep, water tables are fine.

 

But don't let facts get in the way of a good hype story.

 

 

If we go into mid June without another drop of rain, then I'll entertain the possibility that there could be some water issues later this summer...but in all seriousness, we don't do droughts here really. The 1960s had some. We've been so wet the last 15 years in New England that anything below normal probably feels like a drought...but it isn't.

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I think you missed the point. Our environment can handle these swings (maybe not manicured lawns but they aren't natural), it's not overly uncommon to be up by 15" in a year and then go down by 15" in a year.

 

 

Yep, water tables are fine.

 

But don't let facts get in the way of a good hype story.

 

 

If we go into mid June without another drop of rain, then I'll entertain the possibility that there could be some water issues later this summer...but in all seriousness, we don't do droughts here really. The 1960s had some. We've been so wet the last 15 years in New England that anything below normal probably feels like a drought...but it isn't.

just forget its a lost cause, if his lawn has a brown spot its a drought. Scientists and those who think scientifically know the difference between dry and drought.

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Great forecast by Joe. Been mostly sunny all day. 

he forecasts for all of Ct and I believe this would be his stations location, no?

New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport
	
E
20	13:53	NW 10 G 23	10.00	Mostly Cloudy	SCT048 BKN250	61	39	63	55	44%	NA	NA	29.85	1010.7			
20	12:53	NW 13 G 26	10.00	Mostly Cloudy	SCT044 BKN250	62	40			44%	NA	NA	29.85	1010.7			
20	11:53	NW 12 G 20	10.00	Mostly Cloudy	BKN044	60	41			50%	NA	NA	29.85	1010.8			
20	10:53	NW 9 G 20	10.00	Mostly Cloudy	BKN041 BKN250	58	42			56%	NA	NA	29.85	1010.8			
20	09:53	NW 12 G 18	10.00	Overcast	BKN035 BKN080 OVC250	57	42			58%	NA	NA	29.87	1011.3			
20	08:53	NW 8	10.00	Overcast	OVC031	56	45			67%	NA	NA	29.86	1010.9			
20	07:53	Vrbl 5	10.00	Overcast	BKN039 OVC250	55	46	59	52	72%	NA	NA	29.83	1010.1	
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just forget its a lost cause, if his lawn has a brown spot its a drought. Scientists and those who think scientifically know the difference between dry and drought.

Science schmience Go hype or go home

What effect would a huge drought have on New England anyway? Farmers would have trouble with their livelihood, but most of the food consumed here is not grown here.

Ballfields would be brown...

That's about it

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Science schmience Go hype or go home

What effect would a huge drought have on New England anyway? Farmers would have trouble with their livelihood, but most of the food consumed here is not grown here.

Ballfields would be brown...

That's about it

 

 

Reservoirs would get low...so there would be some water restrictions. But yes, the impacts are mostly nuisance impacts rather than serious ones like they get out west or in the plains sometimes. We had drought in the mid 1960s, but we don't hear tales of it like we do the 1930s plains dust bowl or the 1950s Texas drought or the even current California drought.

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Reservoirs would get low...so there would be some water restrictions. But yes, the impacts are mostly nuisance impacts rather than serious ones like they get out west or in the plains sometimes. We had drought in the mid 1960s, but we don't hear tales of it like we do the 1930s plains dust bowl or the 1950s Texas drought or the even current California drought.

the hydrologists who monitors the Quabbin yesterday was quoted in the paper as saying it could not rain a drop for the next 5-6 years and we would still be ok, its a total non issue here, some spring normal brush fires and brown lawns.

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