CoastalWx Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 Frosty start to Mem weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 12z NAM has some training convection tomorrow morning/midday across a good chunk of SNE. Pretty wet actually. That would be a welcome site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 12z NAM has some training convection tomorrow morning/midday across a good chunk of SNE. Pretty wet actually. That would be a welcome site. It's got .75-1.0 in this area. Hopefully it's correct..but color me skeptical. That would be a Godsend right about now. this little voice keeps telling me everything is N and W and maybe far SE..but in convection you really never know until it sets up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 Man that looks cold for Friday night and Sat morning....record lows maybe in some spots? Not often we flirt with 534 thicknesses this late. We are thinking of going to our house in the Poconos/Endless Mtns in extreme NE PA...Do you think a frost could be possible there at 1560' in a valley? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 We are thinking of going to our house in the Poconos/Endless Mtns in extreme NE PA...Do you think a frost could be possible there at 1560' in a valley?is it in a bowl or does the valley descend? If it's the latter it can be harder to radiate efficiently since the sfc cooling just drains down toward the lowest elevation it can find. Those high elevation lakes/ponds like around SLK tend to be bounded on all sides. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 Happy late May in James Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 SPC WRF is a soaker tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 is it in a bowl or does the valley descend? If it's the latter it can be harder to radiate efficiently since the sfc cooling just drains down toward the lowest elevation it can find. Those high elevation lakes/ponds like around SLK tend to be bounded on all sides. It is in a bowl bounded on all sides by higher mountains because the house is on a lake...the lake elevation is 1560' about 20 miles north of Honesdale, PA. Surrounding ridges are 1800-1900' with the highest peaks around 2400'-2600'. We radiate pretty well...I hit -20F there in Jan 2009 as well as Jan 2014 which is pretty cold for Pennsylvania. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 It is in a bowl bounded on all sides by higher mountains because the house is on a lake...the lake elevation is 1560' about 20 miles north of Honesdale, PA. Surrounding ridges are 1800-1900' with the highest peaks around 2400'-2600'. We radiate pretty well...I hit -20F there in Jan 2009 as well as Jan 2014 which is pretty cold for Pennsylvania. I would say you have a prettty good chance then of seeing a frost (or even a freeze) on Friday night there. 850 temps around 0C with high pressure almost overhead should be very cold in elevated rad spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 Happy late May in James Bay. image.jpg -16C 850s are pretty cold for late May...I imagine Hudson Bay may stay frozen for a while this year given the cold vortex in that area. I still think the -EPO is going to be a feature of the summer with a ridge over western CA/AK, and a trough just to our north. The big question is whether we'll be influenced more by a SE ridge/West Atlantic ridge or by that area of troughing directly to our north. That will determine anomalies in my mind this summer as I strongly expect a -EPO/+NAO/Eastern Canada ULL pattern to prevail. I would say you have a prettty good chance then of seeing a frost (or even a freeze) on Friday night there. 850 temps around 0C with high pressure almost overhead should be very cold in elevated rad spots. The recent model runs seem to be picking up more on a reinforcing high pressure on Friday evening/Saturday morning. This follows the initial CAA which is Tuesday night into Wednesday morning...NWS has a low of 49F here in Dobbs Ferry Wednesday night. I imagine Saturday morning could also be colder than the NWS projected low for Southern Westchester, which is 51F. I'm thinking 46-48F is possible here on Saturday morning with 33-35F at our place in PA. My mom is going to be driving there Saturday morning so I told her to bring a jacket and prepare for a couple of chilly days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 18, 2015 Author Share Posted May 18, 2015 Glad I waited to plant the Tomatoes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 Glad I waited to plant the Tomatoes I put my tomatoes, peppers, and eggplants in here a few days ago...Dobbs Ferry has a significantly warmer climate on radiating nights than you, so should be fine. That being said, I'm definitely expecting mid 40s on Saturday morning, maybe upper 40s if there's some clouds around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 Seems like brutally cold snaps have been common during the 3rd week of May lately. Always in time to cause stress and anxiety around planting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 I've seen four of these D5.5 cold plumes get annihilated trying to model them < 4 days. Maybe this one stays... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted May 19, 2015 Share Posted May 19, 2015 We bang tommorrow PM and evening ? Pre-frontal trough and decent wind shear. Instability and attaining convective temps will be a big question. Western areas have the best shot I would think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 19, 2015 Share Posted May 19, 2015 We turn wet? lol. Nice 5-10" zone over the southern Greens on the weenie convective maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted May 19, 2015 Share Posted May 19, 2015 Glad I waited to plant the Tomatoes I don't always plant tomatoes, but when I do, I wait until the very end of May. A frost in mid-late May is pretty uncommon around here, but it happens. Still get 90+ days of growing time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 19, 2015 Share Posted May 19, 2015 My god. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 19, 2015 Share Posted May 19, 2015 That's a bigtime warmup Memorial Day and all of next week. Right back into the 80's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 19, 2015 Share Posted May 19, 2015 Have to make sure that front doesn't hang up nearby on Monday like the EC ensembles have. That's dam chilly Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 19, 2015 Share Posted May 19, 2015 Have to make sure that front doesn't hang up nearby on Monday like the EC ensembles have. That's dam chilly Saturday morning. Are ENS warm like the op for all of next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 19, 2015 Share Posted May 19, 2015 Are ENS warm like the op for all of next week? Well the real heat looks to stay south, but verbatim seems mild to warm. But, you can see a subtle signature of some sort of front possibly nearby to the south. It actually might be a pattern to deliver some rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted May 19, 2015 Share Posted May 19, 2015 Well the real heat looks to stay south, but verbatim seems mild to warm. But, you can see a subtle signature of some sort of front possibly nearby to the south. It actually might be a pattern to deliver some rains. Yeah, there are several caution flags for heat next week. With the ridge placement MID Atlantic looks better. We could have BD potential as well as frontal boundaries convection etc., Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 19, 2015 Author Share Posted May 19, 2015 Yeah, there are several caution flags for heat next week. With the ridge placement MID Atlantic looks better. We could have BD potential as well as frontal boundaries convection etc.,Euro Ens are wet and cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted May 19, 2015 Share Posted May 19, 2015 Man that looks cold for Friday night and Sat morning....record lows maybe in some spots? Not often we flirt with 534 thicknesses this late. 520s for AUG, and 850 down around -7, which might make a frost even on the hilltop AP there. My median date for spring's last frost is 5/23, so that would fit perfectly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 19, 2015 Share Posted May 19, 2015 Euro Ens are wet and coolNo they aren't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted May 19, 2015 Share Posted May 19, 2015 There is some members that are cooler, but amjority looked above normal but the highest departures further south. Not a slam dunk in either direction yet. I would lean slightly AN but be cautious of BD and stalled boundaries etc., Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 19, 2015 Share Posted May 19, 2015 There is some members that are cooler, but amjority looked above normal but the highest departures further south. Not a slam dunk in either direction yet. I would lean slightly AN but be cautious of BD and stalled boundaries etc., I don't think we see big heat for more than a day or 2..but the pattern next week certainly looks anything but wet and cool. June looks very warm too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 19, 2015 Author Share Posted May 19, 2015 Chamber folks gearing up for a picture perfect week of low dews normal temps. Clear clean polar air. Perfect, Windows wide open, smell of Lilacs wafting through. Love it, Dew the Dew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 19, 2015 Share Posted May 19, 2015 There is a sneaky heat signal in here for next week... It depends... could see us being hung up like right in the core of the westerlies over the top of the SE ridge and that might make things less warm by more interesting convectively. But if the rim of that ridge does nudge in we may get wafted for a couple of days by solid 93/67 type stuff... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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