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Model discussion for May


Ginx snewx

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Seems like we avoid any prolonged big heat or humidity. The teleconnections do have a bit of ridging off the coast of New England, but that NW Yukon.AK ridge just continues unabated. Not gonna get prolonged heat with that. Ensembles keep tempering any prolonged stretches. It doesn't mean a day or two of 87/65 can't sneak in, but it doesn't seem like a classic pattern for heat. More COC.

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Pretty much no end in sight to warm and dry..Nothing chilly..just continued early summer warmth ..and dry, dry dry

 

 

Looking at the long range forecast charts - the weather continues to look spectacular through Memorial Day. At or above normal temperatures, lots of sun, and relatively low humidity. We really can't ask for much more (although some rain would be nice).

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We may be settling ...or just beginning to sniff it out, into the notion of a low amplitude +PNAP type summer circulation. 

This type tends to shunt heat S and we see a predominating middle Canadian shield NW flow in the means. Much like last summer.. .In fact, both may merely be continuations of their preceding winters, just in modulated downward form consistent with weaker gradients et al. I discussed this at length in impromptu seasonal outlook type prose.  

 

The -EPO in the operational GFS is hard to ignore, and really does hearken to the winter. It doesn't mean the whole summer, but it shouldn't be there this late either.  Stubborn...and this seemed to characterize last JJA, too. If you take that circulation ...middle/extended, and drop it 30 deg of latitude, it's right back into mid Feb all over again. 

 

There is a caveat tho, ..speculative. I have been noticing that the Bermuda semi-permanent geopotential positive region is a bit more robust ... I'm not sure if things central/W  back off at times and then we see that sucker burgeon in an influence. That's bit different if using the two summers as comparatives.  May just oscillated between the two facets.  

 

The other thing is that something truly bizarre is happened in the total AAM.  Looks like calculation and/or instrumentation error, or both... but field's suddenly broken down and collapsed all together on both sides of the equator and latitudes.  If there is any truth to a -AAM, then jet strengths over all should be weakening and that could also herald in subtropical ridge strengths.  

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it's green as Kermit now

I understand, but here is one thing I don't get; being down in FL it can be humid and green down here and they still burn. What is different about a New England green up which makes fire non existent after May, yet they get fires here in a somewhat tropical environment? Fuels?

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I understand, but here is one thing I don't get; being down in FL it can be humid and green down here and they still burn. What is different about a New England green up which makes fire non existent after May, yet they get fires here in a somewhat tropical environment? Fuels?

 

We get plenty of brush fires here if it's dry enough. Green fuels burn when the temp is hot enough.

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I understand, but here is one thing I don't get; being down in FL it can be humid and green down here and they still burn. What is different about a New England green up which makes fire non existent after May, yet they get fires here in a somewhat tropical environment? Fuels?

much more combustible vegetation very prone to minor dry periods, tropical grasses and plants need constant water and dry up very quickly during extended drought.
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Why would you post the forecast for Boston when you don't live anywhere near there or their climate? Your local forecast have 70's all week

 

How is what he posted different then when you post Noyes's forecast?  Noyes's forecast is more for the Boston area, yet you see his forecast and post a similar type statement.

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yeah, that's pretty silly-one forecast high temp for ALL of New England.  LOL.  How often is every spot in NE within even 5 degrees of a given temp?

 

Yeah I think the numbers are actually for Lowell, MA if I'm not mistaken? Some type of weighted geographic/population central part of New England. Thought I heard that somewhere.

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